Polarbear Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 You know I'd be more on board for this event if I thought they'd plow the roads when it snows, but for many depts plowing this year has been seemingly of little importance. So for someone who puts down 400-500 miles a day, just rain will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Polarbear said: You know I'd be more on board for this event if I thought they'd plow the roads when it snows, but for many depts plowing this year has been seemingly of little importance. So for someone who puts down 400-500 miles a day, just rain will be fine. Wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 New GFS is very wet for CNY. A little too warm but if that was snow we would be talking foot+ everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, phoenixny said: NAM 18Z That's not happening. NAM is on something. Shows 20"+ for central Michigan, just unheard of for this type of track. Euro is most likely path IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 8+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 CIPS analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2018022712&map=thbCOOP72 Most likely analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Probably so! I am not getting worked up over this one yet. I think Euro had less precip for Syracuse but the NAM and GFS have had higher amounts of precip. At least it's something to track. Dam temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM does a loop near the benchmark. Absolutely crushes New England back through NY. Terrific looking system. 18z GFS takes the primary pretty far NW which would pump in the warmth. As usual, Thruway corridor looking good. 0z Euro will be a reliable starting point for confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Good AFD from BUF: By Thursday night, a fast-moving northern stream impulse diving southeast from the northern Plains will interact with the southern stream energy. There remains some amount of uncertainty as how this interaction plays out, but guidance is trending towards a phased solution as the northern stream impulse carves out a potent shortwave trough that will become increasingly negatively-tilted. Where and how this phasing exactly occurs will be critical to the Thursday night into Friday forecast, as the surface low exits to the southeast and gets absorbed into the coastal low with colder air wrapping back in across the region. The colder air will lead to a transition from rain to snow, with confidence beginning to increase in widespread accumulations. However, the exact amounts remain quite uncertain at this time. The boundary layer will be slow to cool, limiting accumulation efficiency, but will be counteracted by the impressive dynamical cooling overspreading the region underneath the upper level system. There may also be enhanced deformation and trowal forcing within the systems cold conveyer belt possibly leading to more efficient snow accumulation. A cooling northerly flow on the back side of the system will also allow for some enhanced amounts from lake response and upslope. At this stage of the forecast, and based on uncertainty of how the upper level system plays out, will maintain a conservative approach to this event. But this system certainly bears watching over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, phoenixny said: New GFS is very wet for CNY. A little too warm but if that was snow we would be talking foot+ everywhere. Gon rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Everyone is getting their hopes up because of precip output maps. How well has that tactic worked out this yr so far? Dynamics don't work for us here in CNY. Dynamics works for KBOX cwa only so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS is just Stupid with its depiction of rain for the Ottawa Region of Canada. Seriously though, simply horrific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Not a lot of wiggle room for us here between the system being too north and warm and too south and suppressed. That being said having NAM and Euro at least somewhat on our side is promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 30 miles could be the difference between a couple inches and a foot, still have nearly 72 hrs to figure this out..P&c now showing a slop event with r/s transitioning to rain on Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Interesting storm on the horizon...I like these high stakes storms - either 2" of rain followed by an inch of slush, or buried under 12"+. I suppose out west here we always have the risk of less QPF, but seems pretty likely that someone in our area will get into heavy precip rates with that screaming moist easterly flow. Me thinks someone might be in for quite a late winter treat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 30 miles could be the difference between a couple inches and a foot, still have nearly 72 hrs to figure this out..P&c now showing a slop event with r/s transitioning to rain on Friday.. Evolution of this will be complex and likely defy allowing a model consensus right up till game time I'd expect...probably will have to pick a solution that makes the most sense and even at that I think a March 2001 type debacle (surprise) is in the offing. I think this area is in trouble with antecedent BL too warm and energy xfering to coastal. Easy to get caught somewhere in between. I quickly looked at a Skew-T of 18z NAM at 60 hrs...precip panel showed snow falling but sfc was upper 30s (?)...that doesn't add up. Or it's white rain...I think low ratios are a real problem no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam just went ape **** on Rochester. Wow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 00Z NAM looks interesting. Big -UVV at 700mb ripping into CNY/WNY and sfc looks cold enough. SNE caught in the mother of all dryslots. We Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 RGEM and NAM 3KM are farther south. But we are within 48 hours here so it's becoming increasingly likely someone in this forum gets a good snowstorm depending on thermals. Still like locations above 1k feet to get the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Um, did Tim hijack the Nam and program it to show a fantasy storm for BUF to ROC to KSYR? Bookmark that run for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Some pretty impressive dynamics on that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Only problem here is it’s 2.5 days out and...it’s NAM. Look at these -UVV’s. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Oh my... I wish we had a clown horn sound effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 I would not take those snowfall outputs literally. Have you guys seen the 2M temps during the time of "snowfall". We are going to need this system to "create" it's own cold air as there is currently no source of it. It rarely happens in Upstate, more common in dynamic systems within Nor'Easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Has extremely high bust potential in both track and marginal temps. We need extreme dynamic cooling to take place in order to get heavy snow below 1k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 00Z NAM looks interesting. Big -UVV at 700mb ripping into CNY/WNY and sfc looks cold enough. SNE caught in the mother of all dryslots. We Toss. That would be some intense snowfall rates with that. I would pay 100 bucks for the NAM to verify. If GFS stays on the warm train will be interesting to here the local mets in morning with their take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can’t wait to see the sref graph. Gonna be some members near 40” for Kroc. Fun stuff. Some of you are gonna be shoveling 18” of snow while saying why this won’t happen. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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