BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Tuesday has a shot at 70, Euro is still king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 We may scrape out an inch here. Not there yet...I still have snow piled up along driveway and patchy coverage that'll look whiter in the morning...for a little while. #sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Hoping on a big March. Not really seeing it but it would be odd not to have at least one beast in March. My bet is middle to late month. Remember, the big ones happen in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 I'm nearing 1.5" while not expecting much and it continues to backbuild into the finger lakes so we should see at least a few more hours of mod to sometimes heavy sn so not bad and this graphic says it all! There's also a nice disturbance moving through from the west as we also have some upper level energy rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Yup same here, huge fat wet flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Ended up with 1.5" This is it for a while it appears. I suspect we are not done for the season but...gonna need a decent March to reach normal snow for season. It's doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Local news weather is calling for high of 68 Tuesday and Wednesday? crazy if it does get that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 52 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Local news weather is calling for high of 68 Tuesday and Wednesday? crazy if it does get that high. Looks like 50s and 60s all week. That's average for April not mid Feb. Crazy. Washington's Birthday Rain, mainly after 8am. High near 52. South wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain. High near 61. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Friday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 12Z Euro looks to be building blocking over the North Atlantic at the end of the month. Right now all that seems to mean for us is lower heights building in from the east with probably temps in the 30s and blah sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Picked up .8" last night, passed 120" on the season. Long range the PNA relaxes, NAO goes negative for first time of the winter, and EPO goes slightly negative. It favors the east coast much more than us, but it should get colder. I don't think we see any appreciable snow/cold until at least March. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 I think March 3rd/4th is the transition date and it should last most of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 I predict a big time east coast storm sometime in mid March. Mid Atlantic/NE, almost always coincide with that type of Atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 CIPS analogs catching on as well. PNA relaxing is pretty evident. PNA relaxes: Negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 March is usually Upstate's best synoptic month so things could get interesting. Enjoy the next 10 days of warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 We had 25.2 at KBUF last March 7th I believe...winter not over just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 March 15 last year, ~24 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Neg NAO not happening. SSTs south of Greenland too cold. New climate norm. March to spring, don’t look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 16 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Neg NAO not happening. SSTs south of Greenland too cold. New climate norm. March to spring, don’t look back. Someone in the Lakes sub-forum posted that all indices seem to be pointing towards an eastern tough in March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Average temps at the end of feb into early March on the EPS, if nyc can see snow in Jan with an avg high of 39 we can see snow with highs in the mid 30s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Somehow euro manages some snow just south of the ny state border on Thursday.. That has to be bogus since it’s not even showing 850 temperatures below 0 south of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Between hr72-78 that region goes below freezing at 850 then bounces back up at hr 84, probably a mixed bag nonetheless..It would be all snow if precipitation moved a little north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 All 3 Ensemble packages show a stormy and cold look after day 10. Not that far out now, so more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 And just a reminder of where we live, you can get big LES storms in April. Maximum Snowfall: Lk.Ontario 38" (Redfield), Lk. Erie 26" (Perrysburg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Nws has temps approaching 70 over the next 2 days, the 12z euro was considerably cooler with temps in the upper 50s, gfs had mid-upper 60's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Did you guys see this yet? Crazy! Great model agreement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 If the Pacific begins to cooperate which looks to happen around March 4-6th timeframe, we will have some ridiculous cold in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Analogs for next week. Negative NAO going strong, need that Negative PNA to weaken some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 MJO cycling into colder phase as well. Well, there is my update. Going to enjoy 70 degrees tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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