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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 2/25/2018 at 3:27 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

 As Ray stated earlier, tASs should become more locked in soon er than some of the earlier in the season crap

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The Big block Could Lock this in as soon as Late Monday thou we gotta see that SW Ejection and strength consistent

Just hoping this doesnt Shift south

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  On 2/25/2018 at 3:26 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Shoveling virtual snow is much easier yet less satisfying than shoveling real snow.

 

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I prefer the more strenuous real snow

  On 2/25/2018 at 3:34 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The Big block Could Lock this in as soon as Late Monday thou we gotta see that SW Ejection and strength consistent

Just hoping this doesnt Shift south

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How soon or late that s/w gets ejected out of the SW with the retrograding block will determine the areas that will be affected, Sooner is better then later.

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  On 2/25/2018 at 4:15 AM, wxsniss said:

Corroborating the relationship:
Even as early as 72hrs you can see s/w energy ejecting from southwest is slower... and so we get a more south solution

This will fluctuate a lot this far out, ensembles carry most weight now

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The timing of that s/w is all you really need to see to give you a good idea of where it will track.

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  On 2/25/2018 at 4:21 AM, dryslot said:

Torched mid levels on that 0z GFS run, Flooding rains over the SE areas.

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I’m surprised people are so confident on this system given how far out and marginal it is.

I’m not confident. This could easily be a huge rainstorm for SNE. That is absolutely on the table.

Whether it’s slow fast, whatever, it doesn’t matter, airmass isn’t great

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  On 2/25/2018 at 4:31 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m surprised people are so confident on this system given how far out and marginal it is.

I’m not confident. This could easily be a huge rainstorm for SNE. That is absolutely on the table.

Whether it’s slow fast, whatever, it doesn’t matter, airmass isn’t great

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I have more problems then worrying about the air mass, I'm taking a page out of the MPM handbook, We could snow up here if we have the qpf..........lol

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