February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[qg_omega]

  On 2/25/2018 at 2:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just trying to understand this: not that anyone should analyze the cmc but from a theoretical aspect....can someone explain to me how that is rain on the 0z cmc at 12z Friday? mid 925 and 850 seem cold enough for snow...is this a case of silly surface algorithms gone wrong?

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No look at the low level flow

[Hoth]

Man, this has just been a really wet stretch. No drought concerns as we head into sping, that's for sure.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Im thinking this could be a dynamically cooled elevation event in many areas

Blue hills 33 paste while Scott is 37 and rain

[Hoth]

GFS way south at H5 relative to the last couple runs.

[dryslot]

12z GFS is a furnace over the MA, Going to be south of the 06z run.

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/25/2018 at 2:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just trying to understand this: not that anyone should analyze the cmc but from a theoretical aspect....can someone explain to me how that is rain on the 0z cmc at 12z Friday? mid 925 and 850 seem cold enough for snow...is this a case of silly surface algorithms gone wrong?

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The GEFS and the end of the EURO run show some good potential for SNE for the day 10 threat. PNA will be close to Neutral and EPO will be negative. 

There is also. Day 15 threat coming into the picture. Not sweating the upcoming weekend system whether it his Maine or DC. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:05 PM, dryslot said:

12z GFS is a furnace, Going to be south of the 06z run.

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Yup.  It's trying but we are relying on a dynamically cooled event to make it snow.  Antecedent airmass is garbage with the primary so far west over the GL.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:04 PM, Hoth said:

GFS way south at H5 relative to the last couple runs.

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If we had a decent airmass in place thats a becs.

[dryslot]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:07 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yup.  It's trying but we are relying on a dynamically cooled event to make it snow.  Antecedent airmass is garbage with the primary so far west over the GL.

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Winds out of the SW are not what anyone would be looking for to see snow.

[Hoth]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we had a decent airmass in place thats a becs.

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Yep, we'd be taping yardsticks together.

[MJO812]

CMC is a big coastal rainstorm

Surface is too warm.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:09 PM, Hoth said:

Yep, we'd be taping yardsticks together.

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 Could be taping paddles together in some locations.

[Hoth]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we had a decent airmass in place thats a becs.

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Hell, if we just had an average early March airmass. Go figure we just torch for weeks on end.

[Hoth]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:11 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Could be taping paddles together in some locations.

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Dig out the sump pumps.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:08 PM, dryslot said:

Winds out of the SW are not what anyone would be looking for to see snow.

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Unless that's where the cold air is coming from. 

[dryslot]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:12 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Unless that's where the cold air is coming from. 

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lol

[CT Rain]

That's a QPF bomb

[dendrite]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:08 PM, dryslot said:

Winds out of the SW are not what anyone would be looking for to see snow.

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SWFE!

[dryslot]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:14 PM, dendrite said:

SWFE!

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Over a SWFE air mass!!!

[dendrite]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:14 PM, CT Rain said:

That's a QPF bomb

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Anymore liquid up here and Legro will be using freshets in his AFDs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Good luck all

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:14 PM, dendrite said:

SWFE!

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But I thought this was a Miller B. 

[dryslot]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:17 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

But I thought this was a Miller B. 

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Miller F

[HoarfrostHubb]

March 2010 incoming

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:16 PM, dendrite said:

Anymore liquid up here and Legro will be using freshets in his AFDs.

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Come down here.   This is since Jan 1.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:19 PM, dryslot said:

Miller F

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Miller 

Miller 

Miller 

[dendrite]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:17 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

But I thought this was a Miller B. 

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Zima B

[NorEastermass128]

Seems like we either whiff or get a 39F rainstorm. I’m all set with the latter. 

[dryslot]

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/25/2018 at 4:25 PM, dryslot said:

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100% approved @Ginx snewx