BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:40 PM, CNY-WXFREAK said: I think KALB is getting shadowed by the berks and the Catskills get intense upslope conditions and thats where I think 20" totals will be most likely. Expand Yep, few 30” Lollies In Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:40 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Best dynamics are over wny. No lake enhancement with this one. Expand March sun angle will also be an issue after dark for ROC. o:O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9z sref for Kroc right on the 15” mark. Dropped the low ones. Also dumped the 3 footer. I was sad to see it go. Non voyage 3 footer! Until next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My guess: Buf- 13 Roc- 15 Bristol- 25 Syr 16 Fulton- 13 Irondequoit- 11 Bing 9 NYC 3 Alb 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z nam is really far south. This fu..er has been maddening. I’m tired of it. 12”-3” in Monroe country south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:53 PM, WesterlyWx said: My guess: Buf- 13 Roc- 15 Bristol- 25 Syr 16 Fulton- 13 Irondequoit- 11 Bing 9 NYC 3 Alb 10 Expand Interesting call on Bristol as I also think they could be a real hot spot in this event. 2200 feet will serve them well. I've been lurking hard this week as I prepare for a trip to New Zealand... I'm flying out Sunday. Hoping flights arent delayed or backed up. Anyway, I don't usually add much around here but the prep for this has really gobbled up my time. Anyway, looks like a hell of an event with a near perfect storm track, just wish it was 5 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That March 2014 storm that brought 14 inches to Buffalo keeps showing up as an analog, which seems like a good optimistic number. Unfortunately I have a flight at 12:30pm tomorrow. I haven't had any issues getting out of BUF in minor storms, but can anyone hazard a guess about lunchtime tomorrow? They clear the runways quickly and the plane is coming from Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:06 PM, DeltaT13 said: Interesting call on Bristol as I also think they could be a real hot spot in this event. 2200 feet will serve them well. I've been lurking hard this week as I prepare for a trip to New Zealand... I'm flying out Sunday. Hoping flights arent delayed or backed up. Anyway, I don't usually add much around here but the prep for this has really gobbled up my time. Anyway, looks like a hell of an event with a near perfect storm track, just wish it was 5 degrees colder. Expand Have fun in New Zealand, always wanted to go there. Is it for vacation or work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:08 PM, WNash said: That March 2014 storm that brought 14 inches to Buffalo keeps showing up as an analog, which seems like a good optimistic number. Unfortunately I have a flight at 12:30pm tomorrow. I haven't had any issues getting out of BUF in minor storms, but can anyone hazard a guess about lunchtime tomorrow? They clear the runways quickly and the plane is coming from Florida. Expand Should be fine by then, but may be backed up from tonight/early tomorrow flights delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:05 PM, rochesterdave said: 12z nam is really far south. This fu..er has been maddening. I’m tired of it. 12”-3” in Monroe country south to north. Expand It’s now cast time. Storm is literally at our door step already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:11 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Should be fine by then, but may be backed up from tonight/early tomorrow flights delays. Expand Yeah, I love the wx response team at BUF. We have way less volume than the big east coast airports, so crews can clear empty runways fast, but they still impress me with how quickly they can get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3k nam gonna skunk Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:06 PM, DeltaT13 said: I've been lurking hard this week as I prepare for a trip to New Zealand... I'm flying out Sunday. Expand Awesome. Are you going to both islands? I'm jealous, a friend went recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:11 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Have fun in New Zealand, always wanted to go there. Is it for vacation or work? Expand It's a boys only vacation that has been somewhat in the works for years. I have a friend who moved there about 10 years ago as a travel writer (he basically does all the touristy things and writes about them, how nice is that!). So we are flying in an he is taking care of the rest. We spend a few days on the North Island then 5 days on the South Island. We are doing Piha beach, gloworm caves, Tongariro Alpine crossing, hiking a volcano, hiking a glacier, Millford Sound, Bungee jumping. It's going to be a wild ride. I hope I'm ready for it. I can't say I'm excited about the 13 hour flight from LA to Auckland....I can't even fathom how I'll survive that long on a plane. Anyway, I'll post some pics when I get back. Now back to the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:27 PM, DeltaT13 said: It's a boys only vacation that has been somewhat in the works for years. I have a friend who moved there about 10 years ago as a travel writer (he basically does all the touristy things and writes about them, how nice is that!). So we are flying in an he is taking care of the rest. We spend a few days on the North Island then 5 days on the South Island. We are doing Piha beach, gloworm caves, Tongariro Alpine crossing, hiking a volcano, hiking a glacier, Millford Sound, Bungee jumping. It's going to be a wild ride. I hope I'm ready for it. I can't say I'm excited about the 13 hour flight from LA to Auckland....I can't even fathom how I'll survive that long on a plane. Anyway, I'll post some pics when I get back. Now back to the storm! Expand Travel writer, how do I get into that field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ok the radar echoes look very impressive already and the LP is just winding up...heavy rain returns right at the northern edge of the precip shield with very northern extents already snow in lower Michigan...this storm will not disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Delta, you suck. That trip sounds incredible! Great posts everyone on this storm. The snow maps have been entertaining to say the least. Let’s get this show started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone concerned with the southerly LP trend? Getting a little nervous on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yup, especially since the euro has trended south several runs in a row, now the nam products followed but not nearly as bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Central PA track... anyone have good pressure fall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Verbatim Gfs almost identical to last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ask and you shall receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 3:55 PM, rochesterdave said: Ask and you shall receive Expand Nice to see a more SW-to-NE orientation to the falls. This thing may end up further north than the models are progging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Majority of 12z Guidance has about 5”-10” here, which is right where the nws has us , anything extra is a bonus..Maybe 10”-15” in SW NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Juicy looking system. The only limiting factor now is probably the northern cutoff of precipitation. It’s sharp. It’s pretty well advertised and has shrunk south a bit. Everything is in place. The terrain from Buf to Penn Yan are a lock. NWS disco dropping most of their elevation talk and saying some areas might just start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yea, maybe start as a little light rain but should flip pretty quick even if Surface is slightly about freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z RGEM looks south and more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It’s not bad, pretty much double digits for many, of course it’s continues to show the “donut hole “ that only the ggem shows lol Hi Rez Canadian/arw/nmm all have 1”-1.5” liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Did the entire radar network just drop out? Hell of a time for that. Hopefully just a computer glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yeah I’m right in the middle of that hole. Warm air holds on for longer and system scoots east too quick. Definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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