BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It looks legit IMO. GFS has performed best last few months. Also the GEFS are all much farther NW than OP run with them being much stronger with more QPF. I think Upstate has a good shot at a decent snowstorm, especially Rochester East. Inclined to agree. EC hasn't been all that impressive vs GFS this winter, at least with northeast events. The fact that it's further west than other models is possibly a good sign as, IIRC, that also happened during a decent event earlier in Jan or late Dec. Everything caved to GFS eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Inclined to agree. EC hasn't been all that impressive vs GFS this winter, at least with northeast events. The fact that it's further west than other models is possibly a good sign as, IIRC, that also happened during a decent event earlier in Jan or late Dec. Everything caved to GFS eventually. KBUF doesn't seem to think so... the two main time frames for any snow would come during the day Sunday and again on Tuesday. Between these systems will be a coastal storm that will not be an issue for our forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: KBUF doesn't seem to think so... the two main time frames for any snow would come during the day Sunday and again on Tuesday. Between these systems will be a coastal storm that will not be an issue for our forecast area. Just going to post that in fact KBUF sems disinterested with the whole next week regarding snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 hours ago, vortmax said: KBUF doesn't seem to think so... the two main time frames for any snow would come during the day Sunday and again on Tuesday. Between these systems will be a coastal storm that will not be an issue for our forecast area. Buf has said things like this so many times over the years only to backtrack 24 hours later. They really don't look outside of 4 or 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 23 minutes ago, vortmax said: KBUF doesn't seem to think so... the two main time frames for any snow would come during the day Sunday and again on Tuesday. Between these systems will be a coastal storm that will not be an issue for our forecast area. KBGM seemed non plussed also based on AFDs I've read over the last day or so. If GFS persists and other models shift it's way, their tunes will change. I'd want to see this on 00Z Friday runs to start getting seriously interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 That Sunday night storm is getting close to being a reality...one more set of runs puts us inside 84 hours and imo a pretty good indicator of what will happen. Let's hope tomorrow's runs lock into the same track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 You know I'm desperate to see this verify when I'm watching off hour runs. I almost never look at them. 18z GFS continues West with a decent hit for all of us.. I might just weenie tag myself on this one when it blows up in my face. That said, if we are going to chase off hour runs, it brings another great storm track up through the Tennessee valley on Wednesday. It would make quite the epic week of snowboarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Wow, 0z GFS is WAAAYYYYY West. Weaker but wetter and a nice track for WNY. Cannot believe how far this has corrected in 48 hours. I'm damn near afraid its going to turn into a lakes cutter, haha. Another storm right on its heels. Someone has to be getting intrigued by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Wow, 0z GFS is WAAAYYYYY West. Weaker but wetter and a nice track for WNY. Cannot believe how far this has corrected in 48 hours. I'm damn near afraid its going to turn into a lakes cutter, haha. Another storm right on its heels. Someone has to be getting intrigued by now. Did you see that 144 storm that follows? Crazy pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 This is probably the best possible track for long duration big time snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you see that 144 storm that follows? Crazy pattern coming up. I'm afraid to look and get sucked in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6z is still the same...maybe a bit weaker for the Sunday Monday storm but midweek storm still there and yet KBUF STILL not even mentioning the first one...odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 KBUF quickly changed their tune for sun-Mon and the mid-week event is also mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Obviously not going with the GFS.. A clipper low is forecast to track from Missouri to the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night through Sunday. Although the surface low will be weak, the system will be supported by a fairly strong shortwave and ample moisture. There is good model agreement with this system, increasing confidence in a general light snowfall on Sunday with accumulation in the 2-4 inch ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This next week looks pretty awesome for snow potential around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The question is who are they going with??? Clearly the GFS ops and ensembles show the snow and so does EPS...thats confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The question is who are they going with??? Clearly the GFS ops and ensembles show the snow and so does EPS...thats confusing. We’re still 3-4 days away. Lots can still change. By tonight we may be talking about a whiff but as of right now I’m also confused as to what they’re looking at because as you said the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles all show a pretty good hit. Hoping this comes to fruition as I only need about 15” to hit average for the year and 18” to hit 100” on the season, and if we could get that I would be pretty happy overall with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 EPS likes the 2nd event much more so then the Sunday event..Last nights ecm/ggem showed a general 1”-3”/2”-4” snowfall, probably what they are going with..Last few cycles of the Gfs has showed about 3/4” precipitation(KFZY), not sure any other model shows that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12z GFS...sunday 78 hours out...flush hit again...if there is not a different tone from KBUF at 3pm I'm going to start wondering what models they're choosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yup, last 2 runs..6z top, 12z bottom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Wolfue, what time range are those EPS outputs? Thru Sunday, Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 They go out 10days..(feb 1st -feb 10th) U can see day/hr at the bottom, 02/0z, 02/12z, 03/0z, 03/12z etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Looks promising even before the sun night thing happens. I don't think the below map includes that potential. Always promising to be in the yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Ggem still not overly impressed, inch here, inch there, not much for sun..(inch or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 NYC and surrounding areas are calling for straight RN next Wednesday. That bodes well for us I would think as their thinking this system heads close enough to the coast for both metro's to receive RN including KBOX! Obviously things can change and probably will, but I'm cautiously optimistic at this time. I also like our chances for a couple to several inches tonight into tomorrow from straight LES but moisture is lacking so it won't be, what it would be, if ample moisture was available. I'm good with 2-4" before Sunday - Mondays event. This is the pattern we've been looking for so lets hope it lasts for at least a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 When that CF comes barreling through its going to be an abrupt change with black ice, a good possibility as flash freezing may occur with such wicked temp drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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