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Upstate/Eastern New York


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33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wednesday is quickly becoming a non event, looks like an inch or two on the Gfs/ggem as it currently stands..

GFS looks like 2-5" from SYR to BUF...BGM to ALB and esp down into CPA look like jackpot on 12z GFS w/ no ptype problems. A few days left to go with this one but with a raging +NAO i can buy a less amp'd outcome playing out. 

Edit: some 12z GFS LE model outputs for Sun/Wed....

KSYR 0.29 / 0.39" 

KBGM 0.27 / 0.68"

KALB 0.46 / 0.78"

KBUF 0.27 / 0.21"

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I just took a drive pretty much in a big circle in and around Central New York and the area stretching from pennellville East North East towards Central Square Brewerton then on North East from there is a definite snow hole for the season, while places 4 miles to our West 3 miles to hour south and perhaps 10 miles to hour north and you run into much heavier totals and snow on the ground. I guess that's just how some seasons are versus others, you win some you lose some!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Don’t think we’re even gonna get a WWA from the NWS for tomorrow’s snow. Looking like we’ll get 2-4” if we’re lucky and Wednesday’s system looks to bring even less than that now for WNY. Back to cold and dry..

Wed looks decent for CNY and ENY.  Euro still looks like a reasonable hit for CNY and maybe WNY if it ends up further west.  +NAO and no upstream blocking should keep this from going too far S&E.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Wed looks decent for CNY and ENY.  Euro still looks like a reasonable hit for CNY and maybe WNY if it ends up further west.  +NAO and no upstream blocking should keep this from going too far S&E.

I can’t see this thing coming back far enough west to give anything of significance to BUF, ROC maybe but not this far west. We’ll be lucky to pick up a couple inches from that system. Good luck to BGM, SYR and especially ALB, feel like they’ve gotten screwed this season so hope they get hammered. 

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3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

I can’t see this thing coming back far enough west to give anything of significance to BUF, ROC maybe but not this far west. We’ll be lucky to pick up a couple inches from that system. Good luck to BGM, SYR and especially ALB, feel like they’ve gotten screwed this season so hope they get hammered. 

Agree about KALY...when KACY has as much as Albany for the season thusfar, it's bad. And KALY has 6" more snow this year (24") compared to last year (18"), at this point...

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There can be a pretty decent flare up of LE come Monday mid-morning through Tuesday but eventually it ends up on the TUG, obviously, but it does start out on a WNW then transitions over to a straight Westerly flow across the length of the Lake, with ample moisture, great lapse rates with 850's down close to -22C, so the Tug may actually be completely buried the next week.  They were spared today as the band was on the move quickly but that won't be the case this next round, then the next synoptic event enters the picture, so the Tug can get easily close to 3-5' the next week, if all comes to fruition, while places to its SW like me will se less than a foot for the week, lol!

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The GFS looks decent with the midweek event as well. There is a minima in the KROC and the FNGLKS areas obviously due to dslping which sucks but it is what it is unfortunately.  At least ENY will get in on the fun, finally, as KALB has been in a snow drought for the past 5 seasons or more and that's just wickedly cruel!

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12Z UKMET similar to GFS with track and intensity. It looks like most guidance is within 50-100 miles of one another and that's a relief as we now just have to wait and see if any trends start as we know it will trend one way or the other and I say it heads further NW as there is nothing preventing it from doing so.  If we has some semblance of a -NAO some of these systems would no doubt be cutters, actually most of them would of been cutters so I'd be grateful we haven't had a terribly -NAO, lol.

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The 00Z Canadian looks good as well.  I'm not concerned with precip output as I am more concerned with the 850LP and the 700LP as they need to be ideal for us to get some appreciable snowfall.

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We all know what the GFS and Euro show thats why I showed the UK and the GGEM.  I think we're in great shape as it stands its a good bet we see a plowable snowfall area wide.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Globals took a step NW. Lots of time.

There is no blocking. Wed will come west a bit now that models have trended a bit east the past few runs. I think the Euro track will be close to verifying. Might mean a mix into NY Southern Tier though.  It is the way of things. 

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