BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 This should be cold enough for snow for our area next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 Kind of a weird pattern evolution. I really don't know what to think. PNA relaxes, but then -NAO goes towards neutral. Pacific seems neutral, we need a -EPO or + PNA to get truly cold air into our region. Cold air is there, but no delivering method. The SSW PV split went the wrong direction, Europe is getting record cold. It seems the cold has been in Europe for 3 straight years now. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 The general storm track from the GFS ENS would seem favorable for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 That has to produce something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Euro clown map from the NE sub forum. Let’s see how close this comes to verifying! Of course there’s a hole over CNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 58 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Euro clown map from the NE sub forum. Let’s see how close this comes to verifying! Of course there’s a hole over CNY! Still thinking this is an elevation storm for the most part. Euro snow maps can be deceiving as I think they include every form of mixed qpf as snowfall. 192 hrs away...this will change a lot but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 No point in focusing on snowfall maps at this juncture. If it’s a dynamic storm we should have a good shot at accumulation. It’s still snow season, diurnal affects aren’t drastic. IDK. I like the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: You guys didn't get hit last March? 20-30" across WNY/Upstate Nope. Looks like we missed out on that. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459&timeframe=2&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2018&Day=23&Year=2017&Month=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Kind of a weird pattern evolution. I really don't know what to think. PNA relaxes, but then -NAO goes towards neutral. Pacific seems neutral, we need a -EPO or + PNA to get truly cold air into our region. Cold air is there, but no delivering method. The SSW PV split went the wrong direction, Europe is getting record cold. It seems the cold has been in Europe for 3 straight years now. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Actually, this looks to be the coldest western Europe has seen since 2013, may even reach 2009-2010 levels. Don't think it will be as cold as 1947 and 1963 over there, though (1963 was the coldest winter since 1740 in England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I'm seeing interesting parallels to the late winter/early springs of years like 1976, 1984. 1997. All of those years followed a La Nina winter and all saw quite chilly springs, I believe. Do years when La Ninas transition to weak El Ninos see cooler than average springs in our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looking at 700 and 850’s, this would be snow for a lot of us. I’m not buying all that rain. With a storm parked over NYC, in the 980s... Its on!! I’m not gonna get a lot done over the next few days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Looking at 700 and 850’s, this would be snow for a lot of us. I’m not buying all that rain. With a storm parked over NYC, in the 980s... Its on!! I’m not gonna get a lot done over the next few days. Lol Heavy rain. CNY. WNY. On to the next one. But there isn't one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Euro doesn’t even make it up here, parent LP to NW PA and then a 2ndry off the coast, precipitation up to kroc/ksyr, looks borderline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Yea Gfs was a torch, mid 40s-low 50s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Pretty simple to see, original lp comes out of the SW torching the BL, by the time winds flip, precipitation is gone..Obviously that has to change lol Euro is colder due to a quicker transfer but as usual precipitation gets pulled east.. 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 It'll be the End of Morch, and ppl will still be searching for snow, lol. Give it up already ppl as this is and was NOT our yr once again. On to Spring and Summer then on to another mediocre Winter, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 KSYR will most likely stay below our avg and we won't even come close, up here North of the thruway. Next season, I won't even look at LR forecasts cause their all a joke and JB can think he's the Guru but he too busted big time this season so I'm don't wirh LR garbage with telecommections, MJO, blocking, analogs and whatever other tactics are used to get to their forecast.The Weather will do what it wants when it wants and the models are simply tools and this yr they were horrific, IMO!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 I'll see everyone next yr and let's hope we can keep the snow otg for more than a few days at a time next season.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'll see everyone next yr and let's hope we can keep the snow otg for more than a few days at a time next season. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Was it really that bad for you this year? It wasn't great up here, but December and early January delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Kind of a weird pattern evolution. I really don't know what to think. PNA relaxes, but then -NAO goes towards neutral. Pacific seems neutral, we need a -EPO or + PNA to get truly cold air into our region. Cold air is there, but no delivering method. The SSW PV split went the wrong direction, Europe is getting record cold. It seems the cold has been in Europe for 3 straight years now. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Typically polar vortex splitting events favor Eurasia. Polar vortex displacement events favor North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Was it really that bad for you this year? It wasn't great up here, but December and early January delivered. Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Little windy out there this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Look, I know it’s close. But come on. This HAS potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Bad Freak will be gone and back 4 times by six pm....Today. He’s an emotional type. Which is why I love him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Hard to snow when the boundary layer is this warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: KSYR will most likely stay below our avg and we won't even come close, up here North of the thruway. Next season, I won't even look at LR forecasts cause their all a joke and JB can think he's the Guru but he too busted big time this season so I'm don't wirh LR garbage with telecommections, MJO, blocking, analogs and whatever other tactics are used to get to their forecast. The Weather will do what it wants when it wants and the models are simply tools and this yr they were horrific, IMO! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Syracuse has done much better then Buffalo the last few years in relation to normal. Outside the lake belts WNY has been the least snowiest location in the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Little windy out there this morning... The ice will be gone by Mid March. Early beach season incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 20 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm seeing interesting parallels to the late winter/early springs of years like 1976, 1984. 1997. All of those years followed a La Nina winter and all saw quite chilly springs, I believe. Do years when La Ninas transition to weak El Ninos see cooler than average springs in our region? Awesome posts Ottawa. I always felt like Toronto should be in our forum instead of GL, same with Cleveland. We're both connected to the same lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: KSYR will most likely stay below our avg and we won't even come close, up here North of the thruway. Next season, I won't even look at LR forecasts cause their all a joke and JB can think he's the Guru but he too busted big time this season so I'm don't wirh LR garbage with telecommections, MJO, blocking, analogs and whatever other tactics are used to get to their forecast. The Weather will do what it wants when it wants and the models are simply tools and this yr they were horrific, IMO! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I do sort of agree on the LR teleconnection stuff being a bunch of hooey. From a seasonal predictive standpoint, everyone wants a magic decoder ring that doesn't really exist. It's interesting to study or observe tendencies but I think a bit too much is done with them from an analogue forecasting standpoint. Edit: I should say a bit too much creedance is placed on them, despite limited data sets and natural chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I do sort of agree on the LR teleconnection stuff being a bunch of hooey. From a seasonal predictive standpoint, everyone wants a magic decoder ring that doesn't really exist. It's interesting to study or observe tendencies but I think a bit too much is done with them from an analogue forecasting standpoint. They're is always more to the picture than teleconnections. But a +PNA 90% of the time will deliver below average temps to the NE, same with Negative EPO. You play the percentages. There is no positive PNA in the 15 day forecast, so that is why temps will average normal/above average. The Negative NAO is very overrated for our area, it's meaningless. It means a lot more for big time nor'easters for the New England side. It doesn't correlate well to below average temps, more for storm tracks. It allows storms that travel up the eastern seaboard to go negative tilt via blocking and travel slower than usual with strung out storms like they had most of this year. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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