Syrmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: What about the Tolland Hills? Sorry, forgot. Likely 2-3 feet of snow there, jacking as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Icon giving us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 CMC looking more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Someone’s gonna get shellacked. I still think anyone’s game. Time will tell. Its not a great set up but it’s the only game in town. So I’ll stay excited. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Someone’s gonna get shellacked. I still think anyone’s game. Time will tell. Its not a great set up but it’s the only game in town. So I’ll stay excited. I guess. There you go Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Yup, Euro way colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kbuf A very untrustworthy weather system is then set to impact the region Thursday into Friday. Why untrustworthy? It has nothing to do with the chance of precipitation, which is near 100%, nor the QPF amounts which are generally around inch centered over the western Southern Tier, tapering off to around a quarter inch in the North Country. It all comes down to thermodynamic profiles and how much cold air is available to cause a transition to snow on Friday. This event has been mainly billed as a rain event that is expected to change over to and end with some minor or nuisance snow on Friday. But not so fast... Let`s have a closer look at the details. This low pressure system is forecast to develop as a northern stream wave tracks from Montana to the Great Lakes, while a southern stream wave ejects from the Four Corners region and phases with the northern stream wave near the Ohio Valley. The result will be a strengthening surface low tracking either just over the Southern Tier or just south of the forecast area over northern PA. Dynamics with this deepening low and phasing upper level wave look fairly impressive, all while interacting with a deep easterly flow of Atlantic moisture back across western NY. This will undoubtably result in widespread rain overspreading the region from SW to NE Thursday afternoon and evening. Here`s where the forecast gets interesting and the uncertainty grows. Synoptic dynamics Thursday night into Friday morning look outstanding as upper level diffluence maximizes over the forecast as the mid-level wave strengthens and becomes a closed low. Moderate to heavy precipitation will likely fill in north of the surface low along a deformation zone and possible TROWAL with a fetch of rich Atlantic moisture. Where exactly this heavier precipitation sets up will depend on the exact track of the surface low. The 00Z GFS remains the farthest north with the low, taking over the western Southern Tier, while the 00Z EC and its ensembles track the low the northern tier of PA. Perhaps even more importantly, this track will determine the thermodynamic profile over the forecast area, with a slightly farther south track more favorable for pulling in colder air across the region sooner. The 00Z ECMWF suite seems to favor this overall cooler solution, which would favor much quicker transition to snow Thursday night and possibly significant snow totals. However, even with a colder solution like the EC, have to be dubious of the possibility of an above freezing TROWAL wrapping in off the Atlantic that could force precipitation to linger longer than expected as rain or a wintry mix. Also, now that we are getting into March, the sun angle is getting higher and daytime snow accumulations are getting more difficult, especially on paved surfaces. However, if this storm system maximizes in the early morning hours Friday as currently advertised, this effect may be mitigated. So where does this leave us? Have adjusted the forecast to incorporate more of the colder air solutions favored by several global models including the EC and its ensembles. This adjustment is also out of respect to the climatologically favorable setup for snow as a low tracks south of the forecast area, which is also reflected in decent snow totals still reflected in the CIPS analogs based off the warmer GFS. Will also add note of the possible snowfall in the HWO, although the range of possible outcomes remains quite large at this point with respect to snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Almost looks lake enhanced south of ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Sun angle! I was wondering when that would surface in an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Tim! Welcome back. I need backup in here. Been fighting off these negative Nancy’s all week. Euro does have some enhancement. I’m not gonna jump on those totals (my god!) but it’ll be thrown into the mix. Same idea as before, NAO crashes, phased event, climatologically we get nailed in early March, tons of energy, it’s South of us, energy hangs back as a HUGE storm develops over the shipping zones= somebody here gets shellacked. Still thinking elevation helps but it’s not necessary. NWS mentions diurnal effects which don’t concern me, it’s early March NOT mid April. Love to see a euro snowfall totals map. I wanna visit Clown Town before it gets closed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 z GFS with a Euro like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Dynamic cooling for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Dave ftw? Too early to tell but let’s hope so lol I grew up in nyc/nj, I love wet snowstorms.. Enjoy this image for the next 2 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Almost looks lake enhanced south of ontario. Too warm for lake enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Canadian not terrible considering the fact it’s mostly snow with only about a tenth wasted to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Canadian is a simplified old fashioned snowstorm for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Sorry wolfie, I didn’t see you already posted Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Too warm for lake enhanced Euro was cold enough for enhancement. Prob not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Well lake enhancement plus upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM is south which is odd, I'd probably toss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro should be fun to see today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I must say we did receive 24.5" at KBUF much later into March last year...im not so sure why models are struggling with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 This storm looks like a fugazy to me. I'd be careful with expectations...I don't think I'll buy into this until I actually see it snowing. Way too many things can go wrong. But its always interesting to see modeling flail about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Sun agnle overrated in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro followed the NAM and went south. .4 for Roch, .8 for Buf, SW corner of state gets destroyed 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Ripped from the other forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ripped from the other forum. That’s slop too. Would be biggest event of season here synoptic wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ripped from the other forum. Don't let Freak see this. But not to worry, behind curtain #2 we have the GFS...and even on the further north GFS, the 12z sounding is brutal for KSYR in the boundary layer for virtually the whole duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 What a gradient across Onondaga County! 2-3 inches across the north (me) to a foot south. Anything we do get on the lake plain will be slop worthy of a spring snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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