Frog Town Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 It's no secret that just about every signal for Cold is pointed at February. The Question is, will it be pure suppression, or could we get some snow? Ready, set, go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Not everything shows that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 How about an actual wet month? I mean, it is La Nina. I saw a stat from Skilling that over 60% of La Nina winters are wetter than average in Chicago, so that does leave a non-trivial 30-something percent that are drier. Doing some math, Chicago is going to need about 3.5" of precip in February to wipe out the Dec/Jan deficit, which may be a tough task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The monthly CFS has a similar look to what happened in December with temps. Of course whether this is on the right track and how we would get there are questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I myself like many others am hoping for a pattern change, this suppressed garbage is getting old, I have nickel and dimed my way to 9”, with the largest snowfall being 3.5”. Its been very dry as well, I wonder what if any implications the developing drought to our S/SW will have during the latter part of winter and early spring. My last winter storm warning is closing in on 2 years I believe it was 2/20/16 when they actually issued a blizzard watch for 3” of wind driven slop, major bust. Haven’t seen an exciting storm in almost 3 years, We missed out on the November 2015 storm for the most part. Thay being said the February 3rd/4th timeframe is certainly looking interesting. Gonna have to have a blockbuster February to make up the 2’ snowfall deficit in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 As long as the cold doesn’t stick around into March (which doesn’t seem likely) then I’ll be fine. First two weeks of Feb def look miserable though with a +PNA/-EPO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Have a strong hunch my area is going to see it's best winter stretch in over two years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 42 minutes ago, Baum said: Have a strong hunch my area is going to see it's best winter stretch in over two years... I wouldn't have said hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Sunday starting to look interesting on the 18z GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 This is what you call "cold creep" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 57 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Sunday starting to look interesting on the 18z GFS. lol Yeah, will be interesting to see if models continue this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah, will be interesting to see if models continue this trend. It's what gets us up in the morning, right? We all have issues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: It's what gets us up in the morning, right? We all have issues! Sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Jim-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Starting off the month cold at MSP. -4F here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The below zero wind chills this morning feels pretty cold compared to how it's been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The below zero wind chills this morning feels pretty cold compared to how it's been lately. Yea, I need to start paying attention to the local near term forecasts more. Driving into the office they said a low of 12 tonight....I was like wtf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a major pattern shift to warmth for pretty much the entire country by mid month. Looks even warmer than Feb 2017 if that’s possible... so much for a cold Feb if this pans out. ensembles are starting to back off on the cold a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Temperatures dropping through the teens tonight in Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Lost a bit more snow this morning now everything has frozen up as temperatures have plummeted towards 10ﾟ. Average depth about 1", which includes bare spots and deeper spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Tonight's sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 above this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 4:27 PM, cmillzz said: man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a major pattern shift to warmth for pretty much the entire country by mid month. Looks even warmer than Feb 2017 if that’s possible... so much for a cold Feb if this pans out. ensembles are starting to back off on the cold a bit too. Canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The GFS has backed off on the late run warm-up. Sorry, those palms are gonna feel the pain. This will be a well below normal month. The only thing that will be above average is my sled mileage. 8 to 10 days of riding this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Jonger said: The GFS has backed off on the late run warm-up. Sorry, those palms are gonna feel the pain. This will be a well below normal month. The only thing that will be above average is my sled mileage. 8 to 10 days of riding this month. LOL nope. Enjoy your 60s at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Maybe a case of delayed but not denied with the warmup later this month? Wouldn't be the first time the models jumped the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe a case of delayed but not denied with the warmup later this month? Wouldn't be the first time the models jumped the gun. Yep this is my thought, after Feb 23rd. By then the MJO will be in a phase favorable for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Yep this is my thought, after Feb 23rd. By then the MJO will be in a phase favorable for warmth.Been reading rumblings of an SPV split, but lots of uncertainty over what sort of influence that would have on the pattern and the timing of such influence. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Been reading rumblings of an SPV split, but lots of uncertainty over what sort of influence that would have on the pattern and the timing of such influence. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah I have seen that too, lets hope it splits half into Europe and half into Siberia because I will hard pass on a frigid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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