John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The models have been extremely consistent with this and have taken it from 240-252 hours out to now 126 hours out until the Western forum begins feeling the effects. Tonight's model suite features heavy snow for a large portion of the forum on all models. The GFS brings this per the 1-28 00Z. The GFS has been consistent with heavier snow north of 40 on nearly every run for 5 days in a row. Quite a few of these runs sees a nice bit of accumulation well south of 40 as well. The Canadian was late to the party and is still waffling around. It painted the entire region almost with heavy snow during it's 1-27 runs. Today it moved the snow axis very far north at 12z, the 00z quickly brought it back, this time west of the Plateau and north of 40. The Euro has been pretty consistent with this as well. It actually moved towards the GFS a few days ago and for the most part has held to it's solution for several days as well. Tonight's 00z run was it's most robust into Tennessee in several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 NWS WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 I'm really curious about this statement by MRX. Quote Still the models are tweaking the timing/strength of this system, but the ECMWF has been the most consistent. The GFS is starting to come into alignment with the ECMWF and showing some more snow in the higher elevations of the forecast area. Amounts are real difficult to pin down at this time as a lot will depend on the exact temperatures before/during/after the front moves through The GFS has been rock steady with this for almost a week and the Euro came to it. Do they pay attention over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 Apparently the GFS was waiting for this thread to start. Significantly weakens this system this run. Maybe 1-2 inches along the Plateau areas, northern East Tennessee and SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 The Canadian doubled down, increased snow totals in some areas out west and moved the snow a little south and east of it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 lets see if the euro blinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 12z ICON holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 This has that used car salesmen feel to it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 The Euro followed the GFS again. Insignificant system outside of the mountains and SWVA. Still a few days to look obviously, but it looks like terrible luck again may be in the offing for snow lovers in the eastern valley. Not sure how something can be so consistently modeled for almost a week and then just go poof. It's enough to make me consider giving up weather watching for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The Euro followed the GFS again. Insignificant system outside of the mountains and SWVA. Still a few days to look obviously, but it looks like terrible luck again may be in the offing for snow lovers in the eastern valley. Not sure how something can be so consistently modeled for almost a week and then just go poof. It's enough to make me consider giving up weather watching for a while. It's enough to make me consider building a snow making machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Yeah...let's hold off on storm threat threads prior to 2/6 (or until the cold locks itself into place). As Carver mentioned...the pattern should be favorable for fun & games as we get further into the month. For now, GFS seems she's back to her Lucy ways again. For eternal optimists, you'd want to lean on the fact the GFS is notorious for losing systems in that D3-6 range; however, for realists like me...and the majority of this forum...Euro agreement can be a kiss of death. We shall see. If you wanna not feel down today, think long term over short term. The Euro has been bad this winter as well. But this warranted a thread. It has been the most consistently modeled storm threat of the entire winter season. This morning when I started this thread every global model showed a significant winter event for the region, some for the 6th consecutive day. It is less than 5 days out from the forum region and there's another potential threat a few days later. This thread allows for separation of systems. Whether it comes to pass or not is another matter. It's not a matter of cold though, the last run of the GFS and Euro sheared the system out and cut off all the available moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Yeah...the thread is a good call. Not sure I would stick a fork in it yet either. The wx models are bouncing all over the place....and I forget my big rule every single winter season. When there is VERY cold air in NA(or getting ready to be here), the models really struggle. I mean...I was ready to throw in the towel on February after calling for cold during that time frame for much of January. Now that look is back on the GFS and EPS. But the models went through the same progression as December...had it, lost it, had it. I think Jeff had some good words a few days back...all of that cold in Siberia has changed the NH 500 pattern. It may be that is about to sort itself out. Anyway, without blocking in the Atlantic there is nothing to slow down these systems and make them an easy call. Timing is very difficult which makes a forecast like hitting a moving target. Some winters, 5-7 day forecasts (w blocking in the Atlantic) are reasonably good. But this EPO/PNA ridge pattern is making things tough in the short, medium, and long range...man, it is tough, tough, tough. I enjoy it though, but these patterns are just difficult. So, good call on the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Latest WPC, For at least 2.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 At the rate this thing is going today, it may not even rain. I don't know how much money they spend upgrading models over the last few years, but they haven't gotten better. 5 years ago if the GFS, Euro and Canadian agreed on a storm inside of 5 days, you could go buy a sled. Now they can agree in that time frame and a day or two later there's not even a storm on the map. Winter may return, not going to trust any model, period, any longer though. I'll see it falling from the sky and believe it then. Until then the largest by far 2 winter snow drought of the past 80 years at minimum, continues unabated on the Northern Plateau, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well the Euro is back on board for the Eastern areas. 2-3 inches in the Knoxville area . 3-4 on the Plateau and Northeast areas. 4-5 SWVA. 2-4 in SEKy. Mountain areas get 6-8 inches. I'll believe it when I see it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Am I just not seeing the MRX morning disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Am I just not seeing the MRX morning disco? Quote 696 FXUS64 KMRX 290751 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 251 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Today, a mid to upper level trough axis will be crossing the area, with dry air advection eroding morning clouds and leaving mostly to partly sunny skies. A secondary 500 mb vort max on the back side of the trough along with a cold front will move into the area late in the day. This will bring a surge of cold air and moisture to northern parts of the area beginning around 00Z. Will continue to have likely PoPs after that time. A 20-25 kts upslope 850 mb flow will enhance QPF in the higher elevations of SW VA and East TN, with snow accumulations still expected to be in the 1-3 inch range across the mountains. Lower elevations of SW VA and NE TN are expected to have less than one inch. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue unchanged. Light snow showers or flurries may continue into Tuesday morning, mainly in the mountains. Decreasing moisture depth should end accumulating snow by midday. Highs will be much colder Tuesday, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s south. .LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)... Dry atmosphere will be over us as the ridge to our south continues to move to the west. Warmest days of the forecast will be on Wednesday and Thursday with highs near, or just above normal for this time of year. Front is still forecasted to move in from the northwest and sweep through Thursday through Friday. Forecast models are keeping the coldest and wettest air to our northeast along with the higher snowfall amounts. In our area the moisture is much more limited and temperatures are currently not forecasted to drop well below freezing until the precipitation moves out. This is adding up to be a bit of a tricky forecast, but right now the most likely scenario is snowfall in the higher terrain and some making it into the northern Valley of Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. Slightly better chances for widespread snowfall happens with a secondary front expected to move through towards the end of the weekend...But models tend to overdo snowfall amounts this far out, so am not quite ready believe the model output at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Thanks, Shawn. Must be an issue w/ cache or my brain. LOL. Could be both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Must be a hard job in the in the Valley where we are in a battle zone in the winter time to please the public as much as the weather changes each run to run on the models,especially making a long range forecast. National Weather Service Nashville TN 542 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Surprise, surprise...the long term models have sped up the Thursday/Friday system and changed the game yet again! More on that below after talking about the short term through Wednesday. Models are still indicating potential for rain and snow mainly for the northern Plateau this afternoon and evening thanks to a potent Midwest trough digging further south with each model run. A cold front will move through the area as well, which will make Tuesday a bit cooler than we have been seeing over the last week or so. Some light accumulation is possible on the northern Plateau, but this wave is also increasing in speed so the chances for accumulation will be short lived this evening just before midnight. Some flurries may continue just after midnight, but current model consensus has dry conditions returning to the Plateau before sunrise. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be dry as a brief upper ridge moves in. Temps will be cooler on Tuesday but will recover quickly on Wednesday with the return of southerly flow at the surface. Winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusting to around 20 mph will help increase high temps to the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon. This may decrease min RH values in the afternoon to 20 to 30 percent, which would raise fire weather concerns. Now, for the Thursday/Friday upper trough, the GFS has sped up the system quite a bit while the ECMWF has increased speed just a little. Rain may begin in the northwest zones Thursday morning, and spread across the area during the late morning and afternoon. The cold front will start working its way through the mid state during the afternoon and evening, which will start the decline of temperatures across the area. Both models now have the main part of the upper trough north of the area, which only allows for precip chances to impact the mid state through midnight or early morning hours Friday. The ECMWF with its slightly slower speed has longer chances of QPF over the area and comes to an end before sunrise. If this trend continues, it would get the highest precip chances out of the area before the surface is cold enough to see snow for most of the area. Since models continue to change their tune with this event, did not back off too much from mixed precipitation, and kept the rain/snow mention for the northern 2/3 of the mid state late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Models could flip back on the next few runs to a colder solution just as easily as keeping this faster/warmer trend going, so not going to rule out frozen precip chances just yet. The remainder of Friday and Saturday look dry before another trough looks to bring more chances for precip Sunday and possibly into Monday. Long term models remain quite different for this event not only on timing of the wave but also duration of precip chances as well as temperatures in the low levels. For now, kept consensus trends going which has rain chances during the day Sunday, and slight chances for mixed precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning. Uncertainty is obviously high with a very large model spread, so will need to see what the next runs show to try and get a better idea for next weekend`s potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The 12z GFS and CMC now depict a system following right on the heels of the Thursday/Friday system. That has my interest, especially since MRX mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The 12z GFS only had five opportunities for snow during the first 252 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS and CMC now depict a system following right on the heels of the Thursday/Friday system. That has my interest, especially since MRX mentioned it. Agree that one is more interesting, although if the CMC is marginal on temps, leaves me a bit skeptical, considering its usual bias of being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Agree that one is more interesting, although if the CMC is marginal on temps, leaves me a bit skeptical, considering its usual bias of being cold. ....and then its usual bias of being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro still says a couple of inches from this on the Plateau, NE Tn, SWVA, SEKy. Also a couple to 3 or 4inches early next week for more of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Sref Means for the event while still ongoing but beginning to get into the first event for Thursday. TYS: .5" - Big Dog at 3.9" TRI: 1.09" - Big Dog at 4.10" BNA: .27" - Big Dog at 2.07 CHA: .16" - Big Dog at 3.06" CSV: .37" - Big Dog at 3.94" LOZ (London/Corbin KY): .51" - Big Dog at 4.37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 What is the time frame we are looking at for this storm. Sent from my SCH-I535PP using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, uncheelfan said: What is the time frame we are looking at for this storm. Sent from my SCH-I535PP using Tapatalk Welcome to the Forum! Time frame really depends on model but generally Thursday night/Friday morning for winter precip, rain ahead of that generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 After showing 0 snow at 06z and 12z today, the 18z and now 00z are slowly beginning to return snow to Eastern areas. Maybe it'll come towards the Euro more tomorrow or the Euro will head towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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