Stash Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 7 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: I think you're safe....or maybe a brief mix...I see you topping out at 7-9" by 10pm. Spot on LEK. Very brief sleet/freezing drizzle as the precip lightened late afternoon, before flipping back to a burst of heavy snow to close the show. Finished with a little over 8". Maybe not a classic SWFE, but fit within the standard 8-11" that usually comes with one here in ENY. Sadly, it's still the largest storm of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Pretty crazy amount of ice on the lakes this year. I bet Superior never really thaws. Will probably have ice chunks left in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Landed up with only 3.8" here. Barely advisory criteria but at least it brings me over 90" for the season and very close to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Binghamton broke its all time snow record last year and Erie broke it this year. Erie actually has a good shot at 200". If Buffalo can get some good LES events in Nov/Dec they can get a 200" season too. Buffalos lake effect bands is just so much stronger than Eries but tough to get the right wind direction. 2001 had a chance but the rest of winter was terrible compared to that week of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 That’s a lot of Lake ice. Remember a couple of Febs ago (the hideously cold PV 2.0 month) when even Lake Ontario got close to 90% covered for a while? That was something. It would be nice if KBGM did a post mortem on this storm and explain why snow totals were lower than forecast in CNY as model qpf wasn’t that far off. I think one possible explanation was the UVV/DGZ issue Ty and I discussed but I’m also wondering if some mid level warmth nosed in...I didn’t see that modeled but maybe I missed it. KALB did have a brief flip to ZR and/or IP. But here in CNY, we never were threatened with mixed precipitation, and dendrite size remained on the small side, which I think was the problem as ratios were sub 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Ended up with about 6" here. Snow growth was not all that great, especially toward afternoon as temps warmed toward the U20s. When the rates slowed down, the flakes were almost like pellets. Fairly dense consistency to the accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Binghamton broke its all time snow record last year and Erie broke it this year. Erie actually has a good shot at 200". If Buffalo can get some good LES events in Nov/Dec they can get a 200" season too. Buffalos lake effect bands is just so much stronger than Eries but tough to get the right wind direction. 2001 had a chance but the rest of winter was terrible compared to that week of LES. While buffalo is not rivaled by any area without the aide of orographic lift, it has been quite difficult to get a band to lock over the metro for more than a few hours...if an intense band locked over the metro and nearby northtowns for more than 6 hours it would affect almost 600k people more than any one area in WNY or NY state for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: While buffalo is not rivaled by any area without the aide of orographic lift, it has been quite difficult to get a band to lock over the metro for more than a few hours...if an intense band locked over the metro and nearby northtowns for more than 6 hours it would affect almost 600k people more than any one area in WNY or NY state for that matter. 2014 affected close to that. Roughly 400k people. South Buffalo out to East Aurora to Hamburg New York are very populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Absolute white out right now, gigantic flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: Ended up with about 6" here. Snow growth was not all that great, especially toward afternoon as temps warmed toward the U20s. When the rates slowed down, the flakes were almost like pellets. Fairly dense consistency to the accumulation. Same here as far as dense consistency, probably due to a lot of plates and fewer larger dendrites. I couldnt find a real time sounding that showed the upper air for KBGM or KSYR but in looking back at the 00Z NAM sounding from last night, I dont see a problem other than highest UVVs were just under the DGZ, which was deep enough from top to bottom ~100mb and the column was plenty moist. I didn't see evidence of a mid level warm nose so thinking that was the issue in CNY as more snow plates would be produced at a temp of -6C to -8C, just below DGZ, which correlates to a ratio of 8 or 9:1 using a chart I haven't posted. I think I've answered my own question. And that is why Clown maps often don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Missed it watching Netflix. Picked up 2" here, looks like it's moved thru.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Getting crushed in Irondequoit. 2” last 45 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4” fresh since midnight. 25:1 ratio. Bringing our 24 hr to 8-9”. One way to verify a WSW is to do it hours after it’s been cancelled. Although BUF did mention possibility in their disco. So I shouldn’t be hard on them. Most offices busted with this last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I'm thinking a nice 3-6 perhaps 4-8" this morning from the band that's now affecting Monroe and Wayne counties. This band should continue to slowly move NE throughout today reaching the SLV by this evening so no huge totals on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Got an additional easy 4-5" as a quasi meso-low came through and snowed hard for a couple hrs straight with hugh aggregates that accumulated big time so up to 10.5" for the event, 6.5 Synoptic-4" fake snow, nice event. I don't think this mornings LES event should be included in yesterdays event IMO so I won't be adding It as this will be a separate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I’m thinking next event will be more on advisory level just because of duration. If it fell quickly it may be warning criteria but the fact that this event will likley last 2 days with 5-9” possible over two days will likley land us an advisory not that it matters to me, I’ll gladly take it and it may be just enough to get me to 100” on the season which I haven’t seen (since I was in RI for a few years and then last years winter was a bust) since the winter of 2013-2014... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2.5" overnight...was snowing a bit at my house but it's coming down pretty good downtown Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Stole this from a NE thread, so props to them. It's a Clown map but interesting from a CMC standpoint. Edit: I haven't seen any model that doesn't show ptype issues for CNY and WNY so you can probably take the below values and divide by at least 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Gennessee Valley looks to struggle withdownsloping again. Can’t even see any oragraphic difference from a plane but it costs us dearly in any Precip event with a SW flow. Cut those CMC values by 80%. Roc looking at a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 With the 12z GFS,CMC, and NAM showing between .6-.7” QPF at KBUF from tomorrow through Sunday, I would feel confident for an area wide 5-10” in the WNY counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 In CNY we are going to need to keep an eye on p-type issues this weekend starting Saturday morning. 12Z NAM puts 850 temperatures above freezing while GFS literally brings the 0C line to Onondaga county for a while. Fortunately when we’re above freezing we’re also dry slotting. WNY may fare better but I don’t see any big amounts of snow for me. Hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Tomorrow’s event looks like mostly if not all snow according to the majority of models, it’s also the most potent.. Rgem by Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Well at least we won't be fighting ratios Friday into Saturday, per KBGM's current AFD. Not much UVV but a deep DGZ. Snow will shift further north to mainly Finger Lakes-NY Thruway corridor late in the day, and even north of that by later Friday night. Even though liquid-equivalent of precipitation will not be terribly heavy, one look at thermal profiles reveals that as moistening occurs, temperatures will become nearly isothermal at dendritic growth temperatures for a very thick layer of roughly 10 thousand feet. For at least the front end of incoming snow late morning through mid afternoon Friday, this should easily promote snow-to-liquid ratios of 20-to-1 if not even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Euro for tomorrow is 0.3”-0.4” for the most part, little less in and around the finger lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro for tomorrow is 0.3”-0.4” for the most part, little less in and around the finger lakes.. That will catch some people napping with ratios KBGM mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Of note, yesterday's 5.1" snowfall put KSYR over the century mark at 101" for the season. Other upstate city stations from NWS CDUS41 daily Climo reports today: KROC 78" and KBUF 75" KBGM 40" and KALB 33" It's unfortunate there isn't snowfall monitoring at KART, Watertown...only temp and precip. It would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 New NAM drops 1-1.25" of QPF over Erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 If lake Erie wasn't frozen Metro Buffalo would be getting lake snow warning event and then the synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 KBGM forecast thru Sat morning. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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