February 2018 Discussion

[luckyweather]

This is the February thread, but since it kind of derailed into March, I’ll add some color to illustrate how anomalous March 2012 was:

Chicago broke or tied daily high temperature records on nine consecutive days from March 14-22. This was the second longest stretch of standing daily temperature records of any type for Chicago dating back to 1871.

The record for standing consecutive temperature records is ten daily high temperature records from August 25-September 3, 1953.

Rockford broke daily high temperature records on eight of nine days from March 14-22. Only March 19th did not reach a record high.

At Rockford, the daily records for warm lows were broken for nine consecutive days between March 14-23. Dating back to 1893, no other stretch of standing warm low records is of this duration for Rockford.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/march2012_heat


. Pro

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

2010 was a Morch, and then two years later, 2012 was an even bigger one. I guess it's dependent on your definition of "Morch" but it will happen from time to time.

I'm pretty sure there were a few quasi-Morch Marches in the 1990s though I can't remember exactly when.

It's subjective... there's +5F to +8F type Marches (and other months) from time to time which is unusual but not all that rare, but March 2012 took things to another level with widespread +12 to +15 and even locally greater temperature anomalies.   

[michsnowfreak]

As was discussed, icicles, icicles everywhere. Took these pics after work early this evening.

 

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GreenBo said:

I think the 2012 reference coincided with a week long stretch of 80s. I believe you have to go back to the 1940s to find a close match. Very anomalous. 

We had 80F+ temps for 3 days that March, definitely not a week. However, that was the record, the previous record was 2 days in Mar 1945.

 

The Morch obsession here is annoying. It was a terrible thing for agriculture and we paid the price all year once spring freezes destroyed crops. Yet its looked at so fondly by many on here, the same ones that will reem you for wishing for anamolous cold at times

 

Speaking of cold...and since this is the FEB thread....Feb 2015 was more anamolous here (-14.0F) than Mar 2012 was (+13.5F).

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

2010 was a Morch, and then two years later, 2012 was an even bigger one. I guess it's dependent on your definition of "Morch" but it will happen from time to time.

I'm pretty sure there were a few quasi-Morch Marches in the 1990s though I can't remember exactly when.

The late 80's and early 90's had some terrible winters. It could explain, or atleast partially explain, the quasi-Morch's we saw in those years. As anomalous as March 2012 was, February 2015 was no exception. YYZ's coldest month on record beating 1994, which only occurred 21 years prior. 

[cmillzz]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had 80F+ temps for 3 days that March, definitely not a week. However, that was the record, the previous record was 2 days in Mar 1945.

 

The Morch obsession here is annoying. It was a terrible thing for agriculture and we paid the price all year once spring freezes destroyed crops. Yet its looked at so fondly by many on here, the same ones that will reem you for wishing for anamolous cold at times

 

Speaking of cold...and since this is the FEB thread....Feb 2015 was more anamolous here (-14.0F) than Mar 2012 was (+13.5F).

Just because Feb 2015 had a bigger departure doesn't mean it was more anomalous. There have been plenty of other winter months with colder departures. Feb 2014 was just about as cold as Feb 2015 for many locations. Feb 1936 blows Feb 2015 out of the water for not only expansive, but anomalous cold too. Believe there were some -30 F departures in parts of the country. Of course you also have Jan 1977 and Jan 1912 which produced some very cold anomalies. It's much harder to get insane warm anomalies in March than it is to get big cold anomalies in Jan or Feb.

We pretty much had 2+ weeks of summer in March 2012. Even before and after the actual heatwave there were some very warm days too. Feb 2015 was just a colder version of a typical cold February, not really all that eye-popping. The only other month I can think of that may have been as anomalous was March 1843, but we don't have enough existing data on that.

Feb 2015 wasn't unprecedented. March 2012 was though, and a heat event like that may never happen again, but I do wish for a "morch" every year I admit.

[snowstormcanuck]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's subjective... there's +5F to +8F type Marches (and other months) from time to time which is unusual but not all that rare, but March 2012 took things to another level with widespread +12 to +15 and even locally greater temperature anomalies.   

I remember. Horrific capper to a horrific winter.

Hopefully never repeated.

[snowstormcanuck]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

The late 80's and early 90's had some terrible winters. It could explain, or atleast partially explain, the quasi-Morch's we saw in those years. As anomalous as March 2012 was, February 2015 was no exception. YYZ's coldest month on record beating 1994, which only occurred 21 years prior. 

Six consecutive winters between 1987-88 and 1992-93 YYZ recorded sub 40" snowfall. By contrast, the 1970s didn't record a single sub 40" winter that decade.

[GreenBo]

The obsession with the 2012 Morch is also closely tied with the bouts of severe weather associated with it. The Dexter EF3 tornado that accompanied the summer like conditions made the ‘Morch’ even more memorable. IF we ever repeat a Morch again, it will be benchmarked against 2012. 

[GreenBo]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had 80F+ temps for 3 days that March, definitely not a week. However, that was the record, the previous record was 2 days in Mar 1945.

 

The Morch obsession here is annoying. It was a terrible thing for agriculture and we paid the price all year once spring freezes destroyed crops. Yet its looked at so fondly by many on here, the same ones that will reem you for wishing for anamolous cold at times

 

Speaking of cold...and since this is the FEB thread....Feb 2015 was more anamolous here (-14.0F) than Mar 2012 was (+13.5F).

The normies prefer 80 degree weather over sub-zero temps. Same people that prefer winter rain  over snow. We are NOT the norm. Morch is also ingrained in the public’s mind of a preferred spring. Damn near fact. 

[Geoboy645]

Honestly I don't really want to see a Morch anytime soon. Along with the reasons stated above, the heat was just to early. It's not nice to sweat in mid-march. Plus in March the trees aren't even close to leafed out yet, so there is no shade when you are outside. In the 80's that doesn't feel the best. I am surprised though that no one on here has mentioned a year ago as an anomalous stretch. I think the 70's on Presidents day was crazier than the 80's on St. Patrick's Day. That stretch made last march suck though as even the 50's that are normally reveled were thought of as cold.

[buckeye]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had 80F+ temps for 3 days that March, definitely not a week. However, that was the record, the previous record was 2 days in Mar 1945.

 

The Morch obsession here is annoying. It was a terrible thing for agriculture and we paid the price all year once spring freezes destroyed crops. Yet its looked at so fondly by many on here, the same ones that will reem you for wishing for anamolous cold at times

 

Speaking of cold...and since this is the FEB thread....Feb 2015 was more anamolous here (-14.0F) than Mar 2012 was (+13.5F).

Fondly? Obsession?  Most of us come here because of weather extremes.  If there was an obsession about March 2012, not that there is because it's more fascination than obsession, it's well warranted.   This is a quote from the NWS regarding that month:

" In fact, the warm spell which occurred during the middle of the month is perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago. "

Detroit hit 86 degrees and Saginaw hit 87 degrees, both around the 21st or 22nd.   Pretty incredible, but apparently some seem to find it more intriguing and fascinating to have snow in Michigan in February.

[cyclone77]

Lots of melting out there with a temp of 38.  Should make it into the 40s both today and tomorrow, and temps will stay above freezing all night tonight.  Euro has us in the lower 60s on Monday.

[hawkeye_wx]

As cyclone posted, it's into the 40s here with sun and nice melting.  Leading up to today, there was a lot of talk about clouds hampering today's warmup, but it has been full sun all day.

We are only midway through February.  Why is the February thread being filled with March heatwave talk? 

[hlcater]

The pattern over the next week will be nice for winter standards, but I don't think we're done with winter out here yet either. I think we see a few more chances after feb 20th or so.

[cyclone77]

Party's almost over here.  The bank of dense 300-700ft ceilings is about here.  It's been creeping up from the south all morning.  Still full sun right now though, with just a few wispy cirrus streaming by overhead.  Temp up to 41.  Should level off once clouds arrive within the hour.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Just because Feb 2015 had a bigger departure doesn't mean it was more anomalous. There have been plenty of other winter months with colder departures. Feb 2014 was just about as cold as Feb 2015 for many locations. Feb 1936 blows Feb 2015 out of the water for not only expansive, but anomalous cold too. Believe there were some -30 F departures in parts of the country. Of course you also have Jan 1977 and Jan 1912 which produced some very cold anomalies. It's much harder to get insane warm anomalies in March than it is to get big cold anomalies in Jan or Feb.

We pretty much had 2+ weeks of summer in March 2012. Even before and after the actual heatwave there were some very warm days too. Feb 2015 was just a colder version of a typical cold February, not really all that eye-popping. The only other month I can think of that may have been as anomalous was March 1843, but we don't have enough existing data on that.

Feb 2015 wasn't unprecedented. March 2012 was though, and a heat event like that may never happen again, but I do wish for a "morch" every year I admit.

First off. Both Mar 2012 and Feb 2015 were extremely abnormal. I would 100% agree that March 2012 was the greater anamoly of the 2 in terms of overall coverage. I just said that for HERE, Feb 2015 had a greater departure.The center of the heat was to my West in March 2012 and the center of the cold right overhead in Feb 2015. But February 2015 was not just a cold february lol. It was the coldest Feb in the Midwest in 140 years. 

[Chicago Storm]

Fondly? Obsession?  Most of us come here because of weather extremes.  If there was an obsession about March 2012, not that there is because it's more fascination than obsession, it's well warranted.   This is a quote from the NWS regarding that month:
" In fact, the warm spell which occurred during the middle of the month is perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago. "
Detroit hit 86 degrees and Saginaw hit 87 degrees, both around the 21st or 22nd.   Pretty incredible, but apparently some seem to find it more intriguing and fascinating to have snow in Michigan in February.

Preach.


.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Fondly? Obsession?  Most of us come here because of weather extremes.  If there was an obsession about March 2012, not that there is because it's more fascination than obsession, it's well warranted.   This is a quote from the NWS regarding that month:

" In fact, the warm spell which occurred during the middle of the month is perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago. "

Detroit hit 86 degrees and Saginaw hit 87 degrees, both around the 21st or 22nd.   Pretty incredible, but apparently some seem to find it more intriguing and fascinating to have snow in Michigan in February.

I never said it wasnt impressive. I said Feb 2015 was a bigger anamoly, maybe I should have said bigger departure HERE..which it was. See above...the core of the warmth was west of us and even northern MI had warmer days than us. Every year Morch is discussed in nearly every thread in Feb and March. (Hint we are discussing it in the Feb thread lol). I've seen thread policing when certain winter things are discussed in wrong threads, when complaints are in the non complaint thread etc, but Morch runs rampant. That's all. And i rarely pull a beavis and complain about that stuff, but im sure my comment lands me in hot water. Do i consider 86 on Mar 22 impressive? Yes. Do i think it's impressive when my car reads -22 on Feb 22? Yes. Lol. the fact that Feb 2015 is looked at as just a cold Feb is hilarious. As witnessed by your post (hey it snowed in Feb) and the above one (there have been plenty of colder febs). Feb 2015 was the coldest Feb in the Midwest since 1875. In Detroit, the winter of 2013-14 waa the most anomalous thing I can find (in terms of comparing to anything that had happened prior). But in terms of nation or region wide anamolies, yes March 2012 wins.

[michsnowfreak]

Back to February 2018 discussion, I'm actually relaxing at the park right now on my lunch hour. There's a Spring smell to the air, the skies are clear and there is very little wind. The deep snow does not seem to be melting much yet.  As temperatures and dewpoints rise, even with the sun going away, we will certainly melt away before it cools down on Friday. How much remains to be seen.

[Snowstorms]

7 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Six consecutive winters between 1987-88 and 1992-93 YYZ recorded sub 40" snowfall. By contrast, the 1970s didn't record a single sub 40" winter that decade.

Wow! That's bad! But that stretch as you said can be equally compared to the 70's which had no sub 40" winter. So in one aspect, it doesn't seem very anomalous. The 70's had some of the best winters in modern times. What a nice treat it would be to repeat that entire decade again! 

[RCNYILWX]

Not sure which thread to put this in, but without looking too deeply into specifics, synoptic setup on 12z Euro, GFS and GEM Monday PM looks to be potentially supportive of severe weather in warm sector based off pattern recognition of previous cool season severe episodes.

 

12z Euro Tuesday through Wednesday night has a heavy rain/flooding to wintry mix with significant ZR threat and ending as snow for parts of northern IL. Definitely a period to watch with the warming aloft due to strong southeast ridge and close proximity of low level cold under cold surface highs over the Plains.

[nokywx]

Some rumbles of thunder, and a couple flashes of lightning in the last hour...definitely an early spring feel, as temps are climbing into the 50s.  The rain today is a little heavier than anticipated, setting the stage for the main show tomorrow night.  I would say a flood watch is a good possibility for tomorrow evening. 

[cyclone77]

You don't see it go from a sunny/breezy day to dense fog very often.  Here in town the vis is probably a good mile or so, but while running down to Geneseo a short while ago there was widespread visibilities of 1/4 mile or less.  Temp has dropped from our high of 41 back to 38.

One interesting thing of note is that in the areas where the fog was very dense it was quite bright out, with even some dim sunshine visible.  In areas where the fog is thinner it's much more dark.  This indicates that the fog/low cloud layer is very thin.  If you could poke up 500-800ft up you'd probably be looking down on the bank of clouds/fog.

[cmillzz]

It’d be in the 60s right now if it weren’t for this deep snowpack 

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not sure which thread to put this in, but without looking too deeply into specifics, synoptic setup on 12z Euro, GFS and GEM Monday PM looks to be potentially supportive of severe weather in warm sector based off pattern recognition of previous cool season severe episodes.

 

12z Euro Tuesday through Wednesday night has a heavy rain/flooding to wintry mix with significant ZR threat and ending as snow for parts of northern IL. Definitely a period to watch with the warming aloft due to strong southeast ridge and close proximity of low level cold under cold surface highs over the Plains.

crippling ice storm, can’t wait.

[Jim Martin]

Overcast skies and light rain/drizzle has moved into NW Ohio this afternoon.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not sure which thread to put this in, but without looking too deeply into specifics, synoptic setup on 12z Euro, GFS and GEM Monday PM looks to be potentially supportive of severe weather in warm sector based off pattern recognition of previous cool season severe episodes.

 

12z Euro Tuesday through Wednesday night has a heavy rain/flooding to wintry mix with significant ZR threat and ending as snow for parts of northern IL. Definitely a period to watch with the warming aloft due to strong southeast ridge and close proximity of low level cold under cold surface highs over the Plains.

That would be pretty interesting after what could be 60 degree warmth the day before.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not sure which thread to put this in, but without looking too deeply into specifics, synoptic setup on 12z Euro, GFS and GEM Monday PM looks to be potentially supportive of severe weather in warm sector based off pattern recognition of previous cool season severe episodes.

 

12z Euro Tuesday through Wednesday night has a heavy rain/flooding to wintry mix with significant ZR threat and ending as snow for parts of northern IL. Definitely a period to watch with the warming aloft due to strong southeast ridge and close proximity of low level cold under cold surface highs over the Plains.

Yeah as long as the cold push down the Rockies isn't quicker, we could really have an interesting afternoon Monday regionally. Just have to avoid crashing cold front, though the models look like they are trending more favorably in time.

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah as long as the cold push down the Rockies isn't quicker, we could really have an interesting afternoon Monday regionally. Just have to avoid crashing cold front, though the models look like they are trending more favorably in time.

Recent GFS runs ending with 18z run. It's a pretty sensitive setup with all the cold air not too far away, but today's operational model runs were certainly as you said a step toward more interesting.

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