Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would not take those snowfall outputs literally. Have you guys seen the 2M temps during the time of "snowfall". We are going to need this system to "create" it's own cold air as there is currently no source of it. It rarely happens in Upstate, more common in dynamic systems within Nor'Easters. Gon be low ratios but the Omega is screaming so this would produce some decent dynamic cooling if it verified. Best guess is this would be between 8:1 and 10:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Has extremely high bust potential in both track and marginal temps. We need extreme dynamic cooling to take place in order to get heavy snow below 1k feet. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Has the NE forum tossed the 00Z NAM yet? I already did just in case. Gonna love seeing GFS roll in. Buckle up cuz I think every run perturbation is going to f@ck with people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just for the lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Come on let's have some fun... it's been a mediocre winter... go figure we hit March and we jump on board short range with fantasy land record snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just for the lols Can't even use this method as temps in the BL will be 33-34F, lol! Kuchera output need not apply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Can't even use this method as temps in the BL will be 33-34F, lol! Kuchera output need not apply Yeah I know but its the NAM and its fun to make fun of it. What are your thoughts on this storm in terms of thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just for the lols How freaking heavy would that snow be... Think I saw 5"+ total QPF there. Talk about concrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I’d love to be in the Bristol Hills at 1600’ + for this one. Think they will be the winners with this one with 2’ plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, WesterlyWx said: I’d love to be in the Bristol Hills at 1600’ + for this one. Think they will be the winners with this one with 2’ plus. Taking the NAM over the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM 3km follows the Euro path. This is more likely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 RGEM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Taking the NAM over the Euro? Just going with my gut honestly lol. Been too busy to even pay much attention to models. Is nice to have something to track though. Was in Florida last week, 90 degrees almost every day. Record heat there, felt absolutely fantastic and had me wanting summer for sure, but I surely wouldn’t pass up on a nice snowstorm (6”+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM 3km follows the Euro path. This is more likely IMO. Impossible to say if the 3K or 32K has a better placement but the 10:1 ratios look more reasonable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Just going with my gut honestly lol. Been too busy honestly to even pay much attention to models. Is nice to have something to track though. Was in Florida last week, 90 degrees almost every day, record heat there, felt absolutely fantastic and had me wanting summer for sure, but I surely wouldn’t pass up on a nice snowstorm (6”+). I canceled my Hawaii trip for next month, going to Iceland in summer instead and Miami in April. Today felt great, but can definitely use a little more winter before we close it out. This type of set-up is very rare for this area. It's like an Oct 2006 but in the synoptic variety. There is also the potential for a lake enhanced event following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: Impossible to say if the 3K or 32K has a better placement but the 10:1 ratios look more reasonable... Either way, this thing has incredible dynamics. One of the most fun storms to track in awhile, no matter the outcome. It's a very rare occurrence to see this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I know but its the NAM and its fun to make fun of it. What are your thoughts on this storm in terms of thermals? It's a really tough system to forecast because it all depends on the dynamics, and everything I have looked at would tell me snow, for where I am, after say 09Z Friday which would still produce 8-10" of snow even with ratios in the 8-10" range. The one thing we may be forgetting is the fact that we have quite a bit of phase changes going on and that usually causes havoc on our precious atmosphere but I digress and think the majority of the precip should fall as rn/sn mix here in So Oswego but may well be a raging snowstorm in the hills in So. Onondaga county so there's a huge bust potential with this system. I'd expect the thermals to either head one way or the other and not stay in the middle. When you have a SLP, H850 LP and the H700 LP all traversing your area to your South by 300 miles and it rains, especially in Early March, then something is seriously wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Also has some freezing rain tossed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Either way, this thing has incredible dynamics. One of the most fun storms to track in awhile, no matter the outcome. It's a very rare occurrence to see this type of storm. Agree. And I’m still skeptical as it’s still early in the game. It’s like having a one run lead in the middle innings with the starter nearing 100 pitches and the Mets bullpen looming...to use a spring analogy from my team... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 4.5" of QPF over Rochester with most of it being in frozen variety less then 48 hours out. Don't think I've ever seen that. .01% chance of that happening, especially with no lake influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: Agree. And I’m still skeptical as it’s still early in the game. It’s like having a one run lead in the middle innings with the starter nearing 100 pitches and the Mets bullpen looming...to use a spring analogy from my team...:axe: Except the Yankees will beat the Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Except the Yankees will beat the Mets. Well yeah...we know that! The Mets bullpen is like the NAM outside of 48 hrs...usually throwing gasoline to put out the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 4.5" of QPF over Rochester with most of it being in frozen variety less then 48 hours out. Don't think I've ever seen that. .01% chance of that happening, especially with no lake influences. Just Stupid is all I have to say and 2/3rds of that would be rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS way north. Flood watches! LOFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Round and round we go. Living on the edge. -temps -track -season lots of limiting factors. I’m still bullish. Anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Low transfer from Toronto to Boston from hours 54 to 60, tossing that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On top of this being a truly anomalous storm track, cutting across central PA like it is, it basically closes off right over C PA and heads due East, so its stacking just to our South, and slowly to boot, because of the downstream blocking that's developing. I wanna be Dave right now and wish for the best, but I have been burned way too many times this season and it has made me very apprehensive to choosing a particular Global model or Mesoscale or short range model so I'll be optimistic and stay that way till thursday 18Z and especially Friday's 00Z run will or shall I say should put the nail in the coffin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Look at hr 60! OMG everyone hating on this from Buffalo to Boston. Help us Obewan Kenobe, you’re our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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