February 2018 Discussion

[cyclone77]

Absolute rippage right now under this enhanced band.  Pouring huge fatties.  Usually when flakes are this size they're a bit more sparse within a field of finer flakes.  Extremely impressive.

EDIT:  Some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen during the day with little wind.  Probably a good 2-3"/hr type rate right now.

[Chicago WX]

Started with a few flakes for a minute or two, and then went straight to rip city. Things are going downhill quickly, lol.

[cyclone77]

Eyeballing out the window it looks like 1.5-2", with most of that falling in the past half hour.

[Radtechwxman]

That was a nice surprise snow event. Easily had rates at or exceeding an inch per hour. Huge dendrites. Definitely got over an inch here. Saw a few lightning strikes on radarscope to. Def a very convective band

[cyclone77]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Eyeballing out the window it looks like 1.5-2", with most of that falling in the past half hour.

2.0".  Nice little surprise event.  Snow depth is now back up to 4".  Might take a few degrees off our Monday potential, but with bare ground not too far south it might not.  Hard to believe it could be in the 60s in <48hrs.

[Hoosier]

Wasn't really paying attention to the models run by run but I noticed the GEM had been advertising something like this about 4-5 days ago.

[Chicago WX]

About 2” here so far, and still coming down. And to think LOT as of this morning had rain mentioned in the forecast for here. 

[Hoosier]

Ripping

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

About 2” here so far, and still coming down. And to think LOT as of this morning had rain mentioned in the forecast for here. 

Impressive.  Evaporative cooling ftw.

[Indystorm]

What a nice gift to those of you experiencing the snow.  It reminds me that Mother Nature always has surprise tricks up her sleeve.

[Chicago WX]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive.  Evaporative cooling ftw.

Puking snow right now. Definitely advisory worthy here. Roads are a disaster.

[Hoosier]

Snow is clinging to everything with the wetness and lack of wind.  Very picturesque.

[Radtechwxman]

Per ILX AFD: 

Have received a report of 2.5 inches of snow
over far northern Knox County, with 1/4 mile visibilities as far
south as Peoria. Lightning data suggested a bit of thundersnow in
northeast Knox County shortly before noon, which could explain the
higher snow amounts there.

[CoalCityWxMan]

Have 2.6” here, measured after some melting/compacting too. Very impressive event 

[Chicago Storm]

I don't know, I might go DAB+ in some spots.

Yea, that was a failed call. Granted most guidances wasn’t impressed even as of this morning.

I’ve been downtown, and there’s been a nice period of +SN here with big flakes.


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[Chicago WX]

3 on the nose here for a total. That was awesome. Reminded me of the "Wall of Snow" event of Dec 8, 2005...how it went straight to rippage once the snow started. 

[Chicago Storm]

ORD finished with 2.0”

Had 1.8” here with I got home, but that was a bit after it ended. So likely was a bit of compacting/melting.


.

[RCNYILWX]

Steep mid-level lapse rates and evaporative/dynamic cooling FTW today. Wish I had posted something yesterday, but felt this setup looked good to get a period of moderate to heavy snow. Was thinking more along lines of a briefer period of heavy snow like on the evening before the Super Bowl, so a bit surprised by solid 1-3" across the area.

NAM varied run to run with QPF due to issues it can have with dry air, but soundings consistently showed very steep lapse rates of 7-8/km from 650-500mb. Euro and GEMs did a good job capturing the footprint of the QPF, Euro in particular on 00z and 12z 2/17 runs showed swath of 0.10 to 0.15" qpf across northern IL. The HRRR-x did best out of the CAMs, was tracking its extended range runs and starting with 06z 2/16 run, it very consistently showed 30-40 dbZ echoes on sim comp ref over northern IL and NW IN during mid afternoon today.

So the surprise of this event was likely partially owing to not fully buying into the higher qpf on some of the guidance and/or looking for signs of conditions supportive of heavy rates and evaporative/dynamic cooling even on runs with less QPF to overcome somewhat marginal temps. The GFS did a terrible job overall, had many runs with no QPF up to as recently as 12z 2/16 and when it finally showed QPF was too light.

With 2" at ORD, that brings it up to 20.3" on the month, tying Feb 2007 as 10th snowiest Feb on record for Chicago, and season total is now up to 30.3". Impressive rally and glad this stretch delivered.

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[IWXwx]

A surprising 2.7" here. From a large dendrite, partly daytime, no wind standpoint, my best of the year even if not the most.

[Chinook]

Possible ice storm within 84 hours for IA/WI

 

 

[OHweather]

Got a little over 1” here, and will echo the sentiment of being a bit surprised by it.  Had a brief period of borderline moderate snow with large flakes. 

[Stebo]

I didn't get a chance to measure but it was enough to cover the roads. Maybe around an inch.

[Geoboy645]

Looking to have more of an ice threat with this storm. MKE is saying a .25" or so for me with higher totals to my north. I'm going to be surprised if we don't have some type of cancellation or delay in the next couple of days. This plus an inch of rain and a remaining snowpack could provide some very interesting roads the next couple of days. Also flooding could be a concern because our ground is still quite frozen out there. 

[cyclone77]

Yesterday's 2" of snow brought us to 16.4" for the month, and over 25" for the season.  Nice rally.  

The fresh snow and light winds allowed us to drop to 9 degrees this morning.  The point for tomorrow has been lowered to 56, down from up near 60 the last few days.  The Euro continues to insist we break 60, so I'm guessing we will.  Temps will be well above freezing from early afternoon today onward.  Should melt quite a bit of snow by noon tomorrow. 

Not worried about freezing rain for this area.  By the time the air gets near/below freezing almost all the precip will be out of here later in the day Tue.

[RCNYILWX]

Yesterday's 2" of snow brought us to 16.4" for the month, and over 25" for the season.  Nice rally.  
The fresh snow and light winds allowed us to drop to 9 degrees this morning.  The point for tomorrow has been lowered to 56, down from up near 60 the last few days.  The Euro continues to insist we break 60, so I'm guessing we will.  Temps will be well above freezing from early afternoon today onward.  Should melt quite a bit of snow by noon tomorrow. 
Not worried about freezing rain for this area.  By the time the air gets near/below freezing almost all the precip will be out of here later in the day Tue.

We know the NAM thermal progs are junk when it thinks there's snow on the ground, which in this case there probably will be some to start tomorrow. However, it may be time to start taking seriously possibility warm front gets hung up along/south of I-80 tomorrow until the evening, especially closer to the lake. Even without snow cover, the NAM did a better job than globals sniffing out a more southward warm front position of a few events in recent springs 24-36 hours out.

Outside of the snow cover factor, a weaker surface low should translate to front not being able to make it as far north as northeast winds down the cold lake reinforce the front south until better pressure falls tomorrow night allow it to move north.

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[michsnowfreak]

Headed back home after a fun weekend up north. It's crazy that the entire drive up north there was as much or less snow as in metro Detroit. Even Gaylord had no more than Detroit. Tons of patches of grass into st ignace. As soon as we hit Newberry...BAM. Deep snow. I'd say it was 1.5 to 2 feet in Paradise. I've seen it much deeper up there but it's always an adventure to go.up there and walk in the frozen ice caves of Lake Superior.

 

Sounds like we had about 0.2" yesterday at home. Was forecast an inch where i was in the UP but just flurries fell. Snowpack at home has frozen in place after the thaw last week but should be on the way out tomorrow and for sure Tuesday. Plenty of time left for snowfall, but this should be it for "deep winter".

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

We know the NAM thermal progs are junk when it thinks there's snow on the ground, which in this case there probably will be some to start tomorrow. However, it may be time to start taking seriously possibility warm front gets hung up along/south of I-80 tomorrow until the evening, especially closer to the lake. Even without snow cover, the NAM did a better job than globals sniffing out a more southward warm front position of a few events in recent springs 24-36 hours out.

Outside of the snow cover factor, a weaker surface low should translate to front not being able to make it as far north as northeast winds down the cold lake reinforce the front south until better pressure falls tomorrow night allow it to move north.

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Great point.  I have learned the hard way over the years (expecting a warm front to get north of here only to see it halt progress somewhere around US 30) that these fronts tend to not want to get as far north as progged unless there's a good reason to... as you mentioned, we don't have that strong of a surface low.

[IWXwx]

18 hours ago, IWXwx said:

A surprising 2.7" here. From a large dendrite, partly daytime, no wind standpoint, my best of the year even if not the most.

 

[Spartman]

Just as feared, DAY in the screw zone while CMH and CVG had decent sun at times. Temps underachieved at 44 under wall-to-wall overcast skies.  TWC was the only that stuck its fork on today.  Hence, another crappy weekend. A lick or two of sunshine last Saturday (February 10th) saved DAY and CMH from a 2nd shutout weekend in a row. Either way, the pattern of crappy weekends continue at least until next month. Looks like the Week Without a Sun is on the horizon this week.

[cyclone77]

8 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

We know the NAM thermal progs are junk when it thinks there's snow on the ground, which in this case there probably will be some to start tomorrow. However, it may be time to start taking seriously possibility warm front gets hung up along/south of I-80 tomorrow until the evening, especially closer to the lake. Even without snow cover, the NAM did a better job than globals sniffing out a more southward warm front position of a few events in recent springs 24-36 hours out.

Outside of the snow cover factor, a weaker surface low should translate to front not being able to make it as far north as northeast winds down the cold lake reinforce the front south until better pressure falls tomorrow night allow it to move north.

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Yeah it'll be interesting to see how far north it makes it.  One thing going in our favor (here in the DVN cwa) is that the snow field ends only about 30 miles south of MLI.  The snow took a pretty decent hit today, with generally only a few inches or less left.  With the southerly winds tomorrow I think the southern edge of the snow field will quickly advance northward and get to at least I-80 by mid afternoon.  I think MLI will bag a 60 tomorrow, but as you go north of there things may drop off a decent amount.  I'm hopeful we can snag a 60 here, but mid 50s is probably the better call.  

A little different scenario for the LOT cwa, as the snow field extends pretty far south in their cwa.  It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.