SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/3/2018 at 10:49 PM, jbenedet said: Clearly going to be another sheared out wave/cold frontal look. Still thinking most of SNE will be too warm for this The UL height anomalies along the Eastern CONUS are increasing run to run on the GFS. The 18z GFS continued this trend. That wasn’t a colder run; the 18z was warmer than 12z at the surface, 850 and H5. Expand If this shears out or trends weaker (which it probably will) you would think it would stay markedly more frozen than tomorrow's event because the high positioning and air mass in place proceeding it are better. Its still not ideal positioning of the high but its much better than tomorrow that you are not cranking south flow in up and down the East Coast before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 12:14 AM, powderfreak said: Yeah definitely. The GFS is the driest of the 3 main globals with the ECMWF and GGEM significantly wetter, despite different tracks. The one thing is it looks to be mostly warm air advection initiated. You could tell the GFS would be lighter and weaker as the H85 jet was significantly less and much later to develop, straight down into the southern Plains and southeast region. No cold conveyor belt, very SWFE style...I could see this limiting the upward potential of this to 10" or so. Which no one here would turn down but strikes me as one of those more uniform events in the snow zone. Not as much banding as stratiform precip. Expand That is usually the ceiling on a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 12:17 AM, SnowGoose69 said: If this shears out or trends weaker (which it probably will) you would think it would stay markedly more frozen than tomorrow's event because the high positioning and air mass in place proceeding it are better. Its still not ideal positioning of the high but its much better than tomorrow that you are not cranking south flow in up and down the East Coast before it. Expand We had almost the same hp on guidance for tomorrow’s event at day 4–it’s gone now, as the WAR trended stronger over time. I think a similar trend will happen this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Couple of those in 1978 one of which dropped well over a foot over a large area off a 1001 mb bag of Gulf pwat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 12:07 AM, jbenedet said: It already is sheared out. 1008 mb. Weak wave riding along a CF. That’s it. HP in eastern Canada is tenuous as is, and will not be in the picture at all by go time if the WAR builds the way I expect it to. Expand Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/3/2018 at 10:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where does this God live? Expand Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant....especially Boston points north and west.....and I 84 north and west. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 3:02 AM, Typhoon Tip said: It may not look like an idealized art on that run but particulars with that look would create a very proficient snow wall/IB ... that HP is quintessentially oriented for incurring WAA/isentrope event Expand Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd plan on at least some snow Wednesday...may be significant. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/rainy-monday-snow-possible-wednesday.html Expand Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:33 AM, DavisStraight said: Sounds like you're feeling it for weds Ray Expand As in something respectable, yes...could be the biggest since 1/4 for spots like my locale...not saying a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I don't have 500mb yet but the UKIE at 72 looks pretty darn flat with the precip over the TN valley area compared to the GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Doug Simonian had a nice piece on a potential SSW....I buy it, and expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Really like where we are headed...just takes time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 3:16 AM, 25thamendmentfan said: Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? Expand Obsessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:13 AM, Ginx snewx said: Obsessed Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 3:16 AM, 25thamendmentfan said: Mossup? Summer home in weekapaug? Expand Fyi it's Moosup, definitely not God's country, on the other hand Weekapug is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. I like Wednesday...not a blockbuster, but could herald the start of the second half. Expand Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone, gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 6:04 AM, Ginx snewx said: Fast and furious 10 days then I fear thermal gradients are gone, gulf closes. Thinking seasonable and dry 13th through 18th. Expand Good time for that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Bit of a reverse in trends last night for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 10:21 AM, CoastalWx said: Shades were opening, but back to closing again. Should be good for the mtns though. Expand Rays feeling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 11:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Rays feeling it Expand They'll be some front end snow, but wasn't exactly the trend I was hoping to see from 00z and 06z. NNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 1:59 AM, CoastalWx said: I’m not sure why we are forming some sort of linear relationship to low pressure mslp and the amount of moisture. I’ve seen sh*t lows deliver a ton of moisture thanks to isentropic lift. That depends more on the mid and upper levl flow. Whn you have a low from the Deep South, I’m usually not worried about its Mslp. Expand I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture? I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 11:28 AM, powderfreak said: I was thinking a stronger system would have increased jet dynamics and better low level conveyors... sort of like stronger low, stronger H7-H85 winds leading to increased lift/moisture? I was noticing it yesterday on the runs...drier runs had lower H85 winds and the wetter runs were stronger S/SW flow at that level. Expand I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope. My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday. They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours. Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 11:35 AM, CoastalWx said: I mean there is some of that, but I've seen a WF draped to our south with these POS waves running along it dump 1-2" of QPF before. If you have a nice high to the north and deep layer WAA...you don't need 70kts at 850 ramming into the region. Just good ole fashioned isentropic lift, aided by high pressure forming a nice frontal slope. My comments were more for the pope saying that it's only a 1008 mb low. The pressure is all relative to the ambient environmental pressure. It's silly to say "well it's only 1008mb.." as if that matters. Expand Ah that makes sense, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 11:38 AM, powderfreak said: Man the Euro EPS are looking real good this morning for all the mountains... that's a solid 5 day period between this evening's snow and then Wednesday. Out of the 50 individual members there isn't a lot of spread, much less than yesterday. They seem pretty dialed in but we know how that's gone this winter with performance in the last 84 hours. Just a widespread 1-1.5" QPF gain for the mountains as frozen over the next 4-5 days. Expand The S VT areas are not looking great tonight so need to cash in on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 It looks like Wednesday's start has been pushed back a few hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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