February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[SnowHole413]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... when on goodness sands over the isles of angels was THAT ever the case  -

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Well some people have said the GFS is to amped today with the Monday storm.

Im not saying just specially the GFS but some people like the use the, “it’s to amped excuse” regardless of what model it is. Most of the time a modeled system ends up being too amped, but sometimes it’s not.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:15 PM, Powderboy413 said:

Well some people have said GFS is to amped today with the Monday storm

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gotcha... heh.   

was thinking you meant on-going bias of something.   yeah, I agree ...there's ample support from multiple guidance sourcing/ensembles.   

hey guys, if the flow wasn't so compressed I'd say the 96 hour Euro was setting stage for something special ... but with that flow so fast and smashed the lead s/w ridging doesn't room to blossom and that might keep that whole look moving right along

[dryslot]

The 12z Euro is more of a weak open wave that tracks further east with some lighter snow on monday for some of the area.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is pretty mild too for SNE. Maybe NW areas or nrn orh are more on the snowy side,  but pretty mild through 925. Does seem to end briefly as snow?

[MJO812]

Euro further east and colder 

Fast flow will hurt this storm ?

[MJO812]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro is pretty mild too for SNE. Maybe NW areas or nrn orh are more on the snowy side,  but pretty mild through 925. Does seem to end briefly as snow?

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It's cooler compared to 0z but looks similiar to the ukie.

[dryslot]

That was pretty toasty at 925 pretty far west on this run into the interior.

[dryslot]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:24 PM, Snow88 said:

It's cooler compared to 0z but looks similiar to the ukie.

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It looked like crap actually.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:24 PM, Snow88 said:

It's cooler compared to 0z but looks similiar to the ukie.

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That’s my gripe with this. There isn’t a whole lot of room. It’s eiher too amped or shunted out to sea. At least on the euro, it’s not the best wintry pattern. Maybe it improves after next week and still some

time for Monday. 

[mreaves]

  On 1/31/2018 at 5:56 PM, dryslot said:

If they lose i hope you whiff.

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Its a tough decision, do I love riding more than I hate the Pats?

[Whineminster]

So much for the pattern changing, the flow is still too fast which is what we've been dealing with all season. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:43 PM, Whineminster said:

So much for the pattern changing, the flow is still too fast which is what we've been dealing with all season. 

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oyyyye

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:43 PM, Whineminster said:

So much for the pattern changing, the flow is still too fast which is what we've been dealing with all season. 

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Enjoy your blue bomb monday.

[dryslot]

, The ole whinemaster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2018 at 5:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

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True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

[512high]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

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is there a chance though? or is this pattern moving way to fast?

[dryslot]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

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Its walking a fine line because it will also bring the warmth with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:56 PM, 512high said:

is there a chance though? or is this pattern moving way to fast?

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Yea, there is a chance...Steve is right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:57 PM, dryslot said:

Its walking a fine line because it will also bring the warmth with it.

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I'll take that chance where I am.

[OSUmetstud]

Perhaps we'll set some cold front passage record in St. John's for February. 

[jbenedet]

  On 1/31/2018 at 6:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

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Despite a weak system, I'm thinking this is a situation where we get a decent warm conveyor to tap the Gulf, and moisture feed is pumped right into our backyard. Easier to conceptualize if look at it more as a frontal wave, rather than a developing mid latitude cyclone....

[Ginx snewx]

boy that Euro run is as marginal as it gets temp wise , we blue bomb

[MJO812]

  On 1/31/2018 at 7:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

boy that Euro run is as marginal as it gets temp wise , we blue bomb

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Eps also is cooler than 0z

[MJO812]

Eps members have the low going to the west or just over the benchmark

[40/70 Benchmark]

I said that I think that 12z run of the GFS is too amped, not that the model has a tendency to be too amped in general.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/31/2018 at 7:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

boy that Euro run is as marginal as it gets temp wise , we blue bomb

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oh damn the weather.us site and Maues site are way different its  torchy on weather.us, I mean like 6 degrees warmer. Maues site has 33 34 degree surface and 0/1 850, weather.us has +7 925 42 degrees surface. IDK why

[codfishsnowman]

  On 1/31/2018 at 5:48 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Oh' don't worry, I will be a miserable poster if I don't have a new base of snow soon.   We are close to seeing the 10 or so posters that live from Runnaway to Snowgeek to me start snapping.

 I won't include MPM or Codfish  because they have probably already snapped.

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I snapped years ago...I just enjoy washing down the milltown and xanax with a strong bit of Kettle One when things are bleak these days

[CoastalWx]

 I thought it was mild. Especially 925 and 850. It doesn’t matter if the low passes southeast of the Cape when it’s a complete furnace aloft. Maybe it means more ice or mixed precip in the interior. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/31/2018 at 7:57 PM, Ginx snewx said:

oh damn the weather.us site and Maues site are way different its  torchy on weather.us, I mean like 6 degrees warmer. Maues site has 33 34 degree surface and 0/1 850, weather.us has +7 925 42 degrees surface. IDK why

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ah 3 hr increments, oh that does suck lol. EPS looks like the Op congrats MPMers

[Baroclinic Zone]

Good track for inland, at a minimum.