CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Was gonna post the exact same thing but I'm throwing it right out the window. That much of a change within 18 hrs of start time is a bit to drastic if ya ask me but perhaps its caught on to something, but I seriously doubt it, unless we see something worthy that backs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Models in pretty good alignment, not much to argue here...looks like 5-10" for CNY, low end Warning other than up east of late Ontario and in the hills where it's a no brainer 8-12". WNY 4-8" marginal Warning. Do we really care if an Advisory or Warning gets issued? Will that change the amount that falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 With such differences between the NAM and GFS they may have to wait until tonight’s model runs to hoist warnings or advisories, unless they go with whatever camp the Euro sides with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 That GFS is UGLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS is the outlier unless it has caught on to something and the rest of the guidance hasn't. I guess we'll see as the GFS has been on fire as of late so perhaps its on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I bet Pikes Peak of the east, Worcester Mass gets a foot out of this, lol. The SNE crew has tossed the NAM but of course are all over the GFS, lol, bunch of wishcasting snowflakes over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Everyone but NAM has backed off NW accumulations. Last minute weakness. Typical of progressive pattern. Still a 4-8” thing. It will be fun to watch. SE fingerlakes look to be maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Everyone but NAM has backed off NW accumulations. Last minute weakness. Typical of progressive pattern. Still a 4-8” thing. It will be fun to watch. SE fingerlakes look to be maxima. Nickel and Dimes. Bring me back to the nirvana that was the first 2 weeks of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I bet Pikes Peak of the east, Worcester Mass gets a foot out of this, lol. The SNE crew has tossed the NAM but of course are all over the GFS, lol, bunch of wishcasting snowflakes over there. Just toss whatever model looks bad for snow in your area. Easy peasy. And to be fair, the Pikes Peak of the east is actually a bit south of KORH, in NE CT, where the "pack" is only rivaled by that on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm starting to think that some extreme blocking may start to come into play the end of Feb into March before things start to relax but not before a wild ride. There's definitely a SSW occurring right now and it can bring the pain big time and if it comes to fruition. We can be in for some end to Winter if it happens and its a big if. The PV at both 30MB and 50MB is forecasted to split the next week or so but it doesn't always make it to the troposphere so we'll see if this one can. Last one was 13-14 when one occurred around the same time as this one is but may be different outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Just toss whatever model looks bad for snow in your area. Easy peasy. And to be fair, the Pikes Peak of the east is actually a bit south of KORH, in NE CT, where the "pack" is only rivaled by that on the Tug. Yes, Mt Tolland, you are correct sir, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Splits at 30MB Splits at the 10MB 50MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Watch the NAO go negative for the whole month of March, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Watch the NAO go negative for the whole month of March, lol! 17 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm starting to think that some extreme blocking may start to come into play the end of Feb into March before things start to relax but not before a wild ride. There's definitely a SSW occurring right now and it can bring the pain big time and if it comes to fruition. We can be in for some end to Winter if it happens and its a big if. The PV at both 30MB and 50MB is forecasted to split the next week or so but it doesn't always make it to the troposphere so we'll see if this one can. Last one was 13-14 when one occurred around the same time as this one is but may be different outcomes. Don't SSW have a lag time of 6-8 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don't SSW have a lag time of 6-8 weeks? Yeah, 4-6 weeks if ya wanna get real technical but 6-8 will work as well and they all vary as far as effects are concerned. Large correlation with the -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 UKIE blast the area, especially tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: UKIE blast the area, especially tug. Is the EURO similar? Wolfie you around? I cancelled mu Sub for WB after the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 EURO QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Yesterday channel 9 weather had 5-10" for most of CNY now they dropped it down to 3-7" higher amounts east. Be lucky if i see 2" at my house lol. Was hoping for more since i just got a new 4 wheeler with plow on it lol. Wanted to see how well it will plow more than 3-4" of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM looks shredded too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Kbuf just posted a winter storm warning for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 NYZ006>008-070400- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.180207T1100Z-180208T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.180207T0900Z-180208T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180206T2300Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 255 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches are expected in the lake effect snow band through early this evening. Total snow accumulations from late tonight through Wednesday night of 7 to 11 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the Winter Storm Warning, from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Advisories just as I thought. 4-8” in the advisory areas which as of the latest runs may be too high. Bring em down! 3-5” max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Warning for Roc. IDK what they are smoking!? I gotta read the newest disco. Even the NAM has reduced to 3-4”.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gotta say this was pretty cool a few minutes ago. SpaceX Falcon Heavy side boosters landing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 ENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 333 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-055-056-072045- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0002.180207T1100Z-180208T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0003.180207T0900Z-180208T0300Z/ Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome- Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, Waverly, and Binghamton 333 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland, Chenango, Otsego, Tioga, and Broome Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. Steady snow is first expected to develop between 7 and 8 AM. The heaviest snowfall rates, at times 1 to 2 inches per hour, should occur between roughly 9 AM and 5 PM. Snow should end during the evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Boys the model output is rarely ever correct. Hugging them is futile. 4 5 6 7 inches not a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Gotta say this was pretty cool a few minutes ago. SpaceX Falcon Heavy side boosters landing. The entire launch was pretty cool. To think a private company could nail the launch of a new, powerful rocket on the first try is exciting. This can open up all kinds of possibilities in space exploration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The entire launch was pretty cool. To think a private company could nail the launch of a new, powerful rocket on the first try is exciting. This can open up all kinds of possibilities in space exploration. Agree. We were all watching it at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Revracer800 said: Yesterday channel 9 weather had 5-10" for most of CNY now they dropped it down to 3-7" higher amounts east. Be lucky if i see 2" at my house lol. Was hoping for more since i just got a new 4 wheeler with plow on it lol. Wanted to see how well it will plow more than 3-4" of snow lol. I just watched the channel 9 forecast on the 4 o’clock news and they’re still calling for 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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