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Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.


John1122

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Just got in from my daughter’s basketball game. 35 with light snow now here NE of Morristown. The slight climb from town up to where I live did not disappoint, as the temp dropped another degree on the truck from 37 to 36 and we went from a mix to mostly all snow. Now down to 35 as I type and it’s a nice wet snow.

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MRX ain’t given up on this.


.DISCUSSION...
Latest observations indicating that cold front has now shifted
east toward the TN-NC border with the cold air pushing into the
area rather quickly. Observations across the area are showing a
5-7 degree temperature drop just in the last hour and sites along
the Cumberland Plateau are beginning to report a transition from
rain to snow. A look at regional road cameras indicates that
nothing is accumulating yet. However, still expecting much of the
advisory area to begin to see some accumulations over the next
2-3 hours as temperatures finally drop down to near 30 degrees.

Forecast still on track for much of the Valley pcpn to end late
tonight with areas of SW VA and higher elevations of East TN
finally seeing snow taper off by morning. The question of how much
snow accumulation still remains as temperatures continue to fall
into rain soaked roadways and grassy areas. However, either way,
snow covered or ice covered roadways are going to lead to very
hazardous road conditions overnight and into tomorrow morning as
temperatures reach into the lower to middle 20s across most of the
area and down into the teens across SW Virginia. Travelers should
exercise extreme caution overnight and for the Friday morning
commute as snow covered or black ice could make driving
treacherous.


.

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34 now dp is 33. Light snow. Kinda a slushy/watery mix on the glass picnic table. Elevation here is 1,450ft. Town is around 1300. That extra bit makes a difference sometimes. Funny thing is the highest point in the county is just under 2000ft and it’s right in the middle of town. Crockett’s Ridge. I would imagine it’s probably accumulating there right now. 

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Finally transitioned to a rain/snow mix here, which is nice I guess.  I'm showing 38 degrees.  So far this has lined up pretty well with what the SREF has been suggesting all week in terms of timing, temps, and "snow".  You have to take that Total-SNO value with a grain of salt.  It certainly doesn't indicate accumulation, just that that much snow might fall from the sky.  I'd say for the lazy weather enthusiast that doesn't always have time to look at the big picture, it's the best shorter range tool to watch.  That and the Iowa State meteograms for 7 days out GFS/NAM/RAP with Cobb.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml

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