February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[dryslot]

A lot colder, Looks to get snow down into SNE at least to start this run.

[dryslot]

Thats going to push max totals up here in NNE in the 8-12" range.

[weathafella]

We have a thread for the event.   

[powderfreak]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:12 PM, dryslot said:

Thats going to push max totals up here in NNE in the 8-12" range.

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NNE has always been in the 8-12" on the EURO for like 5 straight runs .

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:13 PM, weathafella said:

We have a thread for the event.   

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UK met is cold and drops between a half and .8 North to south Mass to Ct most on the Cape. A 6 to 10 er

[dryslot]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:14 PM, powderfreak said:

NNE has always been in the 8-12" on the EURO for like 5 straight runs .

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It was snow to ice here so, No not everyone.

[weathafella]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:14 PM, Ginx snewx said:

UK met is cold and drops between a half and .8 North to south Mass to Ct most on the Cape. A 6 to 10 er

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Euros not far off from that.

[powderfreak]

That's a big change on the EURO...

Kuchie snow totals just for fun for the two snowstorms (this evening and Wednesday).

 

[Bostonseminole]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2-5" is reasonable for starters in this area. 

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agree at this point

[dryslot]

Euro would deliver another Hybrid SWFE next weekend with similar amounts.

[Bostonseminole]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:19 PM, powderfreak said:

That's a big change on the EURO...

Kuchie snow totals just for fun for the two snowstorms (this evening and Wednesday).

 

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if we can just push that south another 20 miles

[CoastalWx]

Euro went wild next weekend. I'd sell that depiction.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:36 PM, dryslot said:

Euro would deliver another Hybrid SWFE next weekend with similar amounts.

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"The bus came by and I got on, that's when it all began..."

[dryslot]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:40 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

"The bus came by and I got on, that's when it all began..."

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Your area to here does quite well in these, 2007 we had numerous events, If things break right with these next two, I will be over climo for this winter, Weds may even get me close to it if i jack max totals.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually.. .the Euro for D7 is a NJ model bomb... not a isentropic overrunning snow so much

[Typhoon Tip]

it 'bout the only way to get a coastal storm out of such a pancaked screaming compression.  And Scott's right - sell...

if one's gambling that's the lesser plausible scenario in such a fast flow. The model has to be meticulously correct about a great many variables at a rather uneasy amount of lead time.  good luck... Hey, could happen...that's the only take away.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 7:04 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually.. .the Euro for D7 is a NJ model bomb... not a isentropic overrunning snow so much

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Also a rainstorm in sne

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/4/2018 at 6:19 PM, powderfreak said:

That's a big change on the EURO...

Kuchie snow totals just for fun for the two snowstorms (this evening and Wednesday).

 

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Wildcat for the win.

 

Considering there's bupkis from today, if those totals play out Wednesday will be nice.  I look forward to reading about it from MI.

33.2/22

[tavwtby]

Snowing rather heavily ATM in Winsted points west, although it's 35* and melting, it looks nice... shame, Feb 5th, and another missed opportunity, hopefully Wednesday pans out colder, still about 30" from climo here

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/4/2018 at 7:26 PM, tavwtby said:

Snowing rather heavily ATM in Winsted points west, although it's 35* and melting, it looks nice... shame, Feb 5th, and another missed opportunity, hopefully Wednesday pans out colder, still about 30" from climo here

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Nice.   Just starting here.  Already 33.4/24 but perhaps may grab an inch before a changover if all goes well.

Edit:  looks like a little evaporational cooling taking place, temps dipped to 32.4/23

[tavwtby]

  On 2/4/2018 at 7:35 PM, moneypitmike said:

Nice.   Just starting here.  Already 33.4/24 but perhaps may grab an inch before a changover if all goes well.

Edit:  looks like a little evaporational cooling taking place, temps dipped to 32.4/23

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Surprisingly sticking and rates are good, maybe we can hold on for a while to pad the stats...

[ORH_wxman]

A lot of guidance now is showing a weak system coming through on late Friday that couple drop 1-3".

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/5/2018 at 6:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of guidance now is showing a weak system coming through on late Friday that couple drop 1-3".

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You think we have any more snow shots after this weekend 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2018 at 6:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

You think we have any more snow shots after this weekend 

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Well considering there is still almost 3 weeks left in the month this weekend, I don't see why not. Maybe have to watch Feb 13-14...still out in clown range but the pattern could support another overrunning or SWFE type system. Hopefully it doesn't end up a cutter. Euro has it as a weak overrunning system right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/5/2018 at 6:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well considering there is still almost 3 weeks left in the month this weekend, I don't see why not. Maybe have to watch Feb 13-14...still out in clown range but the pattern could support another overrunning or SWFE type system. Hopefully it doesn't end up a cutter. Euro has it as a weak overrunning system right now.

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I’m hearing it’s almost over from some mets . Wasn’t sure what they were talking about 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope Feb 12-20 is quiet for selfish reasons.....the weekend of March 10, too.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2018 at 6:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m hearing it’s almost over from some mets . Wasn’t sure what they were talking about 

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Well to be fair, its a pretty ugly pattern south of here. So if the mets were talking about mid-atlantic or just the east coast in general, I could sort of see it....but we might be fine. No guarantee though...we could end up skunked too if some of these cut.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2018 at 7:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, its a pretty ugly pattern south of here. So if the mets were talking about mid-atlantic or just the east coast in general, I could sort of see it....but we might be fine. No guarantee though...we could end up skunked too if some of these cut.

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What are your thoughts on the SSW possibility?

[qg_omega]

what about the Euro over the weekend?  Looks like a weak rain storm with a low over Buffalo, what am I missing? Similar to GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2018 at 7:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What are your thoughts on the SSW possibility?

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I feel like its starting to become irrelevant...by the time it happens (if it does at all), it will be too late to matter a whole lot...maybe it will extend a winter pattern in late March...certainly possible. I suppose if it goes bonkers in the next week, maybe we will reap some rewards earlier in early March. But right now, the stratosphere looks frigid. Maybe the warming the Euro shows after the split vortex out beyond D5 will happen...I dunno.