February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Lava Rock]

  On 2/1/2018 at 10:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

That is a furnaced snowless Rest of Feb if correct. Though my hunch is they have the MJO wrong. Especially with EPS so much colder today 

From a great upcoming stretch to junk...in less than a day. Glad I didn't get too emotionally involved

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Can't get too engrossed with the ensemble fluctuations ...been advocating for a later pattern flip than the guidance was suggesting for awhile.

However I don't by the latest abysmal runs either....still think things get more favorable mid month via EPO/PNA. 

[tavwtby]

Holy flakes!! They knock you out if one hits ya...

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM and GFS are pretty interesting for the interior next Wednesday...esp N ORH county to Berks...but even prob some decent snow southeast of that in the interior before a flip...def more CADish on those two 00z runs.

 

It's great for the S VT screwzone in recent winters.

[dryslot]

Sunday night-Monday right now just looks more like a weak FROPA with very little precip, With weds looking like the bigger player so far on tonight's runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:19 AM, dryslot said:

Sunday night-Monday right now just looks more like a weak FROPA with very little precip, With weds looking like the bigger player so far on tonight's runs.

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Both events blow as far as I'm concerned.

[SnowGoose69]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:16 AM, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM and GFS are pretty interesting for the interior next Wednesday...esp N ORH county to Berks...but even prob some decent snow southeast of that in the interior before a flip...def more CADish on those two 00z runs.

 

It's great for the S VT screwzone in recent winters.

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Its probably going to trend weaker as well just as Sunday more or less has.  Models may be showing the ideal track at this range now.  As a matter I'm worried they are not amped enough.  We may need the storm over Buffalo at Day 5

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Both events blow as far as I'm concerned.

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We CMC! , but I'd love some more 2 to 3 inch events. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:16 AM, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM and GFS are pretty interesting for the interior next Wednesday...esp N ORH county to Berks...but even prob some decent snow southeast of that in the interior before a flip...def more CADish on those two 00z runs.

 

It's great for the S VT screwzone in recent winters.

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Yep fits the routine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:24 AM, Ginx snewx said:

We CMC! , but I'd love some more 2 to 3 inch events. 

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I'm sick to death of that garbage...just enough to make me scramble to find time to blog about something I have zero interest in, yet not enough to warrant missing work.

I've had enough of the 1-3" parade....."pad the stats"...I couldn't give two terds whether its 32 or 36". Get me to 80" and we'll talk about that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll tell you...even though I'v expected it, I'm teetering.....Monday is trash, Wednesday is $hit....that gives me one more kick at the can before I depart for Uganda, and if I board that SOB before another appreciable event, I'm going to melt all the way across the atlantic onto another continet...I'll just unboard the plain and start chucking mangos at the first group I see.

[SnowGoose69]

Wednesday can be impacted by that little disturbance Tuesday as well which washes out on both the GFS/CMC.  If that holds together though it would slam into a better air mass than we have Wednesday.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:36 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you...even though I'v expected it, I'm teetering.....Monday is trash, Wednesday is $hit....that gives me one more kick at the can before I depart for Uganda, and if I board that SOB before another appreciable event, I'm going to melt all the way across the atlantic onto another continet...I'll just unboard the plain and start chucking mangos at the first group I see.

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Melt much? Actually despite you not liking anything but a wound up Noreaster you might be getting a repeat of what we had down here. I wouldn't throw a tantrum yet

[40/70 Benchmark]

3.5" in 30 days, while Steve makes naked snow doggies,  and Jeff drives over my corpse on a snowmobile.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3.5" in 30 days, while Steve makes naked snow doggies,  and Jeff drives over my corpse on a snowmobile.

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Lol. The Euro has been full of fail, lots of chatter across the nation. Wonder what they tampered with. 5h sure but sensible weather it's shat the bed. Very concerning

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:39 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Melt much? Actually despite you not liking anything but a wound up Noreaster you might be getting a repeat of what we had down here. I wouldn't throw a tantrum yet

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I'd be shocked if I score anything over 4".

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Lol. The Euro has been full of fail, lots of chatter across the nation. Wonder what they tampered with. 5h sure but sensible weather it's shat the bed. Very concerning

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All modeling has been worse...welcome to la nina.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All modeling has been worse...welcome to la nina.

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IDK Euro owned 2011 the year save a horse was born

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/2/2018 at 4:57 AM, Ginx snewx said:

IDK Euro owned 2011 the year save a horse was born

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I was thinking the same thing.  Before they did the upgrade, it was much better during the past La Niña’s.  It’s definitely not what it used to be at all.   

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 5:08 AM, WinterWolf said:

I was thinking the same thing.  Before they did the upgrade, it was much better during the past La Niña’s.  It’s definitely not what it used to be at all.   

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Multiple high level Doctorate Mets have made some very salient point's about it's waffling inside 96 

[ice1972]

I hate hate hate this winter......I melted weeks ago and so far it seems it was warranted.....the cold was a nice tease....the "blizzard" was pretty pedestrian really......and all that "chill ice...put down the bottle....theres plenty of time" seems very very wrong ATM......its such a mess....OK I'm done.....

[ice1972]

This isn't gonna go the way you think......

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunday night got a bit better for west of 95. Riding the line, but better trends . Still some work to do 

[CoastalWx]

You almost want this to be a front with a secondary developing like the euro op has. Probably unlikely, but may be best shot for anything interesting outside of far interior or NNE. 

[ineedsnow]

6Z gefs look nice for Wednesday

[moneypitmike]

This week is the last hope for redeeming this winter in GC.

 

I'll say it again.  In spite of a strong start, 2017-2018 sucks the big one in GC.

22.9/14

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/2/2018 at 11:05 AM, ineedsnow said:

6Z gefs look nice for Wednesday

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Pretty close to an interior event there. The euro stuff is rather amped. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/2/2018 at 11:10 AM, moneypitmike said:

This week is the last hope for redeeming this winter in GC.

 

I'll say it again.  In spite of a strong start, 2017-2018 sucks the big one in GC.

22.9/14

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Yeah, we have had what 2" of snow in the past 3 weeks?  Not how you want run the heart of winter. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/2/2018 at 11:42 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, we have had what 2" of snow in the past 3 weeks?  Not how you want run the heart of winter. 

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The string of stinky winters continues.  Oh well, less than 10 months until the start of met winter.

20.9/13

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/2/2018 at 11:42 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, we have had what 2" of snow in the past 3 weeks?  Not how you want run the heart of winter. 

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5.5" on the 17th was the last decent event and that was rather disappointing given the totals E of here.