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Upstate/Eastern New York


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I picked up 5".  Right back to winter...

Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
751 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Allegany County...
   Alfred                 2.9   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   Whitesville            2.0   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   Wellsville             1.0   500 AM  1/30  HADS

...Chautauqua County...
   4 ENE Jamestown        4.6   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   Silver Creek           4.2   600 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   1 SSE Silver Creek     4.2   600 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   1 WNW Fredonia         4.2   500 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   1 S Dunkirk            2.9   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Erie County...
   1 SSE Eden             6.7   700 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   Buffalo Airport        4.4   654 AM  1/30  NWS Office
   2 E Elma Center        4.3   645 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   1 W Lakeville          3.8   650 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Genesee County...
   1 W Batavia            4.0   600 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   Pavilion 2             4.0   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   1 E Le Roy             2.0   715 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Lewis County...
   1 E Osceola            0.5   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Monroe County...
   Rochester Airport      2.7   654 AM  1/30  ASOS
   2 SSE North Chili      2.6   600 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   2 NE Honeoye Falls     2.0   605 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS

...Niagara County...
   2 NE Youngstown        4.5   710 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Orleans County...
   2 NW Albion            4.0   630 AM  1/30  CoCoRaHS
   Medina                 3.4   600 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Oswego County...
   Fulton                 1.1   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer

...Wyoming County...
   3 W Wyoming            4.2   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
   Warsaw                 3.5   700 AM  1/30  HADS
   3 N Silver Springs     2.9   700 AM  1/30  Co-Op Observer
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This pattern the clippers have more energy from the Pacific then the pattern in December had. Quite a bit more moisture and some of these will over perform. Lansing Michigan had 13" from that clipper yesterday, forecast was 1-2". Passed 100" on the year here, so much better than the last 2 winters were even though we still got some good LES events the last 2 seasons. 

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On 1/29/2018 at 11:04 PM, rochesterdave said:

Frustrating how it’s so reluctant to get into Rochester region. Glad the Buf folks are getting hit!

We ended up with about 4.5” in NE Buffalo. Not really a “congrats BUF” event, and definitely not enough for anyone who missed it to be justifiably frustrated, but enough to add to the totals in hopes that we might not have be crawling towards yet another dramatically BN season.

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12 minutes ago, WNash said:

We ended up with about 4.5” in NE Buffalo. Not really a “congrats BUF” event, and definitely not enough for anyone who missed it to be justifiably frustrated, but enough to add to the totals in hopes that we might not have be crawling towards yet another dramatically BN season.

We are above average at KBUF so far this season. The upcoming pattern says we finish above 100" or so.

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A lot going on in the med-long range, that’s for sure..Guess I’ll have to take it one step at a time..

Kbuf

The arctic cold front will then charge across our forecast area between
22-02z...basically for the end of the evening rush hour and during
dinner time. This boundary...while somewhat limited in moisture...will
be quite dynamic. Strong H925-70 frontogenetic forcing and low level
convergence will produced a burst of moderately heavy snow with its
passage. This could result in some travel difficulties during those
several hours...even though total snow accumulations are not expected
to be more than a couple inches.

 

While the semblance of a dry slot will work across our region in the
wake of the arctic front...plummeting H85 temperatures will set the
stage for some lake effect snow. Initially...the lack of synoptic
moisture and some leftover low level shear will limit the lake
response...but as we progress through the night...the deepening cold
air (H85 to -20c) will encourage an increasingly favorable thermal
profile for organized lake snows southeast of both lakes. This will
especially be the case southeast of Lake Ontario where an near open
lake will also have the assistance of priming from multiple upstream
lakes. The key to obtaining significant snowfall/rates will be some
reinforcing synoptic moisture...so this will have to be watched in
later forecast guidance.
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13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

ROC officially ended up with over 6” for last event. Overperformed. It took a while to get started but enhancement gave us the boost it always does with North winds.

Perfect moderate event. Fun to watch but didn’t trigger my weather insanity button. 

Yeah this part of winter is usually boring for me. Nickel and dime snowfalls are just not my fav. I enjoy big LES events, and that is pretty much impossible at this point with the lake frozen. 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Wut up with 12z GFS for this Monday? Anyone buying or is this another GooFuS attempt?

Also, had almost an inch overnight, which got me to 5" for this past Clipper/LE event.

That storm has come west for almost 5 runs in a row.  NWS in Buffalo completely wrote it off in there latest disco but I wouldnt count it out yet.  Getting a little better phasing and some negative tilting with each run.  I have my fingers crossed big time as I'll be in Lake Placid From Sunday to Thursday.  It would be a game changer for my trip. 

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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Wut up with 12z GFS for this Monday? Anyone buying or is this another GooFuS attempt?

Also, had almost an inch overnight, which got me to 5" for this past Clipper/LE event.

It looks legit IMO. GFS has performed best last few months. Also the GEFS are all much farther NW than OP run with them being much stronger with more QPF. I think Upstate has a good shot at a decent snowstorm, especially Rochester East. 

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