wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 12z Gfs and Canadian both have it but misses to the south for the most part even though cmc throws some light snow up to wny/southern tier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 In a terrible pattern they will find a way lol Still manages some light snow out this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 12z Gfs and Canadian both have it but misses to the south for the most part even though cmc throws some light snow up to wny/southern tier.. Same with 12Z Eurotrash from what I can see thru 120 hrs. Then we probably Torch into Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I wonder if anyone has ever done a seasonal snowfall climatology based on the GFS and Euro, broken down by forecast hour. In other words, take all the forecasts for a particular hour for a whole season, and add up the snowfall totals. How different would it look from reality? Sounds like the kind of thing some bored meteorologist or grad student might do...anyone ever seen something like it? Does southern New England get 200" per year if you only look at the 240 or 360 h forecast? There sure seem to be a lot more big coastal storms in the long range model forecasts, than actually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, coh said: I wonder if anyone has ever done a seasonal snowfall climatology based on the GFS and Euro, broken down by forecast hour. In other words, take all the forecasts for a particular hour for a whole season, and add up the snowfall totals. How different would it look from reality? Sounds like the kind of thing some bored meteorologist or grad student might do...anyone ever seen something like it? Does southern New England get 200" per year if you only look at the 240 or 360 h forecast? There sure seem to be a lot more big coastal storms in the long range model forecasts, than actually occur. It would show over 500” for all of WNY. It boggles my mind that the models don’t ‘learn’. Always overly aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Well it appears from this vantage point winter might be coming to a close. The ensembles are meh and the temp profiles for the next 15 days show no cold spells that last for more than a day or 2. Time to turn the calendar and bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Well it appears from this vantage point winter might be coming to a close. The ensembles are meh and the temp profiles for the next 15 days show no cold spells that last for more than a day or 2. Time to turn the calendar and bring on spring.I'm in, as I've been in, for the past week or 2. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm in, as I've been in, for the past week or 2. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk While I certainly agree that winter is more or less over, we all know that March holds many of our Top 10 snow events. Last year Rochester had its biggest event of the year and a top 10 24 hour snowfall on the 15th...so I'm sure we still have a big hit or two left to go. Just sucks that we can write off the rest of this month, which historically can be quite a cold and snowy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Loving this weather, temp is 55 but feels warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro now showing a couple inches into cny for Saturday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Euro now showing a couple inches into cny for Saturday night.. We're done till March it appears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 0z euro still has a couple inches into ksyr with about 3-4” into Oneida co, and little clipper potential on the 24th verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: 0z euro still has a couple inches into ksyr with about 3-4” into Oneida co, and little clipper potential on the 24th verbatim... I'll take it I guess. Outside shot of limping to 100" by end of weekend...or maybe end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yea it’s bout time I do this too lol We will go below avg once April gets here when no one wants it..Crappy end to winter but wtf u gonna do lol On to next year..Maybe I should save the $25 next month for WB ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea it’s bout time I do this too lol We will go below avg once April gets here when no one wants it..Crappy end to winter but wtf u gonna do lol On to next year..Maybe I should save the $25 next month for WB ha ha I cancelled my WB sub a month ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yeah don't waste $25.00 on WB, that's like 3 turkey club subs for lunch. You can also get that data for free on twitter and other sub-forums. Snowing lightly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's funny, when we finally get the atlantic to cooperate the pacific doesn't. Like I said Pacific is much more important for cold air then the atlantic is. A positive PNA and negative EPO are the most important factors for sustained cold, especially the PNA which almost always induces a GL trough. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 The Euro weeklies look terrible too. The PNA slightly weakens towards end of month, but Climo starts to work against us. At least another 2 weeks before anything wintry, possibly more. Starting March 11 Buffalos average high goes above 40, so you need a decently cold pattern to even get snow. The totality of winter might have been 5 weeks, the last 3 weeks of December, the last week of January and first week of Feb. I received 95% of my snow during that mainframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Snow is actually coming down moderately now in Williamsville... sticking nicely to roofs, cars, grass but not to any pavement surfaces. Rest of the month looks bleak for sure but I’m definitely ready for spring, although I’d take a March storm like last year where I got over 2’ in Amherst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Snow is actually coming down moderately now in Williamsville... sticking nicely to roofs, cars, grass but not to any pavement surfaces. Rest of the month looks bleak for sure but I’m definitely ready for spring, although I’d take a March storm like last year where I got over 2’ in Amherst. Must be associated with the secondary CF passage....enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RLMFAO, I guess this is the norm now in Mid February weather, then a cold March and friggen April. Can't stand it as it always happens when Winter attacks early as it did this yr in December! EURO, what a f'in joke! Nice SE ridge, where was it when the Arctis air was prevalent for a time, but No, it pumps in February, LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I love it! All the February cold forecasts including JB's are all a huge BUST!! A western states mid-level trough and strong southeast states ridge will hold a baroclinic zone from the Southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes through midweek. Deep moist southwest flow across western and central NY will promote well above normal temperatures Tuesday with widespread rain likely lingering into Wednesday. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures looking like they will surge into the mid to upper 60s across western NY and low 60s east of Lake Ontario. The warmest readings will be in the Genesee Valley with temperatures possibly cracking the 70 degree mark, while the coolest readings will be near the lake shores where southwest winds will keep city of Buffalo limited to the 50s. The baroclinic zone will hold a stalled or slowly moving frontal zone over or in vicinity of western and north-central NY supporting the likely extended period of rainfall. WPC QPF for Mon- Tues indicate potential for more than one inch of rain across much of western and north-central NY. This could be enough to cause rises on area creeks and rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Meanwhile it looks like a very cold end to February across all of Northern Europe. Probably big snows in the Alps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Meanwhile it looks like a very cold end to February across all of Northern Europe. Probably big snows in the Alps Yeah the SSW caused the PV to split and go into western US and Western Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Almost that time of year, let’s play ball!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Meanwhile it looks like a very cold end to February across all of Northern Europe. Probably big snows in the Alps Western Europe.is never cold. A 30 degree night is epic cold there. Its pansy land as far as winter goes. Despite mild winter I read where Alps have been smoked with snow this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Virga storm in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Light snow here with a fresh coating, just noticed the euro was decently West this afternoon, dropping about 1/4” LE in the local area, even a little lake effect tomorrow morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Snowing lightly here with decent flake size. Too bad whatever falls will be a memory in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Grass is almost completely covered here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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