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February 2018 Discussion


Frog Town

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33 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Not sure; I've only been here 2 winters. People say this is a slightly lacklustre winter...primarily because the lakes froze and cut off the snow so early on.

Still a good season - I've passed the 250 inch mark for the season thus far.

:lmao: I love it - those are some hardcore people in your neck of the woods. Everything is relative.

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2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I'm optimistic that we will top the 50 inch mark in Calumet on Sunday. Somewhere between 45-50 inches on the ground now -- and another 6-10 inches looks possible tomorrow night into Sunday.

What you have on the ground NOW beats our last 3 winters TOTAL snowfall combined 

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Near Minneapolis

Quote

.A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from this afternoon through
tonight for areas east of a line from Redwood Falls to St. Cloud,
Minnesota except for Eau Claire and Freeborn counties. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area.

Heavy snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will spread into
the area this afternoon. Given the expected intensity, conditions
will deteriorate rapidly following the onset of the snow. Snowfall
totals of 5 to 8 inches are likely. In addition, northwest winds
gusting to 30 mph late tonight will lead to areas of blowing snow,
especially across southern and eastern Minnesota, and western
Wisconsin. Travel could become very difficult this afternoon and
tonight.

 

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On 2/11/2018 at 11:03 AM, Chicago WX said:

Feb 2018 has now entered the top 20 for snowiest Februaries on record for Chicago (since 1885). 8 of the last 12 have accomplished that feat, so really a pretty remarkable run lately, of February snowfall at ORD.

2007: 20.3" (10th place)

2008: 21.8" (8th)

2010: 22.5" (T6th)

2011: 29.0" (1st)

2014: 19.5" (13th)

2015: 26.8" (3rd)

2018: 17.8" thru 6:00am today (17th)

Just saw this now. It is a remarkable run of Febs in this region snow-wise.

 

At Detroit it is 7 of the past 11 have made the top 20 (2007 was above normal but didnt make the list). However, all 7 of those are actually top 11. Pretty crazy to say that in 138 years of record, the top 11 snowiest Febs include 7 from the past 11 years, and 4 from the previous 127 years!

 

2008: 24.2" (8th)

2010: 27.0" (6th)

2011: 31.7" (2nd)

2013: 23.5" (9th)

2014: 23.4" (10th)

2015: 26.4" (7th)

2018: 21.0" (11th)

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Decent wind gusts in LOT early this morning

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
327 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Wind Reports...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date
Chicago Crib                 57 MPH    0130 AM 02/25
Valparaiso Airport           54 MPH    0104 AM 02/25
Gary Airport                 54 MPH    0545 AM 02/25
Kankakee Airport             52 MPH    1155 PM 02/24
Dupage Airport               52 MPH    0127 AM 02/25
De Kalb Airport              51 MPH    0115 AM 02/25
Rensselaer Airport           51 MPH    1235 AM 02/25
Pontiac Airport              49 MPH    1255 AM 02/25
Peotone                      48 MPH    0141 AM 02/25
Westmont                     48 MPH    0123 AM 02/25
Rosemont                     48 MPH    0202 AM 02/25
Peru Airport                 48 MPH    0135 AM 02/25
Chicago Midway               48 MPH    0257 AM 02/25
Wheeling - Chi Exec Airport  47 MPH    0128 AM 02/25
Sugar Grove - Aurora Airport 47 MPH    0433 AM 02/25
Rockford Airport             47 MPH    0214 AM 02/25
Calumet Harbor               46 MPH    0148 AM 02/25
Chicago O`Hare               46 MPH    0151 AM 02/25
1 W Chicago                  46 MPH    0235 AM 02/25
Burns Harbor                 46 MPH    0450 AM 02/25

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.


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35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Cedar Rapids hit 64 this afternoon, tying the record set two years ago.  It's a beautiful day, has been sitting in the mid 60s for a few hours with modest wind.

Yeah it really was a great day.  63 here, and 65 at MLI.  A lot of motorcycles out this afternoon for the first time.  It's dried out enough that you can spend some time out in the yard and not sink to your knees.

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I can't believe how warm it is. Unofficially 60.3F at YYZ at last obs, which makes it the fourth warmest February day on record. Third place was back in Feb 2016. Crazy enough, the second warmest was 8 days ago on Feb 20th at 61.7F and the warmest ever was last year at 63.8F!!! This is nuts! The top 4 warmest February days on record have all occurred in the last 3 years! I was never a firm believer of this whole climate change ordeal, but the last couple of years have definitely changed my mind about that.  

When looking at this from a bigger perspective, every winter since 2010-11, aside from 13-14 and 14-15, has been way above average. Not even just a little above average. 11-12 was ridiculously warm, 12-13 was primarily warm aside from Feb 2013, 15-16 was incredibly warm, 16-17 was a no-show after December, and this year - after that thaw in January winters back was broken! Very rarely do you see record breaking SE ridge's back to back as we've seen in the last few winters. 13-14 and 14-15 are certainly looking like outliers in this new regime. I don't know if this correlates to the solar cycle, but moving forward we'll be entering into a period of low solar so we'll revisit this 5 years from now. 

 

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This mornings light rainfall was enough to push CMI over the edge for the wettest February on record 6.12”. The previous record was 6.05” (1990). February snowfall was only 2.3” and this lackluster winter ends on a very mild note, official high of 62 yesterday and 55 today. 

 

3rd very boring winter in a row, and our streak of no WSW will most likely live on until next December, our current streak is 2 years and 5 days. 

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0.01" so far this eve.  HRRR continues to insist on a period of heavier showers later on tonight, so may end up with a half inch plus.  Precip will exit stage right before the chance to switch over to snow.  

Looking ahead our next big weather maker should be a band of showers sometime next Monday, with maybe some snow showers/flurries next Tue.

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14 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I can't believe how warm it is. Unofficially 60.3F at YYZ at last obs, which makes it the fourth warmest February day on record. Third place was back in Feb 2016. Crazy enough, the second warmest was 8 days ago on Feb 20th at 61.7F and the warmest ever was last year at 63.8F!!! This is nuts! The top 4 warmest February days on record have all occurred in the last 3 years! I was never a firm believer of this whole climate change ordeal, but the last couple of years have definitely changed my mind about that.  

When looking at this from a bigger perspective, every winter since 2010-11, aside from 13-14 and 14-15, has been way above average. Not even just a little above average. 11-12 was ridiculously warm, 12-13 was primarily warm aside from Feb 2013, 15-16 was incredibly warm, 16-17 was a no-show after December, and this year - after that thaw in January winters back was broken! Very rarely do you see record breaking SE ridge's back to back as we've seen in the last few winters. 13-14 and 14-15 are certainly looking like outliers in this new regime. I don't know if this correlates to the solar cycle, but moving forward we'll be entering into a period of low solar so we'll revisit this 5 years from now. 

 

Those 60F stats at YYZ are impressive, and my response is NOT about CC...but what a silly thing to say that you never believed in cc but 2 years changed your mind. So....based on what you typed....somehow 2010-11 AND 2017-18 ended up as way above average? How odd.

 

At DTW the last 10 winters DJF temp departure...the 10 year winter departure if -0.2F.

2008-09: -3.6

2009-10: -0.5

2010-11: -3.8

2011-12: +5.1

2012-13: +2.8

2013-14: -7.0

2014-15: -4.6

2015-16: +5.6

2016-17: +5.0

2017-18: -0.6

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4th wettest and tied for 10th snowiest Feb on record for Chicago...

Top 10 Wettest Februarys:
1. 5.56" - 1997
2. 5.10" - 1887
3. 4.74" - 1883
4. 4.64" - 2018
5. 4.28" - 1881
6. 3.90" - 1876
7. 3.84" - 1909
8. 3.72" - 1908
9. 3.53" - 2008
10. 3.52" - 2011

Top 10 Snowiest Februarys:
1. 29.0" - 2011
2. 27.8" - 1896
3. 26.8" - 2015
4. 26.2" - 1994
5. 22.6" - 1900
6. 22.5" - 2010
6. 22.5" - 1967
8. 21.8" - 2008
9. 21.1" - 1901
10. 20.3" - 2018
10. 20.3" - 2007

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