CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 12:02 AM, wolfie09 said: Yea wx freak , if this is worst case scenario I’ll take it lol Just a nudge north would be sufficient.. Expand Yeah, after I analyzed it a bit closer it became apparent to me that the NAM wasn't such a bad scenario, lol, and if that was the worse case scenario, then so be it. It's def not going any further South that's for sure so I think tonight's 00Z should put the nail in the coffin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Even the snow is BS with temps in the upper 30s.. Euro KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro shows more snow accumulation for nyc then it does Boston.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm going with 2-4" for Toronto. Hoping for the best, and hoping that the NAM is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 12:39 AM, wolfie09 said: Euro shows more snow accumulation for nyc then it does Boston.. Expand SNE is gonna have crappy surface temps and a raging mid level off the Atlantic. Gonna be hard to make snow until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The Nam should correct back North at 00Z and if itr doesn't then we toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:00 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: The Nam should correct back North at 00Z and if itr doesn't then we toss! Expand Shouldn't we just toss any model run we don't like? I think that strategy is used elsewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 12:59 AM, Syrmax said: SNE is gonna have crappy surface temps and a raging mid level off the Atlantic. Gonna be hard to make snow until late in the game. Expand Well you better go tell them that, cause apparently a raging blizzard is imminent all across SNE, especially the hills in and around KORH and the BERKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I don't know how it snows with temps in the mid 30's with a screaming Low Level Jet out of the ESE straight off the ATL in KBOS. I mean, it is late in the season, but the water off the coast all across the area is way way AN, so IDK what their thinking especially with 12 pro Mets analyzing every model run, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:02 AM, Syrmax said: Shouldn't we just toss any model run we don't like? I think that strategy is used elsewhere... Expand I saw the New England posters praising the NAM 2 days ago when it was showing 2-3' for them at 84 hours, now that it shows nothing they say it's a garbage model. I'm glad we don't have that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:02 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well you better go tell them that, cause apparently a raging blizzard is imminent all across SNE, especially the hills in and around KORH and the BERKS. Expand It will only snow above 1000' feet anywhere within 50 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Tonights suite should answer a lot of questions but I sure hope we see some convergence in all globals since we are within 24hrs of go time no? Its also quite apparent that NWS still aren't all that confident as no watches were upgraded but I wasn't expecting any upgrades until at least tonight or even with tomorrows 12Z run. Remember, its the wintry part of the system thats the hard part, as always, and thats what the adv-war are for, not the rain that precedes the changeover, so I understand the hesitation from both offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It was funny, the other forum jumped 10 pages after the NAM dropped. It had been stagnant for days. Haha. We do the same thing. We busy tossing it- they busy hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:18 AM, BuffaloWeather said: It will only snow above 1000' feet anywhere within 50 miles of the coast. Expand Yeah will be tough unless something different than what is shown evolves. Which I don't rule out. I still remember March 2001 down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:32 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tonights suite should answer a lot of questions but I sure hope we see some convergence in all globals since we are within 24hrs of go time no? Its also quite apparent that NWS still aren't all that confident as no watches were upgraded but I wasn't expecting any upgrades until at least tonight or even with tomorrows 12Z run. Remember, its the wintry part of the system thats the hard part, as always, and thats what the adv-war are for, not the rain that precedes the changeover, so I understand the hesitation from both offices. Expand Yeah HRRR is basically in range too. It's a little bit more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:18 AM, BuffaloWeather said: It will only snow above 1000' feet anywhere within 50 miles of the coast. Expand I'm pretty sure KBOS somehow manages to see some accumulating snow during the next 2 weeks especially with a -NAO. I'm expecting the storm track to actually be suppressed big time the next couple weeks and tbh, we're real lucky that this system is happening during a change to a -NAO and not the other way from - to + cause them we'd by high and dry while watching the MA get pounded, which should happen at least once, within the next few weeks, I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:37 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm pretty sure KBOS somehow manages to see some accumulating snow during the next 2 weeks especially with a -NAO. I'm expecting the storm track to actually be suppressed big time the next couple weeks and tbh, we're real lucky that this system is happening during a change to a -NAO and not the other way from - to + cause them we'd by high and dry while watching the MA get pounded, which should happen at least once, within the next few weeks, I'd imagine. Expand Yeah there is a huge signal for big storm in middle of March along east coast. I think it targets mid atlantic/NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:32 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tonights suite should answer a lot of questions but I sure hope we see some convergence in all globals since we are within 24hrs of go time no? Its also quite apparent that NWS still aren't all that confident as no watches were upgraded but I wasn't expecting any upgrades until at least tonight or even with tomorrows 12Z run. Remember, its the wintry part of the system thats the hard part, as always, and thats what the adv-war are for, not the rain that precedes the changeover, so I understand the hesitation from both offices. Expand Agree and I don't blame them. Wouldn't totally shock me if we end up with a slushy few inches. But 00Z should give some more confidence. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:38 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah there is a huge signal for big storm in middle of March along east coast. I think it targets mid atlantic/NYC though. Expand This is it. Winter cancel after saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:39 AM, Syrmax said: Agree and I don't blame them. Wouldn't totally shock me if we end up with a slushy few inches. But 00Z should give some more confidence. Maybe. Expand Would also not shock me in the least if this gets a bit more suppressed as well, as that -NAO is no joke, so we'll see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:43 AM, Syrmax said: This is it. Winter cancel after saturday. Expand Highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:46 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Highly unlikely. Expand I get it. Just saying. I want my milkshake and nothing for anyone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 0z NAM is more amped- further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:54 AM, rochesterdave said: 0z NAM is more amped- further North. Expand Its out to 9hrs on the NWS site?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Its definitely colder that's for sure but it's only out to 12hrs so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Out to 18. Looks like 12z so far. Tidbits site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Definitely further North by about 200 miles or so and much more amped, out to 21hr, pivitol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:02 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Further suppressed than the 18Z so far, lol, lots of smiles are going to turn to frowns real soon, lol! Expand What the heck are you guys looking at? I’m looking at hour 24 on the 00z and it’s definitley more amped than hour 30 of the 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:05 AM, WesterlyWx said: What the heck are you guys looking at? I’m looking at hour 24 on the 00z and it’s definitley more amped than hour 30 of the 18z... Expand Dude! I agree. Just like 12z. Freak is having a laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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