CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 That midweek system is a long duration event as it appears to have -sn flying by Tues afternoon lasting into Thursday with perhaps some LE-LES to follow. It also looks like with each successive run of the GFS, it gets a bit more juicier. What a pattern if we can at least cash in on a few decent systems. There also appears to be a rapid lake response right behind the front. All three lakes are firing on all cylinders and the same should occur over both lakes Erie and Ontario, as it looks like a large part of Erie is still wide open so we'll see. KBUF may even throw up an advisory with this afternoons package but I'm not expecting it. Lake parameters look impressive to me for at least 6-10 hrs with a lined up WNW flow. Finally back to Winter and tracking events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 39 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: NYC and surrounding areas are calling for straight RN next Wednesday. That bodes well for us I would think as their thinking this system heads close enough to the coast for both metro's to receive RN including KBOX! Obviously things can change and probably will, but I'm cautiously optimistic at this time. I also like our chances for a couple to several inches tonight into tomorrow from straight LES but moisture is lacking so it won't be, what it would be, if ample moisture was available. I'm good with 2-4" before Sunday - Mondays event. This is the pattern we've been looking for so lets hope it lasts for at least a couple weeks. This upcoming week reminds me of late Dec or early Jan (?) when we had 4 systems/events lined up in close proximity. None were blockbusters but i think the final one was a decent hit, 6-12" in CNY. This could end up similarly for us. And yeah, looks right now like coastal areas will see more rain then frozen for Sun/Mon and Tues/Wed systems and nothing but flurries Friday into Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This pattern is fantastic and should produce for our area. The whole lower GL's area should do well with this pattern thats setting up. If there was a decent enough -NAO it would be perhaps Historic! I think tonight and a part of tomorrow is being overlooked but we'll see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This upcoming week reminds me of late Dec or early Jan (?) when we had 4 systems/events lined up in close proximity. None were blockbusters but i think the final one was a decent hit, 6-12" in CNY. This could up similarly for us. And yeah, looks right now like coastal areas will see more rain then frozen for Sun/Mon and Tues/Wed systems and nothing but flurries Friday into Sat. Yes I vaguely remember and I believe I ended up with 16-20 for a tally but I could be wrong. You probably have it all archived, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yes I vaguely remember and I believe I ended up with 16-20 for a tally but I could be wrong. You probably have it all archived, lol! I think you are right...that squares with my recollection. And agree we could get a bonus 5-8" by sat a.m. which is only Round #1. Maybe no biggie sized storm on tap but this is the sort of constant feed of snow events that makes this area great for snow lovers as compared to areas S & E along the coast who generally don't get parades of snow like this over a week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Edit: snipped from today's WPC Long range discussion. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH 24-HOUR AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 05/0000Z. ANOTHER MAXIMA SETS UP OVER UPPER NEW ENGLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO WIND UP AND THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES EXCEED 4 SIGMA BY 05/1200Z. A SNOWFALL THREAT WILL EXIST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A GENERAL FOCUS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS QUIET BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL BREAKS OUT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 24-HOUR AMOUNTS REACHING THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM WHILE ANOTHER SNOWFALL THREAT EXISTS OVER SIMILAR LOCATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM. THE PAIR OF SYSTEMS COULD LEAVE A DECENT SNOWPACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE BUT A LOT OF DETAILS CAN CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. ELSEWHERE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 1.6-2" of QPF on Euro. Verbatim 2'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 WPC is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Update this afternoon from WPC (I like the purple into CNY I-81 corridor vs previous which looked more like just the Tug area): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This is gonna be a good 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This is gonna be a good 2 weeks! Yeah, pretty sure those precip totals don't include or represent much of the lower density LES we will get in that span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, pretty sure those precip totals don't include or represent much of the lower density LES we will get in that span. Yeah, it never does which in this case will be tonight into tomorrow and Monday evening and then after the midweek event. We have so much to track in the short-med range that the long range is not even a thought, lol, and that feels great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah, it never does which in this case will be tonight into tomorrow and Monday evening and then after the midweek event. We have so much to track in the short-med range that the long range is not even a thought, lol, and that feels great! Long range is torch, so good thing. Long range models have been beyond brutal so I honestly wouldn't even look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah, it never does which in this case will be tonight into tomorrow and Monday evening and then after the midweek event. We have so much to track in the short-med range that the long range is not even a thought, lol, and that feels great! Have to think that if next Tues/Wed pans out for us, we should easily be pushing 2 feet of new snow for most of this forum by next Friday morning. I feel better about this period than the clown map fiasco back in late December, where outrageous totals (75" in Syr) over a 10 day period were being shown on EC/GFS. Heck, if we pick up what KBUF's map shows between now and this Sat a.m. we'll be 1/3rd - 1/2 way to 2 feet. But as always, I'll ride with KBGM's map idea (6-8") IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 If there is a long range model out there showing anything but cold, then there seems to be a large discrepancy amongst LR ideas then but that's OK. Like I said though, I rarely look at anything past 7 days anymore, cause it never pans out anyway, so why even par take in trying to predict it. Heck, more often than not, we find ourselves within 3 days of an event only to find most globals disagreeing with each other. I canceled my Weatherbell Sub so I cant even see the Euro anymore the way I used to. Is it eat least on board cause I heard the GGEM is definitely not but the UKMET is so whats the real story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Have to think that if next Tues/Wed pans out for us, we should easily be pushing 2 feet of new snow for most of this forum by next Friday morning. I feel better about this period than the clown map fiasco back in late December, where outrageous totals (75" in Syr) over a 10 day period were being shown on EC/GFS. Heck, if we pick up what KBUF's map shows between now and this Sat a.m. we'll be 1/3rd - 1/2 way to 2 feet. But as always, I'll ride with KBGM's map idea (6-8") IMBY. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 222 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 NYZ009-018-036-037-021930- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0007.180202T0300Z-180203T1200Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, and Utica 222 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are anticipated by late Friday night. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison, and Southern Oneida Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. Bands of lake effect snow will first move in later this evening, between 8 and 10 pm. The steadiest snow is likely to occur Friday morning, so be prepared for slow going during the morning commute to work and school. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times and slippery conditions on untreated surfaces, as temperatures quickly drop below freezing this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Is there any model showing this for next Wed?? EDIT: Yeah...the 12Z Euro, just checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Is there any model showing this for next Wed?? Thought the 12z GFS was showing something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Is there any model showing this for next Wed?? It looks really far West but the Frontogenetic forcing would be insane right over CNY, WOW!! Thats a bit to close for comfort though, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I'm pretty certain it moves ENE from there so I'm really not concerned about precip type right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If there is a long range model out there showing anything but cold, then there seems to be a large discrepancy amongst LR ideas then but that's OK. Like I said though, I rarely look at anything past 7 days anymore, cause it never pans out anyway, so why even par take in trying to predict it. Heck, more often than not, we find ourselves within 3 days of an event only to find most globals disagreeing with each other. I canceled my Weatherbell Sub so I cant even see the Euro anymore the way I used to. Is it eat least on board cause I heard the GGEM is definitely not but the UKMET is so whats the real story? Big signal on EPS of warmth after Feb 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Is there any model showing this for next Wed?? EDIT: Yeah...the 12Z Euro, just checked. 12Z Euro would have some mixing as it stands right now. It brings the 0C 850 isotherm north of CNY for a while Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Point and Click for next tues-Wed-wed night! Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%. I'll take those percentages from 5 days out any day, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Big signal on EPS of warmth after Feb 16th. Not concerned in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range is torch, so good thing. Long range models have been beyond brutal so I honestly wouldn't even look at them. Long range - out to 240 hours looks like the PV on our side of the pole per the EC. That's not torchy. Beyond that...agree w/ Freak...its all high uncertainty and low skill outputs. Check out Ryan Maue's tweet from yesterday showing an H500 Euro Loop out to 240 hrs...Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Did the GFS have the same thermal profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Long range - out to 240 hours looks like the PV on our side of the pole per the EC. That's not torchy. Beyond that...agree w/ Freak...its all high uncertainty and low skill outputs. Solid cross polar flow for the foreseeable future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Looks like my Advisory prediction came to fruition. It would be funny if KBGM issues an AND while KBUF doesn't, lol. That would definitely be a first for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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