wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Moderate snow falling currently, hrrr has about 0.15” with this event, could yield a few inches with this fuff factor..Flake size a bit small though, could prevent it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6z nam (top) 3k nam (bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 About 1" down, decent flake size. I hate when I forget to use the garage for my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1.5” of new snow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Not sure why they lowered amounts especially considering they were touting ratios, most models still showing 0.5”-0.70 of precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Right around 2” here as of 7 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1.9" at 7am in Williamsville...appears to be some lake enhancement/lake effect over northern Erie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 KBUF is so inconsistent that I don't even read their discussions anymore. I stick with KBGM as there are professionals writing the discussions and not Spring interns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not sure why they lowered amounts especially considering they were touting ratios, most models still showing 0.5”-0.70 of precipitation.. Why are you surprised ? That’s what they do every single time lol. By this afternoon they’ll issue warnings but drop totals further on their maps. Also very petty but why is Monroe county under a watch when their map shows half the county at 4-6” and half the county at 6-8” with no 8-12” but yet even S Erie county is mostly 6-8” with a little pocket of 8-12” but yet no watch, doesn’t make sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gfs is pretty far north. 2.1” overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 There is no way KBGM is hoisting any warnings after what I just saw on the 06Z GFS. Its barely advisory lvl stuff, lol. Their waiting on 1 more model run before they make any decisions. What can possibly change within 6 hrs that could impact a forecast that much, seriously. Hoist Advisories already and if it turns out to be a warning, so be it, but no way whats showing constitutes any warnings anywhere but perhaps the Dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 RGEM advisory totals except for the hills. Looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Warning criteria is 7” in 12hrs (6” for some), this is a short duration storm lol Would be borderline I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GGEM Their all pretty much in the slot of 6-10" area wide so I don't know what both offices will do this afternoon. I guess it doesn't matter as we know its gonna snow and that's good enough for us as we'll worry about totals when the event is all said and done, plus we have a little LES to contend with. Looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Not having a -NAO is both hurting us and helping us at the same time. If there was one, they'd slow get stronger and most likely phase much more efficiently but on the other hand they would get strong enough to promote mixing and perhaps straight rain as the mean Jet flow is to our West. So not having one is a blessing in disguise, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 It looks like it came a tick or to to the SE because it seems as though the models are missing the potential for LE as some could be heavy throughout the afternoon hrs as winds go WNW then W as the secondary takes over and moves to the NE quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 KWRT is getting absolutely crushed right now with at least 3-4"/hr rates at times. Pulaski is also getting hit quite hard from a separate band and this is why the Tug will be the big winner this week because of the consistent LE they'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Upper level energy is also lacking big time and this shows it quite nicely. Nice surface and mid lvl energy with an almost flat look to the H500 lvl. We can never win one can we? Whenever something comes through that can be somewhat substantial there's always a few variables missing to make it a memorable one unfortunately! I do however think all the ingredients come together for a complete all out blockbuster before this season is over and perhaps it happens in the volatile month of March cause it's gonna be a memorable one, IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 SREF 9z printing out a respectable 5-9” for KROC. Reasonable. This is a high confidence forecast. No weirdness with this one. Might be a bit juicier than currently being shown. 1/2” le should equate to 8”. Just inside warning criteria. Pull the trigger already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 39 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: KWRT is getting absolutely crushed right now with at least 3-4"/hr rates at times. Pulaski is also getting hit quite hard from a separate band and this is why the Tug will be the big winner this week because of the consistent LE they'll see. Not moving much either, so jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12Z NAM comes in much more jucier for areas to the East of lets say Sodus Pt with areas to the West of there getting .50 QPF which is still a respectable 6-8" but areas to the east it .80" and above with the TUG obviously being the top winners. !2z also removed that horrific area of downsloping for the Finger lakes so that's good news as well. My guess is, KBUF holds off on warnings West of Wayne perhaps including Wayne and Warnings East of there but that's just the NAM but we're within 24, so it should bear some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I truly wonder when the city and nearby northtowns will get a turn at a 1985 scenario again... Has been far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Definitely a super fast mover or else we'd all be easily in the 8-12" range but not this time folks. This thing starts tomorrow morning and is outta here by 00Z so a quick thump and see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 How do you see the Kuchera ratios on Tropical Tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I truly wonder when the city and nearby northtowns will get a turn at a 1985 scenario again... Has been far too long. 1985 actually hit the southtowns harder than the northtowns. But it was a total Erie County hit. Unconfirmed reports of 47" in Southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 12Z NAM comes in much more jucier for areas to the East of lets say Sodus Pt with areas to the West of there getting .50 QPF which is still a respectable 6-8" but areas to the east it .80" and above with the TUG obviously being the top winners. !2z also removed that horrific area of downsloping for the Finger lakes so that's good news as well. My guess is, KBUF holds off on warnings West of Wayne perhaps including Wayne and Warnings East of there but that's just the NAM but we're within 24, so it should bear some weight. I’d guess Monroe to Cattaraugus county east is Warnings, West is advisories, just as the watches are right now. Warnings for 6-10” for most but 8-16” for Oswego,Jefferson, Lewis (highest amounts on the Tug) and advisories of 4-7” for Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Erie and Chautauqua counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I’d guess Monroe to Cattaraugus county east is Warnings, West is advisories, just as the watches are right now. Warnings for 6-10” for most but 8-16” for Oswego,Jefferson, Lewis (highest amounts on the Tug) and advisories of 4-7” for Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Erie and Chautauqua counties... Should be quick hitting so I think WSW for all would be advised after latest runs a tad NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS looks SE and quite a bit less QPF. Last minute bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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