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February 2018 Discussion


Frog Town

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With the dense overcast we won't be able to see the northward progression of the bare ground via satellite today.  We lost a good inch overnight, with around an inch or so left.  I'm guessing areas south of I-80 are the same, or even less since they have been warmer.  Latest HRRRx has MLI tagging 62, with 60-61 here.  Once the winds veer a bit more southerly, or south-southwesterly we should see a good push northward with the thermal ridge.  I'll ride the Euro/HRRRx and be optimistic we can snag a 60.  BTW, the "regular" HRRR has a lol worthy impenetrable stationary wall where it was modeled to have the southern edge of the snow pack where temps are either in the 40s or the 60s either side of it.  

The models are forecasting another 60+ day for this area tomorrow as the next wave rides up the stalled frontal boundary.  Some models have us in the low 60s, while out near Hawkeye it may be below freezing.

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A line of thunderstorms just moved through my area.  Very heavy rain led to a quick 0.51".  The ground is frozen, so lakes quickly formed in the yards.  For the first time in years, there was a river of water flowing through my backyard.

My yard retains water easily.  Can't imagine what it may look like in the next couple days.

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Now it's looking like this ice storm may be more of a nuisance event. The gradient for ice has seemed to move north enough that instead of a .25" it's now looking like a .01" or possibly even nothing.They even took away my Ice Storm Warning. Yet I'm still to far north to get the heavy rain that's expected by Milwaukee and UMBwx. :thumbsdown:. I was really hoping to have no school tomorrow.

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Had some fog here late last night into earlier this afternoon, but it quickly faded with the passage of the warm front. Temps jumped from the mid-40's to the mid-50's.

Snow depth down to 0, with only piles, drifted areas and heavily shaded areas with snow remaining...much of which will likely be gone by tomorrow night with mild temps and heavy rain.

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Temps overperformed a bit today, tying the record high of 70. First 70-degree of the year.

 

640
SXUS71 KILN 200039
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT DAYTON OH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT COX DAYTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 70
DEGREES TODAY AT 525 PM. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE SET IN 1939.

 

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As much as I despise everything about this warm rainstorm, I have to admit the steam wisping above the snow early this evening as temps soared into the mid-50s was pretty cool. It was ghostly & spooky. Snow putting up quite a fight too, its funny, other times we touch 50F and its just enough to wipe it out, we still had full snowcover with dewpoints in the mid-50s tonight lol. But its going for sure.

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28377527_10109762113737633_2569903857269

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23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

As much as I despise everything about this warm rainstorm, I have to admit the steam wisping above the snow early this evening as temps soared into the mid-50s was pretty cool. It was ghostly & spooky. Snow putting up quite a fight too, its funny, other times we touch 50F and its just enough to wipe it out, we still had full snowcover with dewpoints in the mid-50s tonight lol. But its going for sure.

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28377527_10109762113737633_2569903857269

And that, my friend, is why I'd prefer some synoptic snowstorms moving in from the southwest. System snow puts up a MUCH better fight against thaws and late winter sunshine in comparison to high-ratio fluff.

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27 minutes ago, blackrock said:

And that, my friend, is why I'd prefer some synoptic snowstorms moving in from the southwest. System snow puts up a MUCH better fight against thaws and late winter sunshine in comparison to high-ratio fluff.

True. I mean in this particular case we don't stand a chance with mid 60s tomorrow, but I see what you are saying. The ground was covered in snow most of winter. After snowcover was laid down in early Dec we got up to 10" depth in mid-Dec. This all disappeared for 3 days of bare ground before Christmas eve. Then we had more snow which peaked in depth at 8" after the record cold snap. This disappeared and we had a week of bare ground in mid-late Jan before the next round of snow took over, peaking at 14" depth. So while snow has been on the ground literally all but a week and a half since early Dec, this will be the 3rd major meltdown. I blame La Nina, but she's also at least partially responsible for us getting so much snow to begin with. 

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Was nice while it lasted.  Cold front passed a few hours ago and knocked us back into the low 40s.  Hit 58 here earlier, and DVN/MLI both tagged 63.  Models have pushed the next wave a bit further east, so it looks like we won't get back into the warm sector tomorrow.  Have picked up 0.50" so far for the event, which is the best rains we've seen since way back in mid October.  Should tack on another half inch to an inch before she shuts down tomorrow afternoon.

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