February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. on board for decent snow Wed in some of the area.

[Ginx snewx]

Sun came out shot up to 38 degrees 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:02 PM, dryslot said:

Looks like some ice up this way as well, With that high to the north, I'm looking for this to tick some more south over the next day or two and remain all snow.

Expand  

Agree.

[Bostonseminole]

  On 2/4/2018 at 3:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

That's several inches of snow near the NH border with some ice likely. 

Expand  

yeah, looks like northern towns do ok, I think this trends colder still 

[Bostonseminole]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. on board for decent snow Wed in some of the area.

Expand  

yeah

[Bostonseminole]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:02 PM, dryslot said:

Looks like some ice up this way as well, With that high to the north, I'm looking for this to tick some more south over the next day or two and remain all snow.

Expand  

you should do well, i'm hoping for 2-4" at best but will see.. Kids want a day off lol

[CoastalWx]

GEM colder too.

[ORH_wxman]

We don't toss ggem either. Tickle colder on that model too. 

[dryslot]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:07 PM, Bostonseminole said:

you should do well, i'm hoping for 2-4" at best but will see.. Kids want a day off lol

Expand  

Yeah, It looks like a classic SWFE up here with 6-10", I think you should be able to achieve that number and wouldn't be surprised if you add another couple as we get closer.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

GEM colder too.

Expand  

Sfc low track on ggem makes a lot more sense. That squeeze south. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc low track on ggem makes a lot more sense. That squeeze south. 

Expand  

Yeah right near canal. 

[CoastalWx]

#popelow bringing it at 12z. 

[Whineminster]

  On 2/4/2018 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would be pretty classic SWFE. Good burst of advisory snow on the front with big CAD over the interior leading to prob a lot of icing. 

Theres a pretty good high north of CAR as the system comes in so we will have to watch. If that high position does not change, then frequently we will see models tick colder as we get closer to go-time. 

Expand  

2008 Redux?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:10 PM, dryslot said:

Yeah, It looks like a classic SWFE up here with 6-10", I think you should be able to achieve that number and wouldn't be surprised if you add another couple as we get closer.

Expand  

Funny how I think powderfreak (or maybe it was someone else) was just talking about how we haven't had really any classic Niña SWFEs this winter which was kind of disappointing. They usually bring decent wintry wx to almost the whole forum except the south coast...but even sometimes down there can get a thump. 

Maybe this is the one finally. I hope it doesn't trend too far west though...that's my only fear I think. That it tries to ride into western NY or something which would leave the good WAA dynamics too far west so we don't get a thump. But I think so far the trough has had enough vorticity out to the east to keep some good dynamics and a sfc low redeveloping out there. Hopefully that continues. 

We have the ingredients in place though as long as the dynamics stay cooperative. We have good antecedent airmass, a good high location and good moisture feed. Just make sure the dynamics aren't shunted too far west with some uglier amped track. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’ll side with euro/gfs/ukie over the cmc. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there hope for snow or ice south of 90?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m getting confused by a lot of this morning’s discussion.  I am assuming most are just talking about Weds and today is a foregone conclusion.

Briefly saw the sun.  A few flakes.  35F

This pattern is pretty lame but hopefully we can get a moderate event Weds out of it.

I’m a -NAO disciple after yesterday

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there hope for snow or ice south of 90?

Expand  

I think so. Maybe not all ice, but a solid few inches of snow followed by some ice and brief cold rain? Could be net gainer where you are.

[dryslot]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how I think powderfreak (or maybe it was someone else) was just talking about how we haven't had really any classic Niña SWFEs this winter which was kind of disappointing. They usually bring decent wintry wx to almost the whole forum except the south coast...but even sometimes down there can get a thump. 

Maybe this is the one finally. I hope it doesn't trend too far west though...that's my only fear I think. That it tries to ride into western NY or something which would leave the good WAA dynamics too far west so we don't get a thump. But I think so far the trough has had enough vorticity out to the east to keep some good dynamics and a sfc low redeveloping out there. Hopefully that continues. 

Expand  

These SWFE's really spread out the wealth for many in this setup, We run the risk riding the gradient its a game of risk/reward, Having the high to the north as long as it remains gives you some confidence that this will track south rather then trying to cut thru upstate NY.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

I think so. Maybe not all ice, but a solid few inches of snow followed by some ice and brief cold rain? Could be net gainer where you are.

Expand  

I just called .. to say.. I love you 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

I think so. Maybe not all ice, but a solid few inches of snow followed by some ice and brief cold rain? Could be net gainer where you are.

Expand  

It's like he doesn't read any posts except his own and the replies to

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:36 PM, Ginx snewx said:

It's like he doesn't read any posts except his own and the replies to

Expand  

All yours have been posts about VT and MPM

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m getting confused by a lot of this morning’s discussion.  I am assuming most are just talking about Weds and today is a foregone conclusion.

Briefly saw the sun.  A few flakes.  35F

This pattern is pretty lame but hopefully we can get a moderate event Weds out of it.

I’m a -NAO disciple after yesterday

Expand  

Yeah today is hot garbage for SNE maybe outside of NW MA. Maybe some brief snow this afternoon in your hood at the start. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

All yours have been posts about VT and MPM

Expand  

VT?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc low track on ggem makes a lot more sense. That squeeze south. 

Expand  

Bump 

[weathafella]

Uncle?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m getting confused by a lot of this morning’s discussion.  I am assuming most are just talking about Weds and today is a foregone conclusion.

Briefly saw the sun.  A few flakes.  35F

This pattern is pretty lame but hopefully we can get a moderate event Weds out of it.

I’m a -NAO disciple after yesterday

Expand  

Today is disgusting feb Rain. The kind that reminds me this climo will never satisfy me.

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/4/2018 at 2:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

14 inches for the rest of the year with 7 weeks left, I will take the over

Expand  

I am about 6" behind you putting me at 20 needed.  I am not sure I will get 20"

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/4/2018 at 4:47 PM, weathafella said:

Uncle?

Expand  

It's right in that lousy 72-96 hr window of nothingness..unless others have it on a pay site. Seems not far from GFS or GEM?

[Lava Rock]

  On 2/4/2018 at 3:58 PM, dryslot said:

Lets get today out of the way, I'm ready for weds.

Sun trying to bust through here

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk