AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On medium range models right now. It looks like +PNA but is really a very large ridge, in the middle is the Polar Vortex. The western US, Rockies could realistically see +20 to +30 departures during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I can't speak for the whole West, but the records where I am in February are in the 70s, early Feb: low 70s, late Feb: high 70s. With the air so dry, for so long, and such persistent high pressure that is pretty difficult to achieve as the lows recently have been falling to 15-25F. Even with our big diurnal ranges you very rarely see more than +35F increases from morning low to afternoon high, +25 to +30 is more typical. We had a low of 24F today for instance, but it was only 56F, so that's a -3F departure for the low to +7F for the day. You really need lows in the upper 30s or above for records here in the winter. I'd expect some days in the 60s, with lows around 32F before we cool off when the MJO gets to phase 8 or 1. Areas of TX/OK places immediately downwind of the SW mountains can see absurd heat, even in February, close to 100F if conditions warranted. Places in Oklahoma (near sea level) were around 100F on Feb 12 2017 when we were in the mid-70s (at 5,300 feet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Records most likely in southern AZ and south-central CA, further north and east there will be some mixing in of cooler air masses moving southeast from Canadian prairies to plains states. In about a week could see some spring-like conditions in Pac NW and southwest BC also. Huge contrasts in snow cover this month, perhaps not that unusual, but 2-3' of snow in Cascades, snow-free either side of that range (extending into southernmost parts of BC including the south Okanagan valley). Another peak in snowfall over the Monashee range in south central BC but not snow-free in next valley east, about 3-6" on the ground there. The recent temperature trend has been near normal in the inter-mountain valleys to about +4F on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Super warm pattern coming up, maybe similar to March 2012. If so, and now, do you wonder about Summer ice melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 March 2012 wasn't terrible down here. I'm actually fairly high on March for the SW for a pattern change. Years that started Feb in phase 6 or 7 at high amplitude have my attention, I crossed through years that died out quickly though. 2012, 2010, 2006, 2005, 1999, 1993, 1990, 1989, 1986, 1981, 1978. The blend of the years above kind of looks like March 1935, which I kind of like too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Here you go I'm interested in waves here because of topography it's a good area to see global max The heat wave also has 3-4 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Its a fairly normal intense heat wave here. Certainly top five for us so far, for Feb 1-5, but still 2-3F below records for the dates. High was only 55F or so today, so will be diminishing in intensity from 2/6 on. You've been talking a lot about unusual patterns - but there are unusual natural events. Look at the Nina thread - Nino 1.2 was the coldest in January since 1981. That's a horrible outcome for the West. 1980-81 was incredibly hot in Dec-Jan in the West, and a non-terrible match nationally. The dryness nationally this winter is really much more extreme than the heat/cold, and I'd attribute that to Nino 1.2, which seems to correlate to STJ moisture levels. I had to convert it to inches and degrees Fahrenheit, but this is kind of what Dec-Jan looked like against 1981-2010. Talking about extremes, its fairly similar to some of the Dustbowl winters. I look at departures for highs and precipitation against 1951-2010, so my verification maps for my outlook will look different. The "Very Dry" area is locally 6"+ below normal, much worse than their +3F or whatever temperature reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 It's impressive because it's a stagnant ridge. Many times it will be driven by PNA or Arctic regions. This is North Pacific High flex, which may be correlated to Arctic Ice melt. It also could have been much more impressive by how things looked 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 It was ok out west. This is actually really impressive cold, bad forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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