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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 1/31/2018 at 11:25 PM, JC-CT said:

Looks like a typical fast flow pattern, no atlantic blocking and the pacific domains aren't quite strong enough to create a consistently good meridian flow. Shortwaves just trucking along, stopping only for pee breaks, drifting into whichever lane suits them at the moment.

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Waiting for that old reliable SWFE thump, thought this season was going to feature a few more of those.  They are the best way to deliver widespread in a fast flow although your hood obviously rides the line in those set ups.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:15 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Just because the pattern isn’t as cold and frigid as it looked, doesn’t change things. It’s still a massive change from AN to N to slightly below. We had zero chances of snow last 2 weeks. Now we have chance after chance. Will it be epic with massive snow or bitter cold thru Feb.. no. But it’ll be near to slightly BN with chances of snow before it flips warm in late Feb/ early Morch as long range stuff has. I’m with Will . We’ll take our chances . Will it rain to Maine .. yup.. Will it snow to Truro.. yup . Both will happen 

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Agree but rain to Maine less likely than snow to Truro imo.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:15 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Just because the pattern isn’t as cold and frigid as it looked, doesn’t change things. It’s still a massive change from AN to N to slightly below. We had zero chances of snow last 2 weeks. Now we have chance after chance. Will it be epic with massive snow or bitter cold thru Feb.. no. But it’ll be near to slightly BN with chances of snow before it flips warm in late Feb/ early Morch as long range stuff has. I’m with Will . We’ll take our chances . Will it rain to Maine .. yup.. Will it snow to Truro.. yup . Both will happen 

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Flips warm end of Feb where do you get this stuff. 5 day EPS ending March 2nd 

index (1).png

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:38 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Flips warm end of March where do you get this stuff. 5 day EPS ending March 2nd 

index (1).png

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Steve there’s pieces of guidance that show the cool pattern completely breaking down late month. Even Isotherm posted today that it’s heading that way. Let’s just hope these next 3 weeks give us good snow. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:19 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are usually the last location in SNE I worry about snowing.   How far are you from Petersham center?  That whole Quabbin hill town area is such a good snow zone.

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It’s around 15 miles by car..maybe 25 minutes from my house to the center.  I can get there by driving past Stone Cow brewery, which is a bonus!    Almost no snow on the ground here.  Patchy, maybe half inch.   We need some

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Isotherm is having a very very rough year

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How? December verified - colder/snowier than normal in the Eastern US. January finished near normal in the Mid-west and Northeast after a very cold first half, so this was slightly cooler than my forecast. My first window for a large storm in the Northeast verified (late Dec/beginning of Jan). The NAO has been positive this winter as I expected, with a near neutral/slightly negative AO. Unless, you've been reading different forecast ideas, I think things have gone fairly well to date. We'll see where we are 1.5 months from now. But your assertion is not correct.

The lack of objectivity that I've seen on various boards this winter has reached an all-time high.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:43 AM, Isotherm said:

 

How? December verified - colder/snowier than normal in the Eastern US. January finished near normal in the Mid-west and Northeast after a very cold first half, so this was slightly cooler than my forecast. My first window for a large storm in the Northeast verified (late Dec/beginning of Jan). The NAO has been positive this winter as I expected, with a near neutral/slightly negative AO. Unless, you've been reading different forecast ideas, I think things have gone fairly well to date. We'll see where we are 1.5 months from now. But your assertion is not correct.

The lack of objectivity that I've seen on various boards this winter has reached an all-time high.

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Yea, I would say this winter has been a bit colder than I had expected, but its gone about as according to plan as one could possibly hope.

This season was an easy call imo.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

His medium range calls have, but his seasonal outlook has been very good.

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Thank you Ray, though I don't see how I've been wrong on the MR forecasts either. Jan 12-31 torched, and early Feb looks unfavorable still for the coast (for widespread significant), especially NYC southward.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:53 AM, Isotherm said:

Thank you Ray, though I don't see how I've been wrong on the MR forecasts either. Jan 12-31 torched, and early Feb looks unfavorable still for the coast (for widespread significant), especially NYC southward.

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You are fast...lol

I amended that.

I heard some say you were calling for a meager event in the medium range leading up to the blizzard...not sure how true that is TBH.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I would say this winter has been a bit colder than I had expected, but its gone about as according to plan as one could possibly hope.

This season was an easy call imo.

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I think this season was tougher than the past couple of winters with more conflicting data, but I agree that there was a strong signal for early winter cold/snow burst this year for sure. As I said in the NYC thread, will be monitoring wave-2 for later in Feb. Nothing may happen - I'm not really impressed right now, but it could have implications for end of feb into mar.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:56 AM, Isotherm said:

I think this season was tougher than the past couple of winters with more conflicting data, but I agree that there was a strong signal for early winter cold/snow burst this year for sure. As I said in the NYC thread, will be monitoring wave-2 for later in Feb. Nothing may happen - I'm not really impressed right now, but it could have implications for end of feb into mar.

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I started in 2014-'15 with the seasonal outlooks, and this was the easiest imo....my best showing...SO FAR

My worst was the super el nino....I nailed the MA blizzard, but completely chocked in NNE and through the interior. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are fast...lol

I amended that.

I heard some say you were calling for a meager event in the medium range leading up to the blizzard...not sure how true that is TBH.

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No problem. My call for that was significant+ east of NYC and light-moderate totals NJ/NYC, so I busted in the NYC/Western LI and NJ shore region. Didn't realize the game of telephone applied to someone's forecasts too. :lol:

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 12:52 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s around 15 miles by car..maybe 25 minutes from my house to the center.  I can get there by driving past Stone Cow brewery, which is a bonus!    Almost no snow on the ground here.  Patchy, maybe half inch.   We need some

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Oh' yeah,  got it, you are S or Rt 2 and E of Petersham/New Salem, super nice area.  I am embarrassed to admit I have not been to Stone Cow. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:58 AM, Isotherm said:

No problem. My call for that was significant+ east of NYC and light-moderate totals NJ/NYC, so I busted in the NYC/Western LI and NJ shore region. Didn't realize the game of telephone applied to someone's forecasts too. :lol:

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You are the most highly touted seasonal guy in my book, so no worries.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
  On 2/1/2018 at 2:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tom, I am with you though...never been a fan of early Feb.

I think the window is later in February into early March.

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I like the EPS look too circa the 10th/11th, as the ridge axis shifts ewd in accordance with improvements in tropical forcing. Hopefully we can pull off a PNA induced storm threat in that window.

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