Stebo Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Recent GFS runs ending with 18z run. It's a pretty sensitive setup with all the cold air not too far away, but today's operational model runs were certainly as you said a step toward more interesting. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Would really love to see a stronger low eject out, which could very well still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Recent GFS runs ending with 18z run. It's a pretty sensitive setup with all the cold air not too far away, but today's operational model runs were certainly as you said a step toward more interesting. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday? I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then. Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday? I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then. Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question. There will probably be some left, but not a lot. And even if there is, the southern cutoff will be fairly close by. Southern three counties on the CWA had under 4” in the ground as of this morning. ORD lost ~4” today so far, from ~10” to ~6”. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Streets and driveways plowed themselves today as we hit 38 with nearly full sun for the whole day. Was nice to bike to work. Felt nice but still had to zip up the jacket on the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Lost a good 4-5" of snow today. The fog and higher moisture levels really did a number on it. The low moisture content of the snow pack is also key in it melting quickly. Should be down to mostly bare ground by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There will probably be some left, but not a lot. And even if there is, the southern cutoff will be fairly close by. Southern three counties on the CWA had under 4” in the ground as of this morning. ORD lost ~4” today so far, from ~10” to ~6”. . Wow, I'd say there is a lot more than 6" on the ground here. The area around the I-80 corridor would have the highest depths though in the LOT cwa. Looks to be above freezing all the way until late Thursday/early Friday, so that will take a toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 hours ago, cmillzz said: It’d be in the 60s right now if it weren’t for this deep snowpack 4 hours ago, cmillzz said: crippling ice storm, can’t wait. Lol...are you negative about everything? Temps are going to be averaging 10 to 20 degrees above average several times over the next week or two...and you're mad because it won't hit 60??? (Which it still could...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Won't we still have snow on the ground on Monday? I mean, I haven't been looking at things much, but it would seem to be difficult to melt off everything by then. Not that a severe threat couldn't occur in snowcovered areas, but it of course would bring surface based instability into question. 1/7/08 says hi. There was definitely snow on the ground in western MI when we had severe weather. That said, I think the fog tonight beats the snow pack down quite a bit along with the rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Stebo said: Would really love to see a stronger low eject out, which could very well still happen. Yeah, sometimes I don't get how that works. With such a strong temperature gradient, I would expect a lot of baroclinic instability and bombogenesis but a lot of times the cold air just plows in without spinning up a strong surface low. Saw this with almost every potential system in April, 2013. Well at least this time if we do get severe potential I'll know not to blow off a chase just because it's February in the upper Midwest! Still kicking myself for following through on a commitment to help a friend do clean-up work at the condo he was moving out of last 2/28 instead of heading down to the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Dense fog tonight in Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Down to 1/8SM here, it is thick as can be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The stronger Sun angle was quite obvious today on a sunny day with temps in the 40s. I measured a few snow depth redings when I got home from work. In areas that were exposed to full Sun the depth was close of 8", in areas where there was full shade the depth was closer to 12". Reminder tho, Sun angle certainly effects retaining snowcover a lot more than actual snowfall. Just wanted to throw that out there as we are at that time I when we start to hear Sun angle Sun angle. Heavy snow would stick to cement in May lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Dense fog tonight in Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Found this little gem in the MKX discussion... Quote Precip becomes more likely on Monday afternoon as the parent low moves through southern Wisconsin. Models in surprisingly good consensus with the timing and placement of the low, swinging it right through our CWA around 00z on Tuesday. That said, storm total QPF amounts vary quite a bit at this point making it tough to get very specific. None the less, it does look like this will be a significant event somewhere in the Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Fairly dense fog around the area the past several hours. Should continue into tomorrow as well.DPA has been at 1/16M for the past 5 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1/7/08 says hi. There was definitely snow on the ground in western MI when we had severe weather. That said, I think the fog tonight beats the snow pack down quite a bit along with the rain tomorrow.Was gonna say earlier, 1/7/08 a good case of not needing a stronger low to eject out. And also having deep snow pack prior to the event. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Lost a good 4-5" of snow today. The fog and higher moisture levels really did a number on it. The low moisture content of the snow pack is also key in it melting quickly. Should be down to mostly bare ground by Sunday night. Or maybe sooner. Lost another inch or so this eve. Had 11" OTG from Sun-Mon. Lost a few inches yesterday. With the 3-4" left now that means we lost 5-6" since last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Was gonna say earlier, 1/7/08 a good case of not needing a stronger low to eject out. And also having deep snow pack prior to the event. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk I went back and checked snow depth for Chicago, Milwaukee, and Rockford for January 2008 (areas that were closer to the tornadic activity) and there was little left by the 6th and it was gone on the 7th... except maybe for some piles. It can melt very quickly with the type of setup being advertised for Monday... not to mention what melts before then so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Snowpack took a good beating here yesterday (Dearborn). Today should only compound the loss. Have to see if the pair of 50s and rain next week doesn’t wipe it out completely. #LaNina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 64F is the forecast high for CMH today. Anything above 60F would be the high temperature for DJF, which we will hit as it's currently 57F. HRRR has CMH tagging 66F, which would be the highest since 11/5/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/11/2018 at 11:24 AM, IWXwx said: GEM and GFS has a couple of waves creating some convective activity the OH River area in the next 10 days, while the Euro says, *flash* BOOM!! to ORD next Thursday evening. Guess I'll just put this here: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a tornado will be possible across parts of the Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley this evening. ...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley... Primary change is to add a Marginal risk area where RAP guidance and observations suggest potential for surface-based destabilization by peak heating amid immense deep-layer shear. Visible satellite imagery indicates a pronounced area of mostly cloud-free heating underway across southern Missouri that should shift east across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This appears to be associated with the northern periphery of an elevated mixed layer sampled by the 12Z Springfield sounding. RAP forecast soundings continue to be quite bullish relative to other guidance in depicting SBCAPE, up to around 1000 J/kg, while NAM/GFS indicate negligible amounts. Given the likelihood of near-record high surface temperatures in combination with upper 50s to lower 60s dew points, the setup should yield a corridor of surface-based destabilization. Morning CAMs are consistent with simulating convective development along a southeast-moving cold front around 00Z, as inhibition weakens along the boundary. The orientation of the front will generally parallel deep-layer flow and support a linear convective mode. However, with effective shear potentially reaching 80-90 kt, embedded bowing structures are possible and would yield a risk for damaging winds and a tornado. This threat will decay overnight and with eastern extent given diminishing buoyancy and a more stable boundary-layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 St. Louis torching at 73 already. Widespread dews over 60 in southern IL and southwest IN. That's gotta feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: St. Louis torching at 73 already. Widespread dews over 60 in southern IL and southwest IN. That's gotta feel nice. This is a good sign for the type of moisture and warm air advection we might see on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The SPC afternoon update has probably the smallest 2% threat area I've ever seen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 This fog is relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: This fog is relentless. Over 24 hours of 1/4 mile or less visibility here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Over 24 hours of 1/4 mile or less visibility here I couldn't see to the end of my block this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This fog is relentless. Short term models have the fog lasting another 4-6 more hours locally. Just relentless like you speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Ended up topping out at 61 with a dp of 59, truly felt springlike and definitely has me itching for consistent springlike conditions. Rest of February looks fairly mild. EDIT: actually had a rumble of thunder this morning as well, and some much needed rainfall. Rainfall has been scarce the past few months. Next week should prove to be beneficial to many needing a good drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Some convective development now in the Wabash Valley moving eastward. Made it up to 65 here today and felt wonderful. As was mentioned earlier some possible strong storms this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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