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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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you know the GGEM wasn't terribly far from that ... It's gotta deep anomaly parked in a similar spot.. just happens to be off enough with timing to spare the coherent surface bomb... 

both solution are pinned in position underneath their respective impressions on the west based NAO at the time....  

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what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

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  On 2/22/2018 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

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pretty sure its just an uber weenie euro ensemble member 

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  On 2/22/2018 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

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CONTROL -  The member of the ensemble obtained from the best initial analysis (the Control is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members in the ensemble).

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

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  On 2/22/2018 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

what the hell does "control run' mean ?  

I mean.. purely scientific speculation, I assume it to be forcing stuff for research - but, that sounds like the Kevin model to me. 

"Hey, Bill - psst. Come here and check this out when I flip this Miocene Epoch heat wave variable to on..." 

I mean, of course the we control the models to do what we want them to do, right?  Not sure what they would really be used for outside of a laboratory. 

Expand  

A dumbed down version of the op by which the ensembles are based off of. When the op doesn’t satisfy it becomes a weenie crutch.

 

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