BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 So after a 2 week thaw we look to get back into a more wintry look. February has been getting quite a bit of hype from the long range models. Will it come to fruition? The truly cold air has been getting pushed back farther and farther in the long range guidance. In general, the models have been absolutely terrible beyond 3-4 days. We have a couple shots of snow this week. Temps look to average slightly below average with a brief warmup on Weds/Thurs with highs in the mid/upper 30s. Let's take it one event at a time. Tomorrow/Tuesday look good for the western areas, 3-5". GFS came in a little wetter with this system. We all should see some decent chances over the next few weeks of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 New pic of Lake Erie shows it can add quite a bit of moisture to any event the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 Some of the higher res guidance for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 We look to be near the dividing line of the SE ridge, typical La Nina conditions. This should feature some decent chances at synoptic snow, not as much in the way of lake effect, but definitely lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS Analogs. It's a good look. Winter is not over. I'd wager that February has above normal snowfall everywhere in Upstate quite easily. Seeing as I am going away in mid March, I am going to enjoy every bit winter has to offer next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I’ll be going away at the end of February for a week to Florida so you know they’ll be a Double Whopper with extra cheese while I’m away. In all seriousness though it definitely looks like a return to winter for the foreseeable future. Lake Erie at 60% ice cover will allow for some lake enhancement at times as you mentioned but with how cold it will be getting it will likley be back above 90% ice cover as quickly as it melted down. At least the next few weeks will bring us closer to our seasonal averages as I only need about 15-20” for the rest of the year to hit average so an average season should certainly be attainable even though most of it fell in a 6 week period from early December to mid January. If we can somehow receive above average snowfall for February and March we should finish well above average for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Great post Buffalo. I appreciate all of the info you put together. Let's get this thing back on track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Yes, great post and a good look for synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 It's still basically a clipper pattern with a greater chance of stronger synoptic systems then the pattern we had in December. Usually these patterns result in frequent light to moderate events than any big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I definitely believe the area in about 1 week from today will have a decent 6 to 10 inches on the ground from the next 3 systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Winter weather advisory's now up for all of WNY. Reading reports from Upper MW/GL's thread that this has over-produced for their area so far. Let's see if that translates our way. Latest on this from BUF: Conditions will then deteriorate across western New York later this afternoon and especially tonight. Upper level trough level across the upper Midwest/Upper Great lakes will sharpen as it pushes eastward through tonight. Models depicting an 80-100 knot jet streak lifting up the east side of the trough into tonight. Height falls associated with this system will lead to weak cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley with a well defined inverted low level trough extending into the region. This system now showing a notably stronger low-mid level forcing signal than what previous models suggested. Forecast soundings more favorable in the depiction of saturation within the majority of the -10C to -20C degree layer and with lift within this region notable stronger. Therefore we now anticipate higher snowfall totals for a portion of the area. Best forcing, and therefore most of the widespread light snow is expected to develop across far western New York by mid to late afternoon with the greater intensity snow likely from 23z to 08z. Although a wild card remains in the respect to a developing northerly upslope and lake enhanced snow potential very late tonight and on into Tuesday which could boost amounts. At this point, most of western New York should see at least a couple inches of snow, with higher amounts focused on the higher elevations south and east of Buffalo with a general 3 to 5 inches. A winter weather advisory as outlined below will be issued to cover this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This clipper takes an ideal track but loses some strength to the OTS LP. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some decent totals south of Ontario west of Wayne County. Talking 5” or so. As BUF puts it, “the wild card”, is enhancement with a northerly component. It’s overperformed in parts of Lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: This clipper takes an ideal track but loses some strength to the OTS LP. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some decent totals south of Ontario west of Wayne County. Talking 5” or so. As BUF puts it, “the wild card”, is enhancement with a northerly component. It’s overperformed in parts of Lower MI. Oddly I think this underperforms...the bulk of the snow is being eroded away by the east northeast winds and not a lot showing on radar left. Any other sides of the coin??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Oddly I think this underperforms...the bulk of the snow is being eroded away by the east northeast winds and not a lot showing on radar left. Any other sides of the coin??? IDK...radar looks pretty solid to me over the border in Ontario right now. If anything, potential for higher totals seems to continue moving north, closer to Lake Ontario (when the day started, only southern Erie County to PA was in WWA area). If we get some extra juice from L. Ontario as this spins thru I can see an overachiever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 WNY is gonna get a nice little event tonight, congrats all the way East to Monroe cty but I'm afraid we get left out as dry air from the NE beats down whatever tries to form. Downsloping off the tug won't help much either. We may get into some true LE Late Tues-Wed on WNW winds that may drop a few inches, but if not we'll have to wait till Thurs-Fri for some replenishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I still think tonight underachieves...don't like the way the north wind is eroding the snow...2 to 4 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I still think tonight underachieves...don't like the way the north wind is eroding the snow...2 to 4 at best 2-4 would be an overachiever in my book! Haha. Coating to 2” is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Moderate snow here, closing in on 2” OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looks like the cutoff might be a bit further west than expected. Northern Erie and Niagara doing well. Monroe east is just drying up. Latest meso models picking up on it too. Hope we saturate soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 I think it looks pretty good on radar. KBUF will get 5-6" total with that nice band about to move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Heavy snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I still think tonight underachieves...don't like the way the north wind is eroding the snow...2 to 4 at best You sure? It's only a little after 10 pm and only been snowing for a little over an hour and can't even see the grass anymore with +S right now and to me radar looks great. If anything I think this looks perfect for a quick 3-6" just as the NWS called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Frustrating how it’s so reluctant to get into Rochester region. Glad the Buf folks are getting hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 2.4" as of midnight. Very small flakes that are not good at accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looks like about 3.5-4” here just eyeballing it. A little less than I thought I’d see when I woke up this morning but still right in the NWS 3-6” forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3.9 as of 5:30 in Williamsville, will probably get to 4 1/2" or so with SN- for a bit longer. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Accumulating nicely here as we got off to a late start, only about 1/2”-3/4” so far, flake size is better then I expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3/4 inch here at 7. Coming down at a good rate but flake size is less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 4.3” total here. Nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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