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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2018 at 10:24 PM, codfishsnowman said:

feb 2010 was hiddeous down here....I don't know about this one, even if it goes south it may not be that amazing for snow lovers but I am sure there will be 50 foot seas south of bid and mtp

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The 92 storm had nothing in Springfield and Agawam where I had an office, drove home to 18 inches and made the mistake of trying to go going to Worcester, never made it, trucks were jackknifed on the road, traffic was stalled, had to be snowing 3+ an hour while I sat in traffic in Auburn. Hope this one's more widespread if it happens.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Several mentions of SST’s being important for this—and March being a favored month (for obvious reasons).

I took a look at some of the buoy reports from Boston to Portland ME, and sst’s are around 40 which appeared quite warm to me—basically on par with what I was accustomed to while living on LI. 

Checked the anomalies and this makes sense. Perhaps an early January ocean SST-wise versus early March? Warmer BL temps, higher qpf amounts? 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2018 at 11:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I get that...it won't be represented by a pronounced thermal gradient, but I would think with a highly we'd have some ageo drain.

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 Yeah I mean I could see some convergence.  I think for you though, your latitude will help with Northeast flow right out of Maine.  Anyways I hate commenting on something so far out, but just saying.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/24/2018 at 11:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

 Yeah I mean I could see some convergence.  I think for you though, your latitude will help with Northeast flow right out of Maine.  Anyways I hate commenting on something so far out, but just saying.

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Its all hypothetical....model output.

Yea, I envision tucky.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Crazy easterly flow distribution to the QPF... speed convergence over Eastern Mass into the ORH Hills and then also goes ape-sh*t over the eastern slopes of the Catskills.  That area of the Catskills is outside this regional forum but often gets destroyed in these events.  They had 20-40" in Dec 1992 while ALB had 6". 

This is just a 24-hour snapshot...crazy.

0szOkog.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Intensity driven flip for any one without Elevation, matters much more this storm than a typical Noreaster. Need a ENE wind with some advecting lower DPs. If this follows the 92 type storms there will be downsloping precip mins. Highly favors any rise in elevation. The marine air influence of a due East wind would be a worst case scenario way west . Appears that with a deepening 5H below us with 8h and 7h below us as modeled we should have ENE to NE winds at all levels, just need the Omega 

 

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