ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, SR Airglow said: Damn - was hoping they got into some banding overnight. Thanks though! Wawa will have their chances...they may do pretty well in these events coming up this week...their elevation will help on these southerly flow advection events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, SR Airglow said: Lots of 6-8" reports from SE CT - Groton/Mystic/Stonington/New London area seems to have done really well. Nice bust. 6.5 and this under the radar stuff is still accumulating. Best thing is 1 day of 40 won't melt all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wawa will have their chances...they may do pretty well in these events coming up this week...their elevation will help on these southerly flow advection events. You think elevation helps on Thursday? I’ve noticed the snow maps have higher amounts in hills and less in valley and on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 That heavy band seems to be sliding away... still decent snow 7” hrrr would argue another 1-2 of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn! That band was/is intense. Just got to the office. The most efficent little buggers accumulating. Was 3-4" 90min ago when I left the house. Gotta be pushing 6" now. Roads are atrocious. About as bad as you'll ever see for a minor event. Most untouched. School was not cancelled or delayed. I'm not sure that you can label it a "minor event" at surprise 4-6". My brother said the roads around Boston are an absolute traffic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Great storm where synoptics helped on supplement the models. That convection to the east wreaked havoc on them. ML Fronto ftw. Pleasantly surprised at how this overperformed. BOX did underplay it a bit but they did have low % for the higher totals so they were there. They should have put up Advisories though when the banding became apparent over RI and upgraded Bristol/Plymouth counties to Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it was more the QPF the models were horrendous with...they did get most of the key features correct which is why we kept saying "hold on, don't be a QPF queen just yet...there's midlevel banding sig showing up".....but then as you said, they stubbornly refused to eventually spit out the goods from a QPF standpoint. Then we started doubting ourselves....maybe the dry air was too much? Maybe the convection robbing moisture was real? Maybe, maybe, maybe....until we mostly caved and said "ok, maybe this really is only a 1-3 inch event for E/ESE MA and RI/SE CT"....when in reality, we had it right the first time, but we have so much confidence in NWP guidance to get the QPF right once we get inside 24 hours. Yup.. this is my personal demon. I'm sure all other Mets experience this ... but, usually at some point along a given saga of modeling leading to some interest in the charts, at some point or the other along those travails of uncertainty I will voice an internal monologue, if not even inform others, a description of events what will ultimately transpire, perfectly... It's after that point in time, that the f-up kicks in Things just get skewed ,,, obscured by unrelenting guidance and/or other's salient arguments et al ... eroding and eroding until that 'perfect' call is completely obliterated. Knowing when to stick with one's convictions - that's been my bane over the years. I just did this same damn antic with the ice storm the other day... I warned people ad nauseam not to bite on any guidance with that tuck junk and what did I do ? not 12 hours before the first 27 F knife cut into the thermometer house clear down to NW RI I was telling people how the models would probably not be that wrong that close in, and some times the conventional wisdom has to step aside ... WRONG! In this case, I'm sure we all saw the 1.5 deg lat/lon rule in effect at some point or the other, but threw hands because the models were unrelentingly stalwart in their 0 QPF. That's amazing ... to be THAT specifically wrong about one key specific aspect. It's like the models scored a 90 on the test but everybody fails? almost comical really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Mid level magic wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 This is a full on snowstorm. Winds have been gusting over 20mph blowing this everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Nice band is ripping through Wareham/Carver.... waiting for it to crash over me. Snow has picked up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Nice little secondary band out along 495 here...getting a good burst to add onto the snow. Maybe we can squeeze out 5 inches. The goods are lining up now for PYM back to EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Great storm where synoptics helped on supplement the models. That convection to the east wreaked havoc on them. ML Fronto ftw. Pleasantly surprised at how this overperformed. BOX did underplay it a bit but they did have low % for the higher totals so they were there. They should have put up Advisories though when the banding became apparent over RI and upgraded Bristol/Plymouth counties to Warnings. Yeah... I don't like to get into the habit of carping on NWS staff... As Oceanwx will attest, they are sort of understaffed these days and the increasing reliance on automation and so forth (too) isn't helping. Get a computer to make the human distinction (which this required...) with the intuition/synoptics is a tall order... So, they have some operational limitations in some scenarios that probably didn't/doesn't parlay well in all instances.. That said, when I read their statement yesterday that someone excerpt for the forum here ... they seemed to be very model-reliant... Like almost entirely.. I thought at the time they were not discussing ... perhaps then not considering, any of the other deeper args with mid level forcing and the stuff we're recapitulating here. All of which was evident yesterday. Still in the end, ... heh..there's no crystal ball. I am not going to sit here and say that never in history of the world has a v-max traversed 1.5 deg lat/lon SE of a point and nothing happened there. Certainty in the business ... it's the path of least resistance to a destination of greatest regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said: It was clearly an overperformer for many, not sure why you're trying to call people out on this area being this far NW when the general idea of it being snowier was correct for most areas from the 84 corridor and points SE. We were always on the edge with this and waking up to a white ground and snow falling is somewhat of a vicotory. Just calling out one individual in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup.. this is my personal demon. I'm sure all other Mets experience this ... but, usually at some point along a given saga of modeling leading to some interest in the charts, at some point or the other along those travails of uncertainty I will voice an internal monologue, if not even inform others, a description of events what will ultimately transpire, perfectly... It's after that point in time, that the f-up kicks in Things just get skewed ,,, obscured by unrelenting guidance and/or other's salient arguments et al ... eroding and eroding until that 'perfect' call is completely obliterated. Knowing when to stick with one's convictions - that's been my bane over the years. I just did this same damn antic with the ice storm the other day... I warned people ad nauseam not to bite on any guidance with that tuck junk and what did I do ? not 12 hours before the first 27 F knife cut into the thermometer house clear down to NW RI I was telling people how the models would probably not be that wrong that close in, and some times the conventional wisdom has to step aside ... WRONG! In this case, I'm sure we all saw the 1.5 deg lat/lon rule in effect at some point or the other, but threw hands because the models were unrelentingly stalwart in their 0 QPF. That's amazing ... to be THAT specifically wrong about one key specific aspect. It's like the models scored a 90 on the test but everybody fails? almost comical really... Absolutely. I think working in a team environment can really help in this regard... I'd give yourself more credit on the ice-storm. You at least raised all the red flags, lowering confidence on the torch the models were advertising... Throwing out the flags again is something that can produce more favorable results in a team environment where everyone can put their heads together and dig into the "caution" aspects. I think it's easier to lose conviction when its just "you" --as in one person-- versus short term guidance. This at least, has been my problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Just calling out one individual in particular. Why are you calling anyone out? Everyone in CT had at least an inch except your area . Sucks to be you . Glad we don’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are you calling anyone out? Everyone in CT had at least an inch except you. Sucks to be you . Glad we don’t live there Your now everyone, sucks your snowfall calls are wrong time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I busted massively on this one. 2-4" was my call for SE MA. 1-2" from the CT E to I-95. Lollis around the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I busted massively on this one. 2-4" was my call for SE MA. 1-2" from the CT E to I-95. Lollis around the Canal. What are you measuring now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Shocked! Over performer for sure! My first post on this storm will be to admit I underestimated it... from NWS maps and almost all TV/public forecasters, seems I was not alone. We all sometimes rely on models too much. Awesome stuff this morning, great flakes and decent rates. Also definitely has a feel of ocean enhancement here in Boston. When I get a chance later today, I want to go back and see what models had a best handle of these features (from Box AFD): "For much of the overnight, the precip was separated into two distinct bands the furthest W, with an area of deformation associated with a weak closed H7 low. While the further E was associated with the H92-H85 LLJ convergence. These two have finally joined forces as the H7 low shifted E and is now a focused f-gen band across mainly SE MA and RI." I know ORH and CTRain and others mentioned the H7 low, and Ray mentioned it on his blog. Curious what models had a best handle, not just qpf output (which generally was terrible even 0z last night) but the evolution of banding features we had overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: What are you measuring now? I'm at work in Wrentham so no idea. Just going off of what you and TB have been reporting. Gotta be 6-7" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm at work in Wrentham so no idea. Just going off of what you and TB have been reporting. Gotta be 6-7" now. Yea Taunton has been in a nice band for a few hours. I measured an average of 6.5" around 830..gotta be approaching 8" by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My first post on this storm will be to admit I underestimated it... from NWS maps and almost all TV/public forecasters, seems I was not alone. We all sometimes rely on models too much. Awesome stuff this morning, great flakes and decent rates. Also definitely has a feel of ocean enhancement here in Boston. When I get a chance later today, I want to go back and see what models had a best handle of these features (from Box AFD): "For much of the overnight, the precip was separated into two distinct bands the furthest W, with an area of deformation associated with a weak closed H7 low. While the further E was associated with the H92-H85 LLJ convergence. These two have finally joined forces as the H7 low shifted E and is now a focused f-gen band across mainly SE MA and RI." I know ORH and CTRain and others mentioned the H7 low, and Ray mentioned it on his blog. Curious what models had a best handle, not just qpf output (which generally was terrible even 0z last night) but the evolution of banding features we had overnight. I thought the GFS did well with it. RAP too. NAM also showed it, but really kept the best QPF with the more low level WAA. Classic model bias there. But it goes above H7. You want the good frontogenic forcing to help induce lift in the DGZ, which was above H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Yea Taunton has been in a nice band for a few hours. I measured an average of 6.5" around 830..gotta be approaching 8" by now So I may be low-balling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Listen not one to say this usually, but NWS behind the 8 ball this storm. Once reports and radar indicated heavy snow warnings should have flew, also they totally missed the coastal flooding. Tough forecast but once the nut busted they need to get things right. 5am this morning people's phones should have been buzzing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6.5", still accumulating, although not like earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 you had a feeling forecasts were going to bust low when that mid level band was already setting up to the NW around 8pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: you had a feeling forecasts were going to bust low when that mid level band was already setting up to the NW around 8pm last night. Yeah I was kind of surprised how much I was snowing in that band...the worry was dry air in the midlevels...but I was going to town at like 9-10pm already in that band. That boded well for the rest of the stuff that would come in later during the event. I still didn't think this would happen though...not this much of a bust. I was thinking "oh maybe someone gets lucky with 4" or so."...not 8-9" lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Listen not one to say this usually, but NWS behind the 8 ball this storm. Once reports and radar indicated heavy snow warnings should have flew, also they totally missed the coastal flooding. Tough forecast but once the nut busted they need to get things right. 5am this morning people's phones should have been buzzing Yea. That happens with okx alot on busted forecasts in either direction...Always lagging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was kind of surprised how much I was snowing in that band...the worry was dry air in the midlevels...but I was going to town at like 9-10pm already in that band. That boded well for the rest of the stuff that would come in later during the event. I still didn't think this would happen though...not this much of a bust. Agreed..this was a bigger bust than normal. I was thinking maybe 3-5" was in the cards or maybe a spot 6" as opposed to the 2-4" the NWS had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6+ in Brooklyn. A bit over 2 here in Manchester. Definitely 91 East/84 SE kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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