Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Check out that PV split though. Ayuud would like that. Cold goes into western US and northwestern Europe. 

[Thinksnow18]

I see my prognostication has been realized.

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I see my prognostication has been realized.

Summer is my favorite season, but everyone else here only likes winter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Some signs at end of Feb into March of pattern change. This would bring temps close to 60.

[CNY_WX]

GFS is definitely cooler. This probably has us in the 40s. 

[Thinksnow18]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some signs at end of Feb into March of pattern change. This would bring temps close to 60.

You mean from the warm pettern were in now? I saw Cejka said this morning that right around that time we'd be turning much colder and LR models are pointing to winter from being far from over...maybe that's the storm the ushers in the change?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

You mean from the warm pettern were in now? I saw Cejka said this morning that right around that time we'd be turning much colder and LR models are pointing to winter from being far from over...maybe that's the storm the ushers in the change?

Well a negative NAO get's going but then the negative EPO goes away so not sure that is even a good look TBH. Outside chance at some snow this weekend but after that I don't think we see measurable snow until last few days of Feb. into Early March. The SSW leads to a PV split but the pacific and no blocking forces it into the west. -PNA almost always signals a warm stretch of weather for our area. 

[wolfie09]

Toasty

[lakeeffectkid383]

I'm at 98.9" for the season, so give me another 1.1" and I'll officially be ready for spring. I'm looking forward to a nice warm up, get outside and get the remaining a Christmas lights off my roof!

[BuffaloWeather]

A good winter is not judged by total snowfall for me, but rather big LES events or subsequent big snowfalls. I had that in December, so give this winter a B+. 

[rochesterdave]

For me, I never figure on winter being over until mid April. Roc has had decent events into early/mid May. And our big ones happen in March. 

[wolfie09]

Looking for a little silver lining 

[Syrmax]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A good winter is not judged by total snowfall for me, but rather big LES events or subsequent big snowfalls. I had that in December, so give this winter a B+. 

Bit early for grading but I was also mulling it over this past weekend, I am thinking B or C range here. Depends how it finishes over the next month. We've had bouts of serious cold and I am tracking for the normal range of snowfall...

After 3/15 we do snow but the heavy lifting is usually finished and after that and we get more consistent mild weather.

[TugHillMatt]

Hi, all! I will most likely be joining you guys over the next year, as my wife and I are looking at moving to upstate New York. I currently have resumes out and a few interviews coming up.

 

As a snow fanatic, I am happy to say the 4 best options are located in "snow belt" areas. My question for you guys is which one you think has the best winter in general. I.E. Best snowfalls, consistent snowfalls, and snowpack retention. I am a big fan of snow staying on the ground most, if not all, of winter. I have checked the "city data" forums, but people on there don't know weather like we do. I would love to hear your thoughts about the following places. Here they are:

1) Lakewood/Jamestown ( I would most likely live on the Chautauqua ridge close by)

 

2) Watertown (I would probably look at Copenhagen, but not sure about the commute. Do they plow the main rd. well?)

 

3) Lowville (I would love to find a home just west of town up higher in the Tug, but there are not many homes)

 

4) Morrisville in Madison County (Not in the direct path of heavy snowfalls, but seems to benefit a lot from orographic lifting. Supposedly averages around 130 inches? Plus climate seems cooler at its elevation. Looks like snow pack retention is really good?)

 

I look forward to reading responses.  

 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Hi, all! I will most likely be joining you guys over the next year, as my wife and I are looking at moving to upstate New York. I currently have resumes out and a few interviews coming up.

 

As a snow fanatic, I am happy to say the 4 best options are located in "snow belt" areas. My question for you guys is which one you think has the best winter in general. I.E. Best snowfalls, consistent snowfalls, and snowpack retention. I am a big fan of snow staying on the ground most, if not all, of winter. I have checked the "city data" forums, but people on there don't know weather like we do. I would love to hear your thoughts about the following places. Here they are:

1) Lakewood/Jamestown ( I would most likely live on the Chautauqua ridge close by)

 

2) Watertown (I would probably look at Copenhagen, but not sure about the commute. Do they plow the main rd. well?)

 

3) Lowville (I would love to find a home just west of town up higher in the Tug, but there are not many homes)

 

4) Morrisville in Madison County (Not in the direct path of heavy snowfalls, but seems to benefit a lot from orographic lifting. Supposedly averages around 130 inches? Plus climate seems cooler at its elevation. Looks like snow pack retention is really good?)

 

I look forward to reading responses.  

 

Will be awesome to have another poster in the snow belts! The Tughill beats belts off of Erie in almost every category. Higher elevation, lake never freezes, higher latitude, better synoptic. So no question if you're looking for snow staying on the ground all winter get as high as you can in the Tug. WNY doesn't retain snow well at all aside from highest elevations in southern tier. (Perrysburg, Colden, Boston, Mayville, South Dayton) We have quite a few posters from central New York that are more familiar with the tug than me, maybe they can give you specifics. 

[TugHillMatt]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Will be awesome to have another poster in the snow belts! The Tughill beats belts off of Erie in almost every category. Higher elevation, lake never freezes, higher latitude, better synoptic. So no question if you're looking for snow staying on the ground all winter get as high as you can in the Tug. WNY doesn't retain snow well at all aside from highest elevations in southern tier. (Perrysburg, Colden, Boston, Mayville, South Dayton) We have quite a few posters from central New York that are more familiar with the tug than me, maybe they can give you specifics. 

Thanks! Somehow I knew you would be the first to respond. Lol...If I got the job in Lakewood, I am thinking of trying to find a home just west of the of the Institute between Sherman and Mayville.

[WNYLakeEffect]

15 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Hi, all! I will most likely be joining you guys over the next year, as my wife and I are looking at moving to upstate New York. I currently have resumes out and a few interviews coming up.

 

As a snow fanatic, I am happy to say the 4 best options are located in "snow belt" areas. My question for you guys is which one you think has the best winter in general. I.E. Best snowfalls, consistent snowfalls, and snowpack retention. I am a big fan of snow staying on the ground most, if not all, of winter. I have checked the "city data" forums, but people on there don't know weather like we do. I would love to hear your thoughts about the following places. Here they are:

1) Lakewood/Jamestown ( I would most likely live on the Chautauqua ridge close by)

 

2) Watertown (I would probably look at Copenhagen, but not sure about the commute. Do they plow the main rd. well?)

 

3) Lowville (I would love to find a home just west of town up higher in the Tug, but there are not many homes)

 

4) Morrisville in Madison County (Not in the direct path of heavy snowfalls, but seems to benefit a lot from orographic lifting. Supposedly averages around 130 inches? Plus climate seems cooler at its elevation. Looks like snow pack retention is really good?)

 

I look forward to reading responses.  

 

I grew up in Lakewood. I agree with what BuffaloWeather said- the snow doesn't stick in most places. However, that being said, there are some higher hills near Cassadaga/Stockton/Sinclairville and near Findlay Lake/Sherman where the snow sticks longer, though still not like it does on the Tug. Both of those areas are about a 25-30 minute drive from the Jamestown area. Mayville is the largest of the towns on the ridge (and the nicest place to live, imo), but the town proper is more exposed and less wooded. Crazy winds and SUV-topping drifts on Portage Hill just outside of town, though. 

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Thanks! Somehow I knew you would be the first to respond. Lol...If I got the job in Lakewood, I am thinking of trying to find a home just west of the of the Institute between Sherman and Mayville.

Yeah, WNY has more opportunities if you're looking for a career. Sherman, Mayville, Perrsburg, Cassadaga would be the best spots in WNY for snow retention. They average 175-225" per year. If you want to live closer to Buffalo the best spots are the Boston Hills and Colden. They are the best spots in WNY IMO for highest snow totals and best retention while being close to modern conveniences and 30 minutes from downtown Buffalo.  

[winter_rules]

18 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Hi, all! I will most likely be joining you guys over the next year, as my wife and I are looking at moving to upstate New York. I currently have resumes out and a few interviews coming up.

 

As a snow fanatic, I am happy to say the 4 best options are located in "snow belt" areas. My question for you guys is which one you think has the best winter in general. I.E. Best snowfalls, consistent snowfalls, and snowpack retention. I am a big fan of snow staying on the ground most, if not all, of winter. I have checked the "city data" forums, but people on there don't know weather like we do. I would love to hear your thoughts about the following places. Here they are:

1) Lakewood/Jamestown ( I would most likely live on the Chautauqua ridge close by)

 

2) Watertown (I would probably look at Copenhagen, but not sure about the commute. Do they plow the main rd. well?)

 

3) Lowville (I would love to find a home just west of town up higher in the Tug, but there are not many homes)

 

4) Morrisville in Madison County (Not in the direct path of heavy snowfalls, but seems to benefit a lot from orographic lifting. Supposedly averages around 130 inches? Plus climate seems cooler at its elevation. Looks like snow pack retention is really good?)

 

I look forward to reading responses.  

 

I don’t think there is any question that Tug Hill is your best bet for snow retention based on the options you mentioned.  Draw a line from Lowville to Adams (i.e. NYS Rte 177) and stay south of that for the best snow retention.  Also run a line north/south about 5 miles east of and parallel to I-81and stay east of that line.  There won’t be as many housing options and you have to think about the reality of clearing significant snow nearly daily (and multiple times on many days) before you commit 100%.  It sounds cool but you need to truly think about the time, effort, and cost involved.  There is also a landfill in Rodman that can result in an unpleasant odor in that small area in the summer.  Carthage and Copenhagen areas are good options for commuting to Watertown or Lowville, but they will lose their snow much quicker than just a few miles due south.  It doesn’t seem like they would when driving around but it is a significant difference every single year.  Could also look to live farther south between Lorraine and Orwell and commute to Watertown.  

Outside of snow, Lowville is a nice small town which I like a lot, but can be considered “depressing” to some depending on your experience and preferences.  Watertown is much more robust with many more options for entertainment and employment.  Fort Drum is the main economic factor in the area and that affects all of the northern Tug Hill area.  Pulaski is a nice area about halfway between Watertown and Syracuse.  I used to live about 5 miles east of Pulaski and commuted to Syracuse.  Still miss all that snow but we visit regularly.  

[Syrmax]

CMC trying to show a snowstorm for next weekend.  Too bad it's just the Canadian. GFS suppressed.  Euro probably showing 70 degrees but will see what today's 12Z spits out.

[BuffaloWeather]

Get out the shorts 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Get out the shorts 

Not a chance. Might hit 60 near KBUF.

[southbuffalowx]

I am graduating this spring and will most likely be moving down to NYC this summer for work. The next 6 weeks will probably be my last shot at real winter for several years, but it's not looking too promising. 

 

I swear if next winter ends up being the next big LES event in the metro, and I'm away, I'll be pretty upset, since I was stuck in Amherst in 2014. 25" of snow per winter, after getting used to seeing single storms dump that will be difficult to get used to lol. 

[rochesterdave]

8 hours ago, blackrock said:

Hi, all! I will most likely be joining you guys over the next year, as my wife and I are looking at moving to upstate New York. I currently have resumes out and a few interviews coming up.

 

As a snow fanatic, I am happy to say the 4 best options are located in "snow belt" areas. My question for you guys is which one you think has the best winter in general. I.E. Best snowfalls, consistent snowfalls, and snowpack retention. I am a big fan of snow staying on the ground most, if not all, of winter. I have checked the "city data" forums, but people on there don't know weather like we do. I would love to hear your thoughts about the following places. Here they are:

1) Lakewood/Jamestown ( I would most likely live on the Chautauqua ridge close by)

 

2) Watertown (I would probably look at Copenhagen, but not sure about the commute. Do they plow the main rd. well?)

 

3) Lowville (I would love to find a home just west of town up higher in the Tug, but there are not many homes)

 

4) Morrisville in Madison County (Not in the direct path of heavy snowfalls, but seems to benefit a lot from orographic lifting. Supposedly averages around 130 inches? Plus climate seems cooler at its elevation. Looks like snow pack retention is really good?)

 

I look forward to reading responses.  

 

First off, Welcome. 

I wonder if you’ve considered Syracuse or Fulton? I’m not sure what you do;  will you need to be in close proximity to a university or big company? Or can you work from home? 

Like the others have said, Tug is the king for big snow. Followed by the S Buf towns others have mentioned. Watertown doesn’t do very well. The lakeshore near Rochester averages just over 100”. Syr is near 130”, I believe. You could easily double that on the Tug. The area north of Redfield is amazing. Look up Carolyn Yerdon on Twitter, she lives 6-8 miles N of Redfield and gets like 300”/ Year. 

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

First off, Welcome. 

I wonder if you’ve considered Syracuse or Fulton? I’m not sure what you do;  will you need to be in close proximity to a university or big company? Or can you work from home? 

Like the others have said, Tug is the king for big snow. Followed by the S Buf towns others have mentioned. Watertown doesn’t do very well. The lakeshore near Rochester averages just over 100”. Syr is near 130”, I believe. You could easily double that on the Tug. The area north of Redfield is amazing. Look up Carolyn Yerdon on Twitter, she lives 6-8 miles N of Redfield and gets like 300”/ Year. 

Thanks for the greeting, Dave. I have looked at Fulton and Oswego,  but can't find many jobs. They also seem to have big thaws in much of Oswego county. I am applying for Agricultural Educator positions, as well as Children's Ministry positions at churches. Some day my wife and I hope to own a bed and breakfast.

So, currently, I need to be somewhat close to a place that has some job opportunities. I also don't want to commute longer than 20 minutes to work. I want to live close to where I work, which is why it's a bit of a bummer that the Tug doesn't offer much opportunities. I feel like Lowville would be the best option, as I could live 10 minutes west and get tons of snow (if I could even find a house!) or perhaps down near Turin or Highmarket, which aren't far away.

Morrisville looks appealing because of its cooler climate and higher elevation....but I can't seem to find much on the climate for there. Probably because it is a pretty rural area. The rural character of Madison County is also very appealing. I hate Suburbia and have no desire to live in suburbs.

8 hours ago, winter_rules said:

I don’t think there is any question that Tug Hill is your best bet for snow retention based on the options you mentioned.  Draw a line from Lowville to Adams (i.e. NYS Rte 177) and stay south of that for the best snow retention.  Also run a line north/south about 5 miles east of and parallel to I-81and stay east of that line.  There won’t be as many housing options and you have to think about the reality of clearing significant snow nearly daily (and multiple times on many days) before you commit 100%.  It sounds cool but you need to truly think about the time, effort, and cost involved.  There is also a landfill in Rodman that can result in an unpleasant odor in that small area in the summer.  Carthage and Copenhagen areas are good options for commuting to Watertown or Lowville, but they will lose their snow much quicker than just a few miles due south.  It doesn’t seem like they would when driving around but it is a significant difference every single year.  Could also look to live farther south between Lorraine and Orwell and commute to Watertown.  

Outside of snow, Lowville is a nice small town which I like a lot, but can be considered “depressing” to some depending on your experience and preferences.  Watertown is much more robust with many more options for entertainment and employment.  Fort Drum is the main economic factor in the area and that affects all of the northern Tug Hill area.  Pulaski is a nice area about halfway between Watertown and Syracuse.  I used to live about 5 miles east of Pulaski and commuted to Syracuse.  Still miss all that snow but we visit regularly.  

Thank you so much for your detailed info and wisdom. I have thought often over the past year about how much of an impact 300 inches of snow a winter would have on normal daily life. You have excellent points with that. It could be hard on my wife, which I definitely do not want. So probably somewhere just outside of the Primary snow belt, but close enough to often cash in and get great amounts of snow. It is amazing how much less snow Lowville seems to get than just west of there. I know it is in a valley, so that can greatly affect it. I also didn't realize Copenhagen lost its snow that much faster. So even though it has some elevation, that 500 feet less than some of the other parts of the Tug makes a big difference it appears. Your post is extremely helpful!

Have any info on the Cazenovia/Morrisville/Hamilton area? It seems like since it is a microclimate, there isn't much info. available on the local climate there. I have found several things that seem to agree that Morrisville also gets around 130 inches...and have found a few "old weather forecasts" that discuss the "higher elevations of Southern Onondaga and Madison Counties getting the heaviest snow."

[coh]

1 hour ago, southbuffalowx said:

I am graduating this spring and will most likely be moving down to NYC this summer for work. The next 6 weeks will probably be my last shot at real winter for several years, but it's not looking too promising. 

 

I swear if next winter ends up being the next big LES event in the metro, and I'm away, I'll be pretty upset, since I was stuck in Amherst in 2014. 25" of snow per winter, after getting used to seeing single storms dump that will be difficult to get used to lol. 

That will definitely be an adjustment, especially if you've always lived up here. I grew up on Long Island during the snow drought that was the 1970s, I don't think there was a single storm of 12" or more from 1970 to 1977, and that included the infamous 2.8" winter of 72-73. Every storm, no matter how big it was predicted to be, seemed to turn into the standard "1-3 inches followed by sleet and rain, and then a flash freeze." Countless mornings waking up to that horrible pinging on the window...fortunately 1978 (New England blizzard, 24") and 1979 (Presidents Day storm, 12"+ and completely unpredicted) helped lessen the sting, and there have actually been quite a number of decent storms during the past 15-20 years.

There are some positives...you'll actually see the sun a fair bit during the November to March period, and I find that always lifts the spirits. And...you'll be in NYC, so there will always be something to do to take your mind off the fact that it isn't snowing!

[Syrmax]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Get out the shorts 

We Gon Fry.

[winter_rules]

53 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Thanks for the greeting, Dave. I have looked at Fulton and Oswego,  but can't find many jobs. They also seem to have big thaws in much of Oswego county. I am applying for Agricultural Educator positions, as well as Children's Ministry positions at churches. Some day my wife and I hope to own a bed and breakfast.

So, currently, I need to be somewhat close to a place that has some job opportunities. I also don't want to commute longer than 20 minutes to work. I want to live close to where I work, which is why it's a bit of a bummer that the Tug doesn't offer much opportunities. I feel like Lowville would be the best option, as I could live 10 minutes west and get tons of snow (if I could even find a house!) or perhaps down near Turin or Highmarket, which aren't far away.

Morrisville looks appealing because of its cooler climate and higher elevation....but I can't seem to find much on the climate for there. Probably because it is a pretty rural area. The rural character of Madison County is also very appealing. I hate Suburbia and have no desire to live in suburbs.

Thank you so much for your detailed info and wisdom. I have thought often over the past year about how much of an impact 300 inches of snow a winter would have on normal daily life. You have excellent points with that. It could be hard on my wife, which I definitely do not want. So probably somewhere just outside of the Primary snow belt, but close enough to often cash in and get great amounts of snow. It is amazing how much less snow Lowville seems to get than just west of there. I know it is in a valley, so that can greatly affect it. I also didn't realize Copenhagen lost its snow that much faster. So even though it has some elevation, that 500 feet less than some of the other parts of the Tug makes a big difference it appears. Your post is extremely helpful!

Have any info on the Cazenovia/Morrisville/Hamilton area? It seems like since it is a microclimate, there isn't much info. available on the local climate there. I have found several things that seem to agree that Morrisville also gets around 130 inches...and have found a few "old weather forecasts" that discuss the "higher elevations of Southern Onondaga and Madison Counties getting the heaviest snow."

We frequent Turin and all the areas around there and I would use NYS Rte 26 as the eastern boundary of the deeper “Tug Hill snowpack.”  NYS Rte 12 is always the lowest snowpack at any given time, and then steadily increasing snowpack as you head east from Rte 12 toward, say, Stillwater, Brantingham, and Forestport.  

The greater Morrisville area is a relatively good snow area for being south of the Thruway (I-90), but it’s a whole different animal than Tug Hill or the Adirondacks.  Not really comparing “apples to apples.”  There will be plenty of times in most winters when you will have nearly bare ground in that area.  

Something to ask yourself is if you are looking for white ground most of the winter or a consistently deep snowpack?  If just white ground with occassional deep snowpack, then most of Oswego County would come into play....maybe stay at least +/-5 miles away from Lake Ontario to help improve the odds?  My brother lives just east of Palermo and he seems to be white for 95+% of each winter.  The NE corner of Oswego County certainly qualifies for deep snowpack - generally NE of NYS Rte 13. It’s funny that I keep naming state roads as boundaries.  It seems too convenient but it really is true. 

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, coh said:

That will definitely be an adjustment, especially if you've always lived up here. I grew up on Long Island during the snow drought that was the 1970s, I don't think there was a single storm of 12" or more from 1970 to 1977, and that included the infamous 2.8" winter of 72-73. Every storm, no matter how big it was predicted to be, seemed to turn into the standard "1-3 inches followed by sleet and rain, and then a flash freeze." Countless mornings waking up to that horrible pinging on the window...fortunately 1978 (New England blizzard, 24") and 1979 (Presidents Day storm, 12"+ and completely unpredicted) helped lessen the sting, and there have actually been quite a number of decent storms during the past 15-20 years.

There are some positives...you'll actually see the sun a fair bit during the November to March period, and I find that always lifts the spirits. And...you'll be in NYC, so there will always be something to do to take your mind off the fact that it isn't snowing!

I remember 72-73 winter, living in NNJ.  Agree that was a winter of constant disappointment. We had a snow day from school and ended up with like 3" of snow in a cold storm (for there), which was most of what we got that winter...Friends and I spent day outside walking around the neighboring towns making our own fun anyway. (Something kids don't do any more without triggering an Amber Alert).  Then we moved to SE VA but expectations were lower.  Still had a few good storms though.  I was also in SE CT for the mid/late 80s and 90s...which generally sucked for snow (other than 93/94 and 95/96).  Now, there are "blizzards" every winter down there.

And yeah it is sunnier with no lake clouds. And milder temps on avg.

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

We frequent Turin and all the areas around there and I would use NYS Rte 26 as the eastern boundary of the deeper “Tug Hill snowpack.”  NYS Rte 12 is always the lowest snowpack at any given time, and then steadily increasing snowpack as you head east from Rte 12 toward, say, Stillwater, Brantingham, and Forestport.  

The greater Morrisville area is a relatively good snow area for being south of the Thruway (I-90), but it’s a whole different animal than Tug Hill or the Adirondacks.  Not really comparing “apples to apples.”  There will be plenty of times in most winters when you will have nearly bare ground in that area.  

Something to ask yourself is if you are looking for white ground most of the winter or a consistently deep snowpack?  If just white ground with occassional deep snowpack, then most of Oswego County would come into play....maybe stay at least +/-5 miles away from Lake Ontario to help improve the odds?  My brother lives just east of Palermo and he seems to be white for 95+% of each winter.  The NE corner of Oswego County certainly qualifies for deep snowpack - generally NE of NYS Rte 13. It’s funny that I keep naming state roads as boundaries.  It seems too convenient but it really is true. 

Ha! It seems to work well. Many highways are built along topographic features...so weather often seems to change along them. Regardless, I need to GET the job first. It would be so amazing to have several job offers to choose from so I could CHOOSE which place to live in. Ha! Back to reality...