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February 2018 Discussion


Frog Town

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It's 65 at ORD.  A couple of interesting things about that...

It would've been a new record high for the date if it were not for the 70 degree high on February 20, 2017.  Also, this is the first time that Chicago has had 65+ degree highs on the same day in February in consecutive years... in other words, it's never reached 65+ on consecutive February 20ths or any other day in February.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's 65 at ORD.  A couple of interesting things about that...

It would've been a new record high for the date if it were not for the 70 degree high on February 20, 2017.  Also, this is the first time that Chicago has had 65+ degree highs on the same day in February in consecutive years... in other words, it's never reached 65+ on consecutive February 20ths or any other day in February.

Looks like 65 was this high. Had the first 60F DP of the year as well around the same time as that high temp.

Also hit 60F yesterday, prior to midnight last night.

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I'm actually pretty impressed with the ZR potential over a swath of central or northern Ohio and perhaps eastern Indiana tomorrow night into Thursday.

There are several factors arguing for heavy precip, such as the right-exit quad of a 180kt+ jet streak over the region, a deep layer of isentropic lift, the nose of a strong low to mid-level jet (50kt+ at 850mb and 65kt+ at 700mb) north of the Ohio River, PWATs around +3SD above normal south of the surface boundary, and some elevated CAPE along and south of the Ohio River possibly allowing for some convective elements.  The surface high positioning is nearly ideal, with 1040mb or a bit stronger expected to slide east across the northern lakes in concert with the window of best precip.  This should allow good low-level cold to seep south, and this will be aided by dry air in the low-levels advecting in, allowing ongoing evaporational cooling during the precip to try to offset the latent heat release by the ZR freezing onto surfaces. 

Obvious questions regarding exact QPF, as the GFS and low-res NAM have a much sharper northern cutoff than the rest of the models (the GFS is pretty dry overall).  Given the factors favoring robust QPF, and the Euro, its ensembles, the hi-res NAM, the RGEM, the GGEM, and to a decent extent the UKMET having more QPF...and trends if anything over the last two days worth of runs being slightly farther north with the QPF...I'm inclined to lean that direction, but the strong high gives me some pause in going 100% with a wetter solution.  Given the strong high and cold/dry air advecting in, I am definitely inclined to lean towards the colder guidance.  With potentially heavier rates there will likely be some runoff, so accretion may not be extremely efficient...though the colder models do have temps in the upper 20s with profiles that support mainly ZR as opposed to IP/SN, which could offset the heavy rates a bit. 

Given some question over accretion rate and QPF, I don't want to fully buy the 3km NAM and RGEM with their 0.5-1" of QPF of ZR yet, but I still think that accounting for varying uncertainties still yields potential for a swath of over 0.25" of ice accretion Wednesday night into Thursday morning...with some potential for more.  There may be a narrow band of accumulating snow on the northerm edge of all this if the wetter guidance plays out.  With warm temps through early tomorrow, it'll be interesting to see what kind of road impacts there are...they may take some time to develop on surface roads, and may not develop in areas where it's 31-32 degrees (though bridges and elevated surfaces may be a different story), but areas that are more than a little below freezing may eventually see icy conditions even on surface roads.  Definitely a complicated setup.  

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Toledo breaks nearly 90-year old record high. Note: my place in Colorado was 67 degrees on Sunday. It's sometimes interesting how above normal temps in northern Colorado are a precursor to above normal temps in IN/OH if the warm air mass travels across the country.

Quote

AT 459 PM EST, THE TEMPERATURE AT TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPORT REACHED 69   
DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY, WHICH WAS 66   
DEGREES SET IN 1930. 

 

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The Canadian suite is fairly bullish with precip surging back north tomorrow night... even into parts of central IL/northern IN. It's sort of alone to that extent but other guidance isn't terribly far behind.  Might have to keep an eye out for a little creeper event.

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After a couple of inches of snow early this morning, skies cleared and a beautiful day unfolded.  High of 22, but the Feb sun overcame the chill enough to enjoy being outside all day. Down to 6 already tonight... weekend system looks interesting.  

The warmth south and east of here for February is incredible, but nothing surprises me anymore.

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Interesting past few weather days here and some interesting ones ahead. 

Monday morning woke up to freezing drizzle which transitioned into sleet and eventually snow, we received just under an inch of snow during the day, and then went back over to freezing mist. Overnight into Tuesday another quick inch of snow fell to create headaches for the commute. 

Looking ahead a solid 2-4 seems like a good bet tomorrow evening across much of the state. The storm system over the weekend has also caught my attention, sub 1000MB low cutting through Iowa and Wisconsin could bring some double digit totals to a wide swath of the state. I'll be up north in Lutsen :ski: this weekend and the conditions look suburb especially with good chances 6"+ snow over the next 4 days. 

 

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

After a couple of inches of snow early this morning, skies cleared and a beautiful day unfolded.  High of 22, but the Feb sun overcame the chill enough to enjoy being outside all day. Down to 6 already tonight... weekend system looks interesting.  

The warmth south and east of here for February is incredible, but nothing surprises me anymore.

You just escaped it, and I mean just lol. One week ago there was more snow on the ground in Detroit then pretty much anywhere in northern Michigan north of Flint until you got well into the UP.

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The wind fields are pretty nuts on the NAM.  There is a period there with 65-70 kts at the top of the mixed layer in the LOT cwa.  GFS is not quite as impressive. If a NAM like solution were to verify, there would easily be a window of high wind warning criteria winds.

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4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I'm optimistic that we will top the 50 inch mark in Calumet on Sunday. Somewhere between 45-50 inches on the ground now -- and another 6-10 inches looks possible tomorrow night into Sunday.

Wilma!! :wub:

Yeah, looks  good up there this weekend.  Take pics!

Should cross the 40” here.

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22 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I'm optimistic that we will top the 50 inch mark in Calumet on Sunday. Somewhere between 45-50 inches on the ground now -- and another 6-10 inches looks possible tomorrow night into Sunday.

:snowman:

Great to hear - mainly due to excessive snowfall? Or very few thaws? Or higher-than-normal water content? Or combination of all? 

I thought you'd have less than 45-50" on the ground, since it seems like regular snows haven't occurred much after the initial LE onslaught in December.

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