BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 UKIE looks like good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Similar to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM EURO UKMET ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Lets hope the 00Z EURO holds serve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Another massive hit from the Euro, goes a little north then last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 15-20" of 1:10 would bring down quite a few trees with any type of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 That “trowel “ feature is key to some bonus snow, euro keeps adjusting that feature.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 You can see it here, where that sets up could be foot and a half of wet snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GEFS just like the Gfs doesn’t like this event but has plenty of snow chances in the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Christ. 6z NAM does it again. Unfreaking believable!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Wsw issued, 5”-10” First call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Close up wb style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Man. I hope you guys are ready out there in Western NY. This one has the potential to really bring the hammer. Someone will be getting hit pretty hard by wherever the TROWEL sets up. I think the Euro and NAM might be pinning down the placement of that feature in latest runs. Starting to think Upstate NY, somewhere, will see 20+" of heavy wet snow. That'll be fun, unless the power goes out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The lockdown on this event really appears to be KBUF north to lake Ontario east to the fingerlakes...i don't know I trust some of the amounts I've looked at but even if 10 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow falls that could be enough to bring down tree limbs and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 For once this winter I really like where I am in northern Otsego county. Looks like a fun one coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Kbuf The complexity of the weather system grows Thursday night, as the northern stream and southern stream waves phase and start to dive southeastward, while a close, negatively tilted low at 500 mb develops over PA. The complexity of this interaction has lead to some disagreement on the evolution of the surface low among the global and regional models. The track of this surface low will be largely important to how quickly colder air can be drawn southward across the forecast area causing a transition from rain to snow. The operational GFS remains right near the farthest north with its track, stalling it almost over eastern Lake Erie or Buffalo. This farther north track would severely limit snowfall amounts across the forecast area, however this solution is also an outlier among its own ensembles as well as the EC, NAM and Canadian models, as well as the EC ensembles. The model consensus has certainly trended slightly southward and slightly cooler over the last day or two, and given the very marginal temperature profiles near the freezing mark, this is enough to raise concerns about the possibility of a significant snow event. The colder air will lead to a transition from rain to snow Thursday night into early Friday morning, with confidence increasing in widespread accumulations. Precipitation efficiency will certainly be high late Thursday night through Friday morning given an enhanced deformation and trowal forcing wrapping back across western NY along with a fetch of deep Atlantic moisture along the cold conveyor belt of the storm. Exactly how this efficient precipitation process translates to snowfall totals is a bit more complicated. The boundary layer will be slow to cool, limiting accumulation efficiency, but will be counteracted by the impressive dynamical cooling overspreading the region underneath the upper level system. A cooling northerly flow on the back side of the system will also allow for some enhanced amounts from upslope. Forecast models are also trending toward the snowfall linger longer through the day on Friday, as the transfer of energy to the coast is now forecast to result in a surface low making a cyclonic loop near or just off shore from Long Island. By holding the secondary surface low closer to the coast, there is more potential for continued wrap around snowfall through the day Friday before tapering off Friday night as the low finally drifts farther offshore. This would also prolong the enhancement south of Lake Ontario from frictional convergence and orographic ascent in the northern Finger Lakes. However, lingering snowfall accumulations into the day Friday will also struggle against marginal surface temperatures (daytime highs +/- 32 degrees) especially for lower elevations, and the higher sun angle even through the cloud cover now that were getting into March. Lows Friday night will be back into the mid 20s to near the 30 degree mark. With regard to forecast snowfall amounts, there remains lower than average confidence. A general 5 to 10 inches in the watch area is currently forecast, with the highest amounts over the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario. However it is extremely important to note that the details in forecast snowfall will change as this storm system approaches. Any changes which would allow for colder air than currently forecast would result in higher snowfall totals, while any changes with slightly warmer air could cut back on snowfall totals. It is also quite possible that snow accumulations could vary widely by elevation even for locations in otherwise close proximity, with hilltops more likely to receive the higher amounts. In other words, be aware of the wide range in possible outcomes, and monitor this forecast closely as the storm system nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12Z NAM has a 978 mb low just southeast of Montauk at hour 54. CNY is in the deformation band with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: 15-20" of 1:10 would bring down quite a few trees with any type of wind. Unlikely as they are bare but the weight can bring down tons of branches, creating quite the mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Yea hits up most of the state pretty good..Hard to trust this model though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea hits up most of the state pretty good..Hard to trust this model though lol Hard to trust at 66 hours out...not exactly the NAM's wheelhouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Hard to trust at 66 hours out...not exactly the NAM's wheelhouse... Actually the bulk of the storm is in the 48-60 hour range. Isn’t 48 getting into the wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Boy 3k nam wraps a lot of warm air in this one, especially at 850mb..0 inches in parts of northern Oswego county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This is while Surface temps are near 30..Actually gets even warmer in the latter half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Actually the bulk of the storm is in the 48-60 hour range. Isn’t 48 getting into the wheelhouse? Its definitely within its range of accuracy but its snowfall output is just laughable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Took this from that other sub forum. Onondaga County is in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Actually the bulk of the storm is in the 48-60 hour range. Isn’t 48 getting into the wheelhouse? Question. Does the GFS even have a wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 nice write up from KBGM. The general idea will be for an Ohio Valley low to lose definition Thursday evening, while transferring energy to a coastal low late Thursday night through Friday, which itself will get forced ascent via left exit region of upper jet. Ohio Valley low will become an inverted trough, with 700mb low tracking along the Interstate 80 corridor. The trend has been for a slower moving mid/upper level low which captures the deepening surface low just off the NJ/NY coast during the day on Friday. The surface low will rapidly deepen down to around 980mb by 18z Friday and will likely do a small counter-clockwise loop near Long Island. Meanwhile, a closed 850/700mb low will spin somewhere near NYC (NAM) or south of Long island (ECMWF). Either way, plenty of Atlantic moisture will wrap around the system and into our area. The moisture feed will be enhanced by an 80kt easterly jet at 850mb over New England. Once this cyclone matures (becomes vertically stacked) by around midday Friday indications are that a strong deformation band of potentially heavy snow will setup over much of the forecast area...and persist for at least several hours well into Friday afternoon or evening. Exactly where this band of heavy snow sets up is still uncertain however climatology would favor a scenario close to the ECMWF solution, with the heaviest snow along the I-81 corridor and east. A strong band of frontogenesis in the 850-700mb is evident on the latest GFS starting around 12z Friday and persisting through much of the day. Surface temperatures will be marginal for heavy snow, especially in the lower elevations where temps will likely be between 30-35 degrees...in the higher terrain snow will accumulate more efficiently with slightly higher snow ratios (closer to 10 or 12:1) as temps will be between about 28-33 degrees here. If models hold steady on the track and strength of this system it certainly has the potential be bring a significant snowfall to much of the area. Climatology would favor a very snowy scenario with a strong, closed off mid-level low sitting and spinning near NYC this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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