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February 2018 Discussion

Frog Town

By Frog Town,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Recent GFS runs ending with 18z run. It's a pretty sensitive setup with all the cold air not too far away, but today's operational model runs were certainly as you said a step toward more interesting.de9b0fa06db313630ce00dd5f8064683.gif

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Would really love to see a stronger low eject out, which could very well still happen.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Recent GFS runs ending with 18z run. It's a pretty sensitive setup with all the cold air not too far away, but today's operational model runs were certainly as you said a step toward more interesting.de9b0fa06db313630ce00dd5f8064683.gif

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Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday?  I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then.

Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted
Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday?  I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then. Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question.  

 

There will probably be some left, but not a lot. And even if there is, the southern cutoff will be fairly close by.   

 

Southern three counties on the CWA had under 4” in the ground as of this morning.

 

ORD lost ~4” today so far, from ~10” to ~6”.

 

 

.

 

 

 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There will probably be some left, but not a lot. And even if there is, the southern cutoff will be fairly close by.   

 

Southern three counties on the CWA had under 4” in the ground as of this morning.

 

ORD lost ~4” today so far, from ~10” to ~6”.

 

 

.

 

 

 

Wow, I'd say there is a lot more than 6" on the ground here.  The area around the I-80 corridor would have the highest depths though in the LOT cwa.

Looks to be above freezing all the way until late Thursday/early Friday, so that will take a toll.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cmillzz said:

It’d be in the 60s right now if it weren’t for this deep snowpack :thumbsdown:

 

4 hours ago, cmillzz said:

crippling ice storm, can’t wait.

Lol...are you negative about everything? Temps are going to be averaging 10 to 20 degrees above average several times over the next week or two...and you're mad because it won't hit 60??? (Which it still could...)

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday?  I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then.

Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question.

1/7/08 says hi. There was definitely snow on the ground in western MI when we had severe weather. That said, I think the fog tonight beats the snow pack down quite a bit along with the rain tomorrow.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Would really love to see a stronger low eject out, which could very well still happen.

Yeah, sometimes I don't get how that works. With such a strong temperature gradient, I would expect a lot of baroclinic instability and bombogenesis but a lot of times the cold air just plows in without spinning up a strong surface low. Saw this with almost every potential system in April, 2013.

Well at least this time if we do get severe potential I'll know not to blow off a chase just because it's February in the upper Midwest! Still kicking myself for following through on a commitment to help a friend do clean-up work at the condo he was moving out of last 2/28 instead of heading down to the I-80 corridor.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

The stronger Sun angle was quite obvious today on a sunny day with temps in the 40s. I measured a few snow depth redings when I got home from work. In areas that were exposed to full Sun the depth was close of 8", in areas where there was full shade the depth was closer to 12". Reminder tho, Sun angle certainly effects retaining snowcover a lot more than actual snowfall. Just wanted to throw that out there as we are at that time I when we start to hear Sun angle Sun angle. Heavy snow would stick to cement in May lol

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted

Found this little gem in the MKX discussion...

Quote 

Precip becomes more likely on Monday afternoon as the parent low
moves through southern Wisconsin. Models in surprisingly good
consensus with the timing and placement of the low, swinging it
right through our CWA around 00z on Tuesday. That said, storm
total QPF amounts vary quite a bit at this point making it tough
to get very specific. None the less, it does look like this will
be a significant event somewhere in the Upper Midwest.

 

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
1/7/08 says hi. There was definitely snow on the ground in western MI when we had severe weather. That said, I think the fog tonight beats the snow pack down quite a bit along with the rain tomorrow.
Was gonna say earlier, 1/7/08 a good case of not needing a stronger low to eject out. And also having deep snow pack prior to the event.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Lost a good 4-5" of snow today.  The fog and higher moisture levels really did a number on it.  The low moisture content of the snow pack is also key in it melting quickly.  Should be down to mostly bare ground by Sunday night.

Or maybe sooner.  Lost another inch or so this eve.  Had 11" OTG from Sun-Mon.  Lost a few inches yesterday.  With the 3-4" left now that means we lost 5-6" since last evening.  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Was gonna say earlier, 1/7/08 a good case of not needing a stronger low to eject out. And also having deep snow pack prior to the event.

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I went back and checked snow depth for Chicago, Milwaukee, and Rockford for January 2008 (areas that were closer to the tornadic activity) and there was little left by the 6th and it was gone on the 7th... except maybe for some piles.  It can melt very quickly with the type of setup being advertised for Monday... not to mention what melts before then so we'll see.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
On 2/11/2018 at 11:24 AM, IWXwx said:

GEM and GFS has a couple of waves creating some convective activity the OH River area in the next 10 days, while the Euro says, *flash* BOOM!! to ORD next Thursday evening.

Guess I'll just put this here: 

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN IL TO
   SOUTHWEST OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds and a tornado will be possible across parts
   of the Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley this evening.

   ...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley...
   Primary change is to add a Marginal risk area where RAP guidance and
   observations suggest potential for surface-based destabilization by
   peak heating amid immense deep-layer shear.

   Visible satellite imagery indicates a pronounced area of mostly
   cloud-free heating underway across southern Missouri that should
   shift east across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley through the
   afternoon. This appears to be associated with the northern periphery
   of an elevated mixed layer sampled by the 12Z Springfield sounding.
   RAP forecast soundings continue to be quite bullish relative to
   other guidance in depicting SBCAPE, up to around 1000 J/kg, while
   NAM/GFS indicate negligible amounts. Given the likelihood of
   near-record high surface temperatures in combination with upper 50s
   to lower 60s dew points, the setup should yield a corridor of
   surface-based destabilization. 

   Morning CAMs are consistent with simulating convective development
   along a southeast-moving cold front around 00Z, as inhibition
   weakens along the boundary. The orientation of the front will
   generally parallel deep-layer flow and support a linear convective
   mode. However, with effective shear potentially reaching 80-90 kt,
   embedded bowing structures are possible and would yield a risk for
   damaging winds and a tornado. This threat will decay overnight and
   with eastern extent given diminishing buoyancy and a more stable
   boundary-layer.

day1otlk_20180215_1630_prt.gif

day1probotlk_20180215_1630_torn_prt.gif

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Chambana

Chambana

Posted
Posted

Ended up topping out at 61 with a dp of 59, truly felt springlike and definitely has me itching for consistent springlike conditions. Rest of February looks fairly mild. 

EDIT: actually had a rumble of thunder this morning as well, and some much needed rainfall. Rainfall has been scarce the past few months. Next week should prove to be beneficial to many needing a good drink. 

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