michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I have never seen anything like it. Yesterday nobody in Southern Michigan had anything more than a 30 to 40% chance of snow showers forecast today. Snow chances upped to likely with forecasts of up to an inch when last evenings grids came out. And now when East Lansing residents woke up to 8" of unexpected snow and the storm is strengthened, DTX issued a Winter weather advisory and now upgraded to a warning for Detroit's northern suburbs for 6 to 10". Calling for 3 to 5" here. It's a Winter wonderland outside. Way beyond my expectations but to think 10 inch amounts are possible north of Detroit from a little system that just developed out of nowhere. This is like 1950 era stuff where forecasters had zero clue and were surprised in nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This is pretty wild, we have between 3"-4" already on the ground here at my house in northern St Clair county. We had a heavy band go through a little bit ago with less then 1/2 mile vis. Now it's snowing lighter but still under 1 mile vis. Wonder how long before the schools are let out early....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 DTX just pulled the trigger on a Warning for Oakland Macomb and St Claire Counties. 6-10 inches. HRRR nails the eastern flank of the region. From Port Huron down through just about Detroit. Detroit River corridor. #DetroitSnowMagnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Pretty impressive little upper level wave. I've seen little surprise +SN events with these in the past but usually there's a closed circulation or at least a more amplified open wave compared to this. 2-4" looks good here. Looks like we'll just miss out on the heavier amounts to the south but it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Between a quick hit of snow from the deformation and low to mid-level frontogenesis late this afternoon and evening and some lake enhancement tonight into early Tuesday, looks like parts of NE OH will see several inches by tomorrow morning as well. This has been hinted at for a day or two here, definitely not the surprise parts of Michigan saw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Take that...model huggers!Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 It's snowing surprisingly hard here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 You guys just had your version of our post Xmas ‘09 event from around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The upgrade worked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You guys just had your version of our post Xmas ‘09 event from around here. . Yeah it does seem similar for sure. I haven't got out yet, so I don't know what we have here but eyeballing out the window it is a couple of inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Second surprise of the season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I seen a pic on Facebook that around Perry is up to 11" already still snowing, nice surprise for you guys down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 A couple of thoughts...first thought is the 850mb fgen band that pounded MI this morning looks to move E and skirt the northern shore of Lake Erie and slide perhaps towards BUF and likely just south of the GTA this evening. This will bring a few hours of intense lift (with that occurring in the DGZ) through a deep layer to go along with steep lapse rates from about 800mb to 400mb. There appears to be enough lift and over a deep enough layer for charge separation and possibly some lightning this afternoon and evening, though I'm not sure if it'll directly impact any posters here. I'd expect that band to continue to drop warning criteria snow amounts in excess of 6", though that'll likely be south of Toronto. The NAM hinted at that band of great lift just north of the 850mb low yesterday...but it had the low over northern OH and had the band over Lake Erie and grazing north-central OH, but it ended up a good bit farther north this morning. A few of the 0z hi-res models did pin-point a corridor of 0.2-0.4" of QPF this morning near Lansing...likely a bit more liquid fell, but with some ratio magic that does suggest several inches. It was a sneaky potential that come down to nowcasting...hard to pin down in advance. For northern OH, there's a brief period (less than 3 hours) of lift through a deep layer (with steep lapse rates to boot) including the DGZ that quickly moves west to east late afternoon/early evening along the mid-level cold front that could produce a nice burst of snow...with some weak deformation between about 400mb and 700mb keeping light snow going well through the evening. Thinking a general 2-3" of synoptic snow in the northern couple tiers of counties in north-central and NE OH. Lake enhanced conditions improve this evening and could keep moderate snow going until after midnight in the higher terrain immediately downwind of Lake Erie from the Cleveland metro points east...with some generally light lake effect lingering into Tuesday (perhaps briefly heavier under a Huron connected band). Think the lake enhanced/effect snow will push storm totals to 3-6" in the Cleveland area and snowbelt south and east of Cleveland, heaviest in the higher terrain. I could see someone in the higher terrain in NE OH or NW PA squeaking out 8", but for a time this evening after the initial burst of snow along the mid-level fgen the unstable layer with the lake enhancement is below the DGZ, so ratios may be poor for a while before it gets colder later at night and ratios improve again. Either way, nice little surprise event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 A couple things 1) obviously these last minute massive surprises don't come around as often nowadays, but there was actually one earlier this month in/around southeast Missouri with something that didn't look like much and ended up way overperforming. Didn't get as much attention because of the lack of posters from there 2) I am so not surprised that Michigan is the beneficiary of this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 -SN just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just measured 3" at home and called it in. Probably will end up in the 4-5 range before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Around 3" or a tad more so far. It's on the wet side when shoveling but it's a bit drifty. Should grind for several more hours. Thinking 3.5-4.0 total here. It would have been awesome to be in those narrow intense bands but considering the nature of this surprise I'm quite pleased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Around 3" or a tad more so far. It's on the wet side when shoveling but it's a bit drifty. Should grind for several more hours. Thinking 3.5-4.0 total here. It would have been awesome to be in those narrow intense bands but considering the nature of this surprise I'm quite pleased! THIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2nd rabbit pulled out of my snow hat this month! The 3-4" hit on the morning of the 12th after we looked to get whiffed was the other..living on the edge of Paradise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I was pretty surprised to get almost 2" of high ratio fluff out of this one. Even way up here on the northern fringe of this "storm", I was just expecting a dusting to maybe 1/2 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Coming down quite steadily here in downtown Toronto. The commute is going to be terrible. Looking good for 2-4" across the area with higher amounts in Mississauga and further south based on the latest surface analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 A little surprised DTX dropped all the headlines while accumulating snow was still ongoing...and then promptly issued a SPS for up to 2" of additional accumulation. Just extend the headlines for a few more hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, OHweather said: A little surprised DTX dropped all the headlines while accumulating snow was still ongoing...and then promptly issued a SPS for up to 2" of additional accumulation. Just extend the headlines for a few more hours? Higher sun angle and lighter precip rates cleared the roads up really quickly here, locally. That's my guess anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Higher sun angle and lighter precip rates cleared the roads up really quickly here, locally. That's my guess anyways. That makes sense I guess. Just thought it odd they let the advisories and warnings expire but still thought it necessary to issue a SPS right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Coming down quite steadily here in downtown Toronto. The commute is going to be terrible. Looking good for 2-4" across the area with higher amounts in Mississauga and further south based on the latest surface analysis. So far haven't been too impressed with rates or ratios. Haven't been out in it yet. Maybe it's just the view through the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Nah. Definitely not getting the frontogenetic bands like were happening back in MI. Doesn't affect us in Toronto as the 2-4 call still looks fine. But I doubt the warning area to the south is verifying. Hamilton/Niagara may pull it out overnight if LES develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1.5" here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Sounds like a lot of the Detroit area got 3-4" with pockets of 5-8" in some northern burbs and isolated amounts near 10" in Flint. As temps dropped the NW wind blew and drifted the snow around a lot, and its a winter wonderland outside as temps fall through the teens. Suddenly its deep winter again. Storm total here was 3.8", now at 33.0" on the season. DTW's 3.4" puts them at 31.7" on the season. FNT was right in that band and picked up a shocking 9.7", so they are at 43.6" on the season, only about 4 inches shy of average for an entire season yet we are just past the halfway mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Nah. Definitely not getting the frontogenetic bands like were happening back in MI. Doesn't affect us in Toronto as the 2-4 call still looks fine. But I doubt the warning area to the south is verifying. Hamilton/Niagara may pull it out overnight if LES develops. Snow band's slowly weakening across the GTA from north to south. Looks like a general 2-3" fell across the area. Nothing impressive versus SE Michigan, but enough for a nice winter wonderland. We may need to monitor the Wednesday event for a general 1-3" across the area though I would assume because of down-slopping, we may not see anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 hours ago, RogueWaves said: THIS! This is the SAME old song and dance of the past decade. This map shows perfectly how the setup has been over and over and over. Muskegon...the synoptic snow abyss. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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