Syrmax Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Virga already overhead, will take a while to moisten up lower column for actual snow to fall... Except for KBOX CWA where Blizzard Warnings should be issued soon for SNE, esp Mt. Tolland and environs, which has a deeper snowpack than the Tug. Virtually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Definitely dry with dp's in the mid teens with temps up near 30F. Suffice to say its gonna take till the morning to moisten up the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 00Z Euro. Nice look. Right up the Apps where the dumb fux say it can't go, but often does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 00z EURO looks good except for the So. Tier may taint but not for long it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Euro looks like a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 NWS Buf all over this with talk of watches and 100% on point and click despite 4 days away. Crazy. During the day Wednesday...the consolidating storm system is forecast to track to our southeast...roughly from West Virginia to southeast New York state. The various guidance packages differ somewhat on this track...but this is the MEAN of the ensembles. It is worth noting though that this is not a climatological favorable track. Typically...storms will either track across western New York...or will track/redevelop to the east of the Appalachians. Using the mean track for this forecast package...a strengthening H925-70 baroclinic zone should be found over our forecast area on Wednesday. This will favor significant frontogentic forcing in the low levels...although the deepest moisture and strongest jet induced lift is likely to be to our southeast. Even so...fairly impressive snowfall amounts look reasonable over our region. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour would support warning criteria snowfall... but the confidence is not quite there for a watch. There is also the complication of warmer air working far enough north to change some of the snow to rain or sleet over parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes during the afternoon. Will refrain from adding mixed pcpn into the package at this point...but it is something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Drier for some but noise at this point, nice track!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Pretty cold too, maybe we can get some decent ratios, worry bout that as we move closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6z Gfs west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 What a nice surprise to wake up to. 34 degrees with a nice rain coming down and whatever little snowpack I had almost gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 we are in the sweet zone where if the system moves 50-75 miles West we're still good and vice versa, lol! Finally feels good but things can still go awry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Yeah not a nice surprise but were at 35 already with heavy precip overhead, but with verga at this pt. I think we too see rain at some of today, so we'll be in the same boat soon, lol! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The snow has picked up in intensity here in the last 15 minutes. My temperature was at 34 but since the snow has increased it dropped to 32 with a dew point of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Deck is now covered with pretty good flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Same here, moderate snow with a fresh coating, also down to 32.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Coming down fairly good here in Hannibal also, temp is 34 with a light coating on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Forecast low for Fulton was 25, kfzy got down to 31..I don’t think we rise to much today though, forecast high is 34, down from yesterday’s 37..Dp’s still in the lower 20s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Temp is down to 32 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Snowing moderately here, approaching an inch. It’s a very wet snow, ratios are going to be low. I’m at 31 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Some LR NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Up to 37 degrees with light to at times moderate rain, what a bust here even for the minor 2-4” all local news outlets were calling for last night. However I am working in Bemus Point today and driving through Cassadaga was mind blowing the amount of snow on the ground there with at least a couple feet on the ground and what looked to be a fresh 3-4” otg with plows about in every parking lot. Much less in Bemus Point itself with maybe a fresh inch and about 6” or so otg. Nice to see some real snowpack when all I have at home is green grass and a couple of muddy crusty piles here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Off and on pixy dust thus far, maybe half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Up to 37 degrees with light to at times moderate rain, what a bust here even for the minor 2-4” all local news outlets were calling for last night. However I am working in Bemus Point today and driving through Cassadaga was mind blowing the amount of snow on the ground there with at least a couple feet on the ground and what looked to be a fresh 3-4” otg with plows about in every parking lot. Much less in Bemus Point itself with maybe a fresh inch and about 6” or so otg. Nice to see some real snowpack when all I have at home is green grass and a couple of muddy crusty piles here and there... Cassadaga does not have a few feet on the ground. Perrysburg has 7-8" at most. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Decent amount of snow on the ground in the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cassadaga does not have a few feet on the ground. Perrysburg has 7-8" at most. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=buf https://image.ibb.co/f1OYDx/B03_BB200_3_CF2_48_BA_B86_E_FE294098_AFAE.jpg https://image.ibb.co/nN7RYx/6578_DA12_5185_4_FE1_AD91_FFAA37274_D42.jpg 7-8”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Tug and Upper Peninsula of Michigan all over 200" already. Some places in WNY closing in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Its trying to snow here, variable and generally not impressive intensity despite radar look. Flake size ok though. I have 33 degrees here Speaking of radar, can definately see the snow hole models predicted from finger lakes on west. Pretty good job with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: https://image.ibb.co/f1OYDx/B03_BB200_3_CF2_48_BA_B86_E_FE294098_AFAE.jpg https://image.ibb.co/nN7RYx/6578_DA12_5185_4_FE1_AD91_FFAA37274_D42.jpg 7-8”? The first is a snow pile, the second looks about a foot. Not 3 feet lol. The tug barely has that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The first is a snow pile, the second looks about a foot. Not 3 feet lol. The tug barely has that. Lol well there was as much snow on the ground as the time you and I went snow chasing there after Springville lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 Euro looks good so far. Looks a little stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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