CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 CoCoRaHS reports coming in of 17 inches in Boonville and 15.1 inches in Warrensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 That storm really was impressive for oragraphically opportune areas. Namely the S Adks. Likely will end up much bigger than the next one for those areas. For the Thruway corridor, this next event looks to be a classic 3-6” deal with Syr and Eastern Finger Lakes getting more like 5-10”. Wild cards? Lake enhancement. A NW tick? If we could get an earlier phase with a bit more deepening.. I don’t see a bust unless you live NW Niagara Falls or Toronto- they are on the fence. Pretty high confidence forecast. It’ll be interesting to see where BUF places warnings. I bet Livingston, Wyoming and Ontario (plus ski country) get Warnings while Erie-Wayne get advisories. Gotta watch that enhancement. Might be good for 2-4” extra placing Roc into warning amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Chance of a few inches around the area tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z GFS looks a tad more NW and a bit more robust...also snow accumulations have gone up for WNY on that run out 240 hours...looking very active to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 A little lake effect is firing up on it’s way to the north. Probably won’t amount to anything but there should be flakes in the air this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Another consistent hit on the Euro for Wednesday. Should see watches being posted this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks like Binghamton to Albany is the jackpot zone on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxNoob said: Looks like Binghamton to Albany is the jackpot zone on this one. I think ENY will do better than CNY in this one. Across CNY, the QPF distribution looks fairly uniform in the .5-.75 range with areas further n/w in the lesser end of the range but likely having better ratios to offset. Looks like area-wide 6-10 across CNY, maybe some 11-12" lollipops in high hills E of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just read the latest AFD from KBUF with their wording I'm curious why a WSW hasn't been hoisted for all of WNY and CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 WSW has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just read the latest AFD from KBUF with their wording I'm curious why a WSW hasn't been hoisted for all of WNY and CNY. Because they only expect 4-7” across far WNY including BUF which is only advisory criteria. I agree with their decision and think that we won’t see warning amounts (7” in 12 hours or less, or 9” in 24 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Because they only expect 4-7” across far WNY including BUF which is only advisory criteria. I agree with their decision and think that we won’t see warning amounts (7” in 12 hours or less, or 9” in 24 hours). Yeah WNY will do better in the storm system this weekend while ENY does better with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah WNY will do better in the storm system this weekend while ENY does better with this one. Should I parse words??? Their exact wording was " at LEAST high end Advisory accumulations"...i guess meaning they feel that is the low mark and could be higher which is exactly why you'd put a WSW in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Well, BUF surprised me with WSW for Monroe and Wayne. I didn’t expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Great write-up from BUF. Looks like the Tug is the sweet spot right now for the BUF forecast area. ...Significant widespread snow likely on Wednesday... This period will start off innocent enough...as high pressure will be centered over the Lower Great Lakes. Speaking of which... subsidence associated with this sfc based ridge will put a serious cap on the nuisance lake snows east of Lake Ontario. Will only have chc pops for Oswego County and the Tug Hill (esp southern slopes) during the first half of the night...as a lowering cap under 5k ft will work with backing winds to the south to bring an end to the mesoscale activity. Then the `fun` begins. An inverted trough over the Upper Ohio Valley Tuesday evening will extend to the northeast across the Lower Great Lakes during the wee hours of the morning...while the surface high will exit across the St Lawrence Valley. This will allow the low level flow to back around to the south...thereby initiating the warm advection process. At the same time...an intensifying 150kt H25 jet will position itself over southernmost Ontario. The lift offered by this jet and strengthening frontogenetic forcing will allow light snow to streak into our region from the west by daybreak...with an inch or so accumulation possible over parts of the Southern Tier. On Wednesday...a series of waves within the aforementioned inverted trough will consolidate into an organized surface low in the vcnty of southeast Pennsylvania...as a robust shortwave digging across the Upper Great Lakes will encourage a phasing of the sub tropical and polar jets. The described track of the organizing sfc low will maintain a fairly tight H925-H7 gradient over our forecast area... and this will provide an excellent surface for slightly milder air to overrun. The ensuing frontogenetic forcing will then combine with the lift from being under the right rear entrance region of the H25 jet to provide a relatively short 8-12 hour period of strong lift. There is high confidence that this will support at LEAST advisory criteria snow across our region Wednesday and Wednesday evening... with 18 hour snowfall amounts ranging from roughly 4 to 7 inches over the Niagara Frontier and near Lake Erie...to as much as 12 inches across the North Country. The highest values east of Lake Ontario will also likely be attributed to an exceptionally deep dendritic growth zone (10-15k ft) being forecast. For what its worth...typically values average closer to 5k ft...so VERY efficient snow making should be anticipated for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I like this afternoon staff. Let’s see if the overnight tempers it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Entrance region is a term they consistently use that nobody understands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Entrance region is a term they consistently use that nobody understands. I understand it...basically additional lift under the 'right' entrance region of the jetmax due to the vertical circulation. Left exit is the other 'lift' area. A nice image to explain - Check out the rising air in the right entrance and left exit regions of the jetmax. Opposite is true for the left entrance/right exit. According to KBUF, we'll be in the vicinity of the right entrance - benefiting from additional lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah WNY will do better in the storm system this weekend while ENY does better with this one. Next Weekend looks wet for CNY/ENY w/o some model adjustments to the right. Which seem to be happening a lot this winter with our fabulous +NAO regime. So WNY prob in good shape as of now. Unless the CMC verifies, in which case it'll be PC and chilly everywhere upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Entrance region is a term they consistently use that nobody understands. When upper level winds speed up moving into a jet maxima it's draws in air from the lower levels. As vortmax inked above, it also creates a circulation that favors the Right entrance and left exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Im glad you guys understand it. It sounds good to me. I just hope it snows balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: When upper level winds speed up moving into a jet maxima it's draws in air from the lower levels. As vortmax inked above, it also creates a circulation that favors the Right entrance and left exit Yeah, as a power plant engineer I sometimes envision the effect as functioning a bit like an air ejector on a condenser...or more like cracking open the window in your car while moving....the jet of air rushing past the car creates a low pressure that draws air out of the vehicle in one spot (which is replaced in another location to maintain a control volume mass balance). These are crude analogies mind you but sorta work to help visualize the effect, although with a jet streak the air motion is more vertical than horizontal out the car window as the jet streak is up in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Must be some good ratios with most models only showing about 1/2” LE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 k nam keeps this band over s Oswego co for about 5 hrs which would be a record for this year, granted in a weakened state but still a few inches of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 SREFS are way north. Just goes to show you how terrible of a model they are. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_15z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Plumes for ksyr, seems many more above the mean compared to its previous run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 i'm pretty sure, as we continue to get closer to go time, each successive run should be a bit more juiced as I don;t think the models are handling the amount of moisture available with this system. It gets help from both the GOM, and the Atlantic, so I really wouldn't be surprised if they go up a few more 1/10's before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 00z NAM qpf LE for Wed: KSYR 0.57" KBGM 0.75" KALB 0.71" KROC 0.49" KBUF 0.42" Looks pretty uniform. KBGM will be on doorstep of taint with mid level temps @700 & 850 mb getting to -1.6C...should squeak it out w/ minimal PL mix though, per NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 NAM has pretty wicked dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM has pretty wicked dry slot. That's not a traditional dryslot associated with mature cyclones but yeah, a nice precip hole until the incoming northern stream gets involved with the southern stream and fills in to a nice precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.