lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Microscopic flakes. I forgot what a real snowflake looks like. Yeah it’s literally like it’s raining snow grains the flakes are so tiny, and that park with constant thunder snow and almost waist deep snow was just epic. I’m ready for spring after this “snow” event and can’t wait until next winter as you said the extreme lake effect events we get in November and December just can’t be compared against. If history is correct we should see a blockbuster sometime next season with a major lake effect event coming every 4-5 (2001,2006,2010,2014) so now it should be 18-19 if the pattern continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Snowfall rate has increased significantly here as has flake size. Starting to accumulate on my deck and that’s on the sunny side of my house in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Snowfall rate has increased significantly here as has flake size. Starting to accumulate on my deck and that’s on the sunny side of my house in the afternoon. Flake size still sh!t in Syracuse proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Moderate snow in the ROC the last few hours. Starting to accumulate on roads. I expect that WWA will be expanded a county East this afternoon. Regardless, it's just nice to have snow in the air all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Flake size still sh!t in Syracuse proper. Not exactly parachutes but much better than this morning. Those were the smallest flakes you can possibly have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 For those interested on snow ratios and what goes into determining p-type and flake size, the below link is a good read. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjG4ceJxJnZAhVj2oMKHdRmCo8QFjAAegQIExAB&usg=AOvVaw2wkHSTnhTCijafRyP3BXU9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 What's funny is every storm has had decent rates, but when it comes to ratios every one of them has been horrific. Right now it's snowing probably if rates were better easily three quarters of an inch per hour if not an inch an hour but it's pixie dust. So aggravatingSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Been snowing for about 3-4hrs here and have only got a dusting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I was at half an inch about a half hour ago. Mediocre I know but more than a dusting. Still coming down steadily, probably about 1 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I just saw this: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 225 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 NYZ006>008-100330- /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0051.180210T0000Z-180211T0000Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 225 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Funny (sad?) that per BUF radar the heaviest snow has been falling all afternoon in NYS south of where the advisories are posted. Picking up last half hour here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Funny (sad?) that per BUF radar the heaviest snow has been falling all afternoon in NYS south of where the advisories are posted. Picking up last half hour here though... Glad I’m not the only one who noticed this, I was just going to post this but you already did lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I think I actually posted it a few pages back that the returns were Way South of where they should have been or should be shall I saySent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 They must have hired their summer interns way early this year because something is definitely off in that office I don't care what anybody saysSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Wasn't it you Max who posted about the rates or ratios today would be great compared to what they were with Friday's excuse me Wednesday and Thursday's event or am I thinking something different? You actually took an excerpt from either binghamton's or Buffalo's afternoon discussion and posted it, now I remember.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Snowing quite heavily in Cortland County, a county that was supposed to get 1 to 2 in and the band that is affecting them right now is dropping that within an hour or twoSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Looks like northtowns are getting crushed now and it looks to stay that way for a while and I can tell from Buffalo south is going to lose the snow for quite a while while Niagara County gets hit all night long. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Easy 1"/hr here for about the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Same. Really accumulating...up to about 3" on the day...radar looks good for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Same. Really accumulating...up to about 3" on the day...radar looks good for the next few hours. 2.6" here for today with nothing at all on radar for several more hours...yawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 We're going to be getting into some pretty hefty returns real soon CNY WXSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We're going to be getting into some pretty hefty returns real soon CNY WX Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I see on radar that there’s heavier returns moving towards us. 1.25 inches as of 6. What’s interesting is the time cast on channel 9 has the edge of the dryslot moving right up to the Onondaga/Oswego county border. We’ll see where it sets up. Could have a big impact on our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Still snowing moderately in Williamsville about 4 1/2" for the day and if guess we will be between the 6 to 8 inch range by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Only 2.8" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Its actually been snowing at a pretty good clip here in So. Oswego County for the past couple hrs, and the heavier returns seem to be backbuilding so the next few hrs we'll at least see an 1" to perhaps 2". Hoping 6-8" by morning, as that would be perfect for the existing WWA. I'm not liking the last wave as it looks to bring with it some much warmer air. I haven't looked at any guidance today but nothing was posted so I figure nothing has changed, as far as precip type is concerned,as we could possibly see the whole kitchen sink thrown at us with this last event. Snow, freezing rain, and sleet will be seen throughout the day Sunday, into the evening hrs perhaps before turning into plain liquid then ending with a little snow for a period. The million dollar question is where exactly this stalled front sets up as 50-100 miles can make all the difference in the world, so lets keep our fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 We have quite a bit of frontogenesis going on overhead with this front thats meandering through the area but it creating some nice additional lift throughout the area. We also still have quite a bit of Thermal Advection at both H850 and H700. H700 Also, surface frontogenesis is quite nice especially out in WNY but it should make its way over this way as well. You can clearly see where the front is as there's a sourtherly flow up to about just South of KSYR but then they go ESE. This happens then length of the thruway from KSYR to KBUF and beyond back through OH and IN. All nice stuff that should allow the light, to a times, moderate snow to continue to fall throughout the night. Whats ultimately going to be our demise is both the H700 and H850 temp advection regime's as they should continue to advect warmer air into the area throughout the day tomorrow, allowing the temp to eclipse the freezing mark, and we all know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 If this is even close to being right an coming to fruition then from about 04Z through 08Z we can see some nice rates with a substantial jump in flake size as the snow growth region, albeit shallow, doos bisect the highest Omega values and RH so we'll see how things are lookin from 11pm through 3AM a 5 hr period where rates can exceed 1"/hr. I'm just reading what I'm lookin at and this is being forecasted by the RAP model. NAM same time for comparison sake. GFS, HRRR at 06Z is the coldest at 26F They all look quite similar with the GFS and the HRRR probably drop the heaviest snow for that specific time frame but their temp profiles are much much different with the GFS being above freezing while the HRRR is at 26F! The NAMN and RAP are also in the upper 20's so that tells me that the GFS temp is wrong but it may be the only right one, lol! So it'll be interesting to see where the temps end up at 006Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I'm trying to figure out why the radar looks so anemic with patches of heavier returns moving through with no real precip shield. There's plenty of moisture, plenty of lift with a stalled out front just to our South which should be enhancing the snowfall but it just doesn't wanna, lol! perfect temps in the upper 20's and we still can't get a decent snowfall, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm trying to figure out why the radar looks so anemic with patches of heavier returns moving through with no real precip shield. There's plenty of moisture, plenty of lift with a stalled out front just to our South which should be enhancing the snowfall but it just doesn't wanna, lol! perfect temps in the upper 20's and we still can't get a decent snowfall, lol. I've been trying to figure this out all day. What a fricken bust here, what a joke there even a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Snowing pretty good at the moment, looks like a good couple inches is down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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