February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[weathafella]

Ive enjoyed the dissolution of all the salt.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said:

March 2012 is not walking through that door. 

Expand  

Don’t remember 

[Hazey]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:15 AM, J Paul Gordon said:

That was a good month in NFL wasn't it? Nova Scotia too? Needless to say, it wasn't the best March ever here. The magnolias bloomed early due to the unnatural warmth and were killed by a hard frost within days. 

Yeah it was great here. Lots of temps in the 60's with several days in the 70's and high of 85. Burnt my nape that month. That is how you end a crappy winter with style.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said:

March 2012 is not walking through that door. 

Expand  

It’s a possibility 

[Damage In Tolland]

Was Ginx online today?

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a possibility 

Expand  

I doubt it. My guess is that ridge relaxes and we’ll get maybe some -NAO. It may not be a cold month, but perhaps a decent storm in the cards?

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Was Ginx online today?

 

Expand  

He was warned.

[codfishsnowman]

wasn't it supposed to be 50 yesterday?? I know I saw it for days in the p/c

[Baroclinic Zone]

Maybe we cash in on a bowling bowl. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:24 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe we cash in on a bowling bowl. 

Expand  

I don’t see one of those getting going for a while...

[dendrite]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:15 AM, codfishsnowman said:

wasn't it supposed to be 50 yesterday?? I know I saw it for days in the p/c

Expand  

Yup...backdoored.

I haven’t looked at much, but judging by that EPS H85 anomaly map there will be plenty of cold air lurking to our NE. I’m confident some of those warm days verify as backdoor garbage here. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Real winter weather basically lasted 10 days around here... late Dec into early Jan with the blizzard. Nothing doing really since then or before that.

Bring on those warm temps the Euro is spitting out. There is literally nothing exciting in the next few weeks on any guidance, they all look horrendous. Maybe we squeak a miracle in during early March... but I’m skeptical of that.

Good thing we got that blizzard to back in last minute, other than that... this winter has blown rats.

Also, the second most memorable moment of this “winter” was that absolute furnace the second weekend of JAN that decimated nearly 20 inches of snow

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/12/2018 at 12:26 AM, CoastalWx said:

March 2012 is not walking through that door. 

Expand  

Just looked.  What was so special about that month?  I see one event that occurred on the 1st and that’s it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:45 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Real winter weather basically lasted 10 days around here... late Dec into early Jan with the blizzard. Nothing doing really since then or before that.

Bring on those warm temps the Euro is spitting out. There is literally nothing exciting in the next few weeks on any guidance, they all look horrendous. Maybe we squeak a miracle in during early March... but I’m skeptical of that.

Good thing we got that blizzard to back in last minute, other than that... this winter has blown rats.

Also, the second most memorable moment of this “winter” was that absolute furnace the second weekend of JAN that decimated nearly 20 inches of snow

Expand  

Best of both worlds.  Climo snow and above normal temps 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:15 AM, codfishsnowman said:

wasn't it supposed to be 50 yesterday?? I know I saw it for days in the p/c

Expand  

54F yesterday 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:48 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just looked.  What was so special about that month?  I see one event that occurred on the 1st and that’s it.

Expand  

That month was the ultimate Morch.  80s.  Dry.  Snowless.  

My son was practiing baseball on dry fields towards the end of the month

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:51 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

That month was the ultimate Morch.  80s.  Dry.  Snowless.  

My son was practiing baseball on dry fields towards the end of the month

Expand  

Oh, I thought he was referring to the SSW bringing epicosity back for the month.  Exact opposite occurred.  Lol.  Bring it on.

[CapturedNature]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:51 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

That month was the ultimate Morch.  80s.  Dry.  Snowless.  

My son was practiing baseball on dry fields towards the end of the month

Expand  

I lost thousands on the maple season that year.  It took me years to recover from that both financially and the aftermath of the October storm.  Let's NOT repeat that.  Thankfully I don't think we will.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2018 at 1:45 AM, dendrite said:

Yup...backdoored.

I haven’t looked at much, but judging by that EPS H85 anomaly map there will be plenty of cold air lurking to our NE. I’m confident some of those warm days verify as backdoor garbage here. 

Expand  

There or here?

[Typhoon Tip]

despite that mid level appeal with that ridge and stuff on that EPS the 850 mb are comparatively chilly...   0C cuts east west through southern VT/NH as that ridge is ballooning...  Not sure what to make of that but that's not exceptionally warm in the lower troposphere.  

I just can't endorse much above seasonally above normal for many of the reasons I cited earlier... We have to be pretty much on top of those days before I trust ...particularly Euro genetics on the matter because as I said earlier, we routinely verify something less of that guidance' flame thrower appeals over the last three years really - SOMEthing always dims it.  Seeing the EPS' 850s sort of blase mild at best doesn't help that cause. 

[blizzard24]

To many are giving up winter im not and many will be in for surprise during late feb into march for sne area and i95 area.  some dont trust me but  models have not been good this winter in long range . I think nao- is coming and expect cold march  . i also say least three good snowstorms for sne area and i expect  snow for I-95 area from dc area north with get snow too. when last time they didnt get any snowstorms in the winter season its is very hard.  pay back is coming .

[TheSnowman]

Ray Prediction in Early November:  

1. Winter will be pretty good in December.                                                                                                                       A bit off, but Alight.  

2. Possible snow on Christmas Day.                                                                                                                                 Dead Nuts Accurate for a day that Never snows.  

3. Best Chance for a KU is December 24th - January 8th.                                                                                                   Dead Nuts Accurate.              

4. The Rest of January will Suck.                                                                                                                                     Dead Nuts Accurate.  

5. February will Suck.                                                                                                                                                     Dead Nuts Accurate (and continuing to be).  

6. I'm Very confident in March being Good.                                                                                                                      ?......  So RELAX!!  

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 2/12/2018 at 6:28 AM, TheSnowman said:

Ray Prediction in Early November:  

1. Winter will be pretty good in December.                                                                                                                       A bit off, but Alight.  

2. Possible snow on Christmas Day.                                                                                                                                 Dead Nuts Accurate for a day that Never snows.  

3. Best Chance for a KU is December 24th - January 8th.                                                                                                   Dead Nuts Accurate.              

4. The Rest of January will Suck.                                                                                                                                     Dead Nuts Accurate.  

5. February will Suck.                                                                                                                                                     Dead Nuts Accurate (and continuing to be).  

6. I'm Very confident in March being Good.                                                                                                                      ?......  So RELAX!!  

 

 

Expand  

Seems like alot of people are expecting a good March.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2018 at 10:28 AM, Snow88 said:

Seems like alot of people are expecting a good March.

Expand  

Haven’t seen many. Few and far between. Many expected a good Feb

[dendrite]

Euro fail for Friday. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/12/2018 at 10:43 AM, dendrite said:

Euro fail for Friday. 

Expand  

???  failed what?

Box going 52* Thurs, 42* Fri at the Pit.

[weathafella]

  On 2/12/2018 at 10:54 AM, moneypitmike said:

???  failed what?

Box going 52* Thurs, 42* Fri at the Pit.

Expand  

Heat.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2018 at 10:43 AM, dendrite said:

Euro fail for Friday. 

Expand  

55-60 Thursday really isn't a fail

[CoastalWx]

Not surprised but I’m sure we’ll have a chance with that ridge over the next two weeks. Also backdoor chances.

[LurkerBoy]

Based on long range models and my weenie intuition, I'm putting a fork in this winter. Any guesses to where it ends up on the list of warmest? (or is it not close?)