February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Really impressive AO flux over the next week. Just goes into the tank and then rebounds sharply after next weekend.

We do start getting a bit of a western ridge in the 11-15 so I think that will end up prolonging winter threats. We still have residual higher heights too up around Hudson Bay. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Tip's favorite spring was 2005. 

LOL, 03 is up there too. How about June 09?

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Please no

2001 was not that bad for NYC area. NYC still received 3 to 6 and coastal CT 6 to 12.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some guidance has shown a more East west gradient to snowfall. We’ve seen it before, but it’s been a while. Something where Eastern ma rains and SW CT snows.

North of the pike is better, but I don’t think they are out of the woods by any stretch. Several runs over the last couple and illustrate how this could be a turd there as well. Respect the suck airmass.

Basically 2009 2010 season. SwCT with 133 % average snowfall for the winter.

In the Feb 2010 storm Greenwich received 15

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2001 was not that bad for NYC area. NYC still received 3 to 6 and coastal CT 6 to 12.

 

All relative I guess when you were expecting feet and feet.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

All relative I guess when you were expecting feet and feet.

I guess. I try to look at the glass half full. Like 2015 was forecasted to get 36 and got 7. However was actually happy with the 7.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Very similar to 3/01.  I’d feel good north of the pike right now.

You realize I hope 03 2001 was sweet for many of us south of the Pike. Buckle up

[EastonSN+]

Teleconnections are steady with a deep -NAO and AO reflection.

As time goes on the blocking relaxes but continues as negative while the PNA rises to neutral or slightly positive AND the EPO goes negative. If the 1st storm opportunity is suppressed it looks like a more favorable time slot will occur more towards mid month.

I for one would love a blizzard followed by record warmth through spring.

[Ginx snewx]

We 2013 , Springs locked up for a while

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5

2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2013

[WeatherFeen2000]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5

2001, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013

Did those years produce any blizzards?

[Ginx snewx]

You guys and gals who cash in on anomalous East flow events should be feeling pretty good right now.

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You realize I hope 03 2001 was sweet for many of us south of the Pike. Buckle up

It was ok south but absolutely epic north.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was ok south but absolutely epic north.

 I was in Bethel Maine for both 3 foot plusses in 01 Feb and March. 18 at home 03 2001.  850 east inflow suggests to me some big numbers will be coming out again.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs right over NYC at hr 138.

[dendrite]

Bam.  Congrats ORH

[CoastalWx]

That is a tempest. Rain to Paste+

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sucks, cuz the waa would be rain of like 1” qpf then the flip the snow happens but...

[CoastalWx]

Sweet Mary and Joseph sign me up.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Bam.  Congrats ORH

You know there is no way ORH doesnt cash in, that place is magical with coastals.

[weathafella]

That would salvage an annoying winter!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At least we know gfs is never rigt in these setups, esp at day 5.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guys and gals who cash in on anomalous East flow events should be feeling pretty good right now.

Hello 

[NorEastermass128]

Adios Motif #1 on that run. Wow!!

The surge and wind potential is enormous on that setup. Screw any snow. 

[wxeyeNH]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Adios Motif #1 on that run. Wow!!

The surge and wind potential is enormous on that setup. Screw any snow. 

Full moon coming up.  Very high tides March 1/2/3

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Big time rain event down here

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Big time rain event down here

You would be pasted well. Stop with the pretty colored ptype maps.

[ice1972]

That storm at 120+ is an absolute mess......just like this winter.....#WheresMorch?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ice1972 said:

That storm at 120+ is an absolute mess......just like this winter.....#WheresMorch?

[weathafella]

CMC of the same ilk!