Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 It's 65 at ORD. A couple of interesting things about that... It would've been a new record high for the date if it were not for the 70 degree high on February 20, 2017. Also, this is the first time that Chicago has had 65+ degree highs on the same day in February in consecutive years... in other words, it's never reached 65+ on consecutive February 20ths or any other day in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, wxman_ind said: Indy sets its all time February record high, with 77 degrees (as of ~2PM Feb 20)! Beating the record February temp of 76 set in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: It's 65 at ORD. A couple of interesting things about that... It would've been a new record high for the date if it were not for the 70 degree high on February 20, 2017. Also, this is the first time that Chicago has had 65+ degree highs on the same day in February in consecutive years... in other words, it's never reached 65+ on consecutive February 20ths or any other day in February. Looks like 65 was this high. Had the first 60F DP of the year as well around the same time as that high temp. Also hit 60F yesterday, prior to midnight last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, wxman_ind said: Indy sets its all time February record high, with 77 degrees (as of ~2PM Feb 20)! And it feels wonderful, doesn't it? Just hope the rains are not too torrential for us in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 IND is running a tremendous +36 departure for the day with that high of 77 and a low of 62. It may not quite hold up though depending on exactly when the front comes through, but it should be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I'm actually pretty impressed with the ZR potential over a swath of central or northern Ohio and perhaps eastern Indiana tomorrow night into Thursday. There are several factors arguing for heavy precip, such as the right-exit quad of a 180kt+ jet streak over the region, a deep layer of isentropic lift, the nose of a strong low to mid-level jet (50kt+ at 850mb and 65kt+ at 700mb) north of the Ohio River, PWATs around +3SD above normal south of the surface boundary, and some elevated CAPE along and south of the Ohio River possibly allowing for some convective elements. The surface high positioning is nearly ideal, with 1040mb or a bit stronger expected to slide east across the northern lakes in concert with the window of best precip. This should allow good low-level cold to seep south, and this will be aided by dry air in the low-levels advecting in, allowing ongoing evaporational cooling during the precip to try to offset the latent heat release by the ZR freezing onto surfaces. Obvious questions regarding exact QPF, as the GFS and low-res NAM have a much sharper northern cutoff than the rest of the models (the GFS is pretty dry overall). Given the factors favoring robust QPF, and the Euro, its ensembles, the hi-res NAM, the RGEM, the GGEM, and to a decent extent the UKMET having more QPF...and trends if anything over the last two days worth of runs being slightly farther north with the QPF...I'm inclined to lean that direction, but the strong high gives me some pause in going 100% with a wetter solution. Given the strong high and cold/dry air advecting in, I am definitely inclined to lean towards the colder guidance. With potentially heavier rates there will likely be some runoff, so accretion may not be extremely efficient...though the colder models do have temps in the upper 20s with profiles that support mainly ZR as opposed to IP/SN, which could offset the heavy rates a bit. Given some question over accretion rate and QPF, I don't want to fully buy the 3km NAM and RGEM with their 0.5-1" of QPF of ZR yet, but I still think that accounting for varying uncertainties still yields potential for a swath of over 0.25" of ice accretion Wednesday night into Thursday morning...with some potential for more. There may be a narrow band of accumulating snow on the northerm edge of all this if the wetter guidance plays out. With warm temps through early tomorrow, it'll be interesting to see what kind of road impacts there are...they may take some time to develop on surface roads, and may not develop in areas where it's 31-32 degrees (though bridges and elevated surfaces may be a different story), but areas that are more than a little below freezing may eventually see icy conditions even on surface roads. Definitely a complicated setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Awesome contrast across the sub today. 70s for the IN/OH peeps, and 20s in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Pittsburgh made it to 78 breaking their all time February record as well today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Toledo breaks nearly 90-year old record high. Note: my place in Colorado was 67 degrees on Sunday. It's sometimes interesting how above normal temps in northern Colorado are a precursor to above normal temps in IN/OH if the warm air mass travels across the country. Quote AT 459 PM EST, THE TEMPERATURE AT TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPORT REACHED 69 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY, WHICH WAS 66 DEGREES SET IN 1930. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: Pittsburgh made it to 78 breaking their all time February record as well today. 77 degrees in Dansville New York today. Buffalo hit 66 degrees. The first day of warmth we get around here is when my first itch for summer starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Down to 24 here as things continue to dry out. The precip shut off as temps went below freezing, so zero issues with ice here. The brisk winds dried off paved areas before freezing temps could do much with residual moisture left over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 The Canadian suite is fairly bullish with precip surging back north tomorrow night... even into parts of central IL/northern IN. It's sort of alone to that extent but other guidance isn't terribly far behind. Might have to keep an eye out for a little creeper event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Might have some decent wind potential if that surface low bombs as advertised, especially on Saturday night into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 82 in Newark, NJ today lol, I couldn’t imagine feeling that warmth in February. Anyway rest of the month looks pretty mild here, first week of March looking average to slighter warmer than average, bulk of the cold stays out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 After a couple of inches of snow early this morning, skies cleared and a beautiful day unfolded. High of 22, but the Feb sun overcame the chill enough to enjoy being outside all day. Down to 6 already tonight... weekend system looks interesting. The warmth south and east of here for February is incredible, but nothing surprises me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Interesting past few weather days here and some interesting ones ahead. Monday morning woke up to freezing drizzle which transitioned into sleet and eventually snow, we received just under an inch of snow during the day, and then went back over to freezing mist. Overnight into Tuesday another quick inch of snow fell to create headaches for the commute. Looking ahead a solid 2-4 seems like a good bet tomorrow evening across much of the state. The storm system over the weekend has also caught my attention, sub 1000MB low cutting through Iowa and Wisconsin could bring some double digit totals to a wide swath of the state. I'll be up north in Lutsen this weekend and the conditions look suburb especially with good chances 6"+ snow over the next 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: After a couple of inches of snow early this morning, skies cleared and a beautiful day unfolded. High of 22, but the Feb sun overcame the chill enough to enjoy being outside all day. Down to 6 already tonight... weekend system looks interesting. The warmth south and east of here for February is incredible, but nothing surprises me anymore. You just escaped it, and I mean just lol. One week ago there was more snow on the ground in Detroit then pretty much anywhere in northern Michigan north of Flint until you got well into the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Might have some decent wind potential if that surface low bombs as advertised, especially on Saturday night into Sunday. 00z NAM bombs it 25 mb in only 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Ended up with more of a flash freeze last night than with the system a month or two back. Spotty glaze on most surfaces and puddles/areas of standing water were frozen over this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 The wind fields are pretty nuts on the NAM. There is a period there with 65-70 kts at the top of the mixed layer in the LOT cwa. GFS is not quite as impressive. If a NAM like solution were to verify, there would easily be a window of high wind warning criteria winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Had a pretty serious ice jam on the Rock the next town up river from here earlier today (Prophetstown). Kind of a concern since if an ice jam were bad enough this town could be impacted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Ripping beautiful fluffy dendrites under a 30db band currently. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Overachiever here. MSP reporting 5.6" of new snow this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 0.11" of rain early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Wet snow falling this morning... continues to pile up. Heaviest snow this weekend looks to fall in the far west UP where there's well over 40" otg in spots already. A lot of winter left, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Very nice weatherbo! Maybe one of these winters you'll see snow up to the top of the stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 0.19" of rain here overnight, boosting my February total to 3.15". I'd like to see the ground thaw out. Even last night's little rainfall caused more pooling on the patio/yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 3 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Very nice weatherbo! Maybe one of these winters you'll see snow up to the top of the stick. You never know! I’ve seen it 8” from the top at 52”. 34” has been my peak this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: I'm optimistic that we will top the 50 inch mark in Calumet on Sunday. Somewhere between 45-50 inches on the ground now -- and another 6-10 inches looks possible tomorrow night into Sunday. Wilma!! Yeah, looks good up there this weekend. Take pics! Should cross the 40” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 22 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: I'm optimistic that we will top the 50 inch mark in Calumet on Sunday. Somewhere between 45-50 inches on the ground now -- and another 6-10 inches looks possible tomorrow night into Sunday. Great to hear - mainly due to excessive snowfall? Or very few thaws? Or higher-than-normal water content? Or combination of all? I thought you'd have less than 45-50" on the ground, since it seems like regular snows haven't occurred much after the initial LE onslaught in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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