Dan76 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Really? You didn’t have any accumulation in the last 2 events? I had 2.5” .3” and .3” today. Nope grass turned white than switched to rain not even .5 I plow and salt for big contractors and have not been out since the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro is more optimistic in the LR, if the MJO traverses through phase 8-1 we should see colder temperatures. However that doesn't mean it'll snow. The door will be closing fast in a few weeks. You do know that if we get a favorable pattern, it can snow into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You do know that if we get a favorable pattern, it can snow into April. This is an over-exploited talking point. If we get a *really* favorable pattern, it can snow into June, but we all know the odds are against that. It's amusing how the forum is split roughly evenly between people who start the spring narrative at the end of January and those who try to extend the shelf life of winter by multiple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: This is an over-exploited talking point. If we get a *really* favorable pattern, it can snow into June, but we all know the odds are against that. It's amusing how the forum is split roughly evenly between people who start the spring narrative at the end of January and those who try to extend the shelf life of winter by multiple months. Yes it is amusing, but this looks like curtains for this winter it ain't snowing in April in this kinda pattern. I've only seen one good snow in April and that was 82, a true cold snowstorm. April 2003 was more like a late March storm, heavy and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 57 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yes it is amusing, but this looks like curtains for this winter it ain't snowing in April in this kinda pattern. I've only seen one good snow in April and that was 82, a true cold snowstorm. April 2003 was more like a late March storm, heavy and wet. Earthlight likes the pattern at the end of this month into March with high latitude blocking to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Yes it is amusing, but this looks like curtains for this winter it ain't snowing in April in this kinda pattern. I've only seen one good snow in April and that was 82, a true cold snowstorm. April 2003 was more like a late March storm, heavy and wet. FYI - the current SSW event unfolding has the potential to turn the current pattern upside down in a few weeks .….. One of the most famous SSW events in DEC 84 created an historic cold wave several weeks later in January. So the current pattern is not going to be the same pattern we experience a month from now... Most of the area's snowfall is still above normal for the season and it looks promising that we will end up at least normal and potentially above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight likes the pattern at the end of this month into March with high latitude blocking to develop. if we had some blocking today we all would have been digging out right now...…….has been the missing ingredient - and an SSW induced Arctic outbreak - with the southern stream active and some blocking could produce a very memorable stretch of winter weather around here in a couple weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: if we had some blocking today we all would have been digging out right now...…….has been the missing ingredient - and an SSW induced Arctic outbreak - with the southern stream active and some blocking could produce a very memorable stretch of winter weather around here in a couple weeks... We haven't had blocking in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 hours ago, Juliancolton said: This is an over-exploited talking point. If we get a *really* favorable pattern, it can snow into June, but we all know the odds are against that. It's amusing how the forum is split roughly evenly between people who start the spring narrative at the end of January and those who try to extend the shelf life of winter by multiple months. Honestly. The period from March 1 - March 10 is easier to see a snow event in coastal spots than is December 1 - December 10. The main exception would be the snow sticking to pavement during daylight hours. Once you get past March 10 the chances start slowly dropping and after 3/20-3/22 they drop very rapidly. For whatever reason climo does show a secondary max in early April again where the daily snow records are higher than say 3/25-3/31. Given its just a 150 year record period it may just be a result of randomness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Honestly. The period from March 1 - March 10 is easier to see a snow event in coastal spots than is December 1 - December 10. The main exception would be the snow sticking to pavement during daylight hours. Once you get past March 10 the chances start slowly dropping and after 3/20-3/22 they drop very rapidly. For whatever reason climo does show a secondary max in early April again where the daily snow records are higher than say 3/25-3/31. Given its just a 150 year record period it may just be a result of randomness Not just speaking snow wise but February and March are both very volatile months storm wise, we have seen some huge storms during both months whether it be rain, sleet, snow or a combination of all three. Obviously snow sticking to pavement does become more of a concern later in the season like you mentioned above but if the air/ground is cold enough and the precipitation is heavy enough that usually isn't much of an issue even during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12 hours ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight likes the pattern at the end of this month into March with high latitude blocking to develop. Hope so. bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 hours ago, NEG NAO said: FYI - the current SSW event unfolding has the potential to turn the current pattern upside down in a few weeks .….. One of the most famous SSW events in DEC 84 created an historic cold wave several weeks later in January. So the current pattern is not going to be the same pattern we experience a month from now... Most of the area's snowfall is still above normal for the season and it looks promising that we will end up at least normal and potentially above normal. I really hope so. Yesterday's cold rain was really depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 8 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Not just speaking snow wise but February and March are both very volatile months storm wise, we have seen some huge storms during both months whether it be rain, sleet, snow or a combination of all three. Obviously snow sticking to pavement does become more of a concern later in the season like you mentioned above but if the air/ground is cold enough and the precipitation is heavy enough that usually isn't much of an issue even during the day. March hasn't produced too many big snow events in recent memory, but snow to sleet events or to ZR do happen and they can be fun, albeit dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 its almost over kids,,,better start snowing real soon or we might as well be putting grass seed down,,,,,,,these models and patterns change on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: its almost over kids,,,better start snowing real soon or we might as well be putting grass seed down,,,,,,,these models and patterns change on a daily basis go put your grass seed down real soon - that will all but guarantee record snowfall the next 6 weeks or more....anyways - if anyone here is trying to make sense of NYC winters review this snowfall historical data chart link for NYC and try to make sense out of it year to year and month to month http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 go put your grass seed down real soon - that will all but guarantee record snowfall the next 6 weeks or more....anyways - if anyone here is trying to make sense of NYC winters review this snowfall historical data chart link for NYC and try to make sense out of it year to year and month to monthhttp://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdfPut the seed on top of snow. Melting snow actually pulls seed into.the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: Put the seed on top of snow. Melting snow actually pulls seed into.the ground! This seems like it would make it easier for birds to eat the seed and cause the seed to rot if the snow sticks around longer than anticipated, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 12 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Honestly. The period from March 1 - March 10 is easier to see a snow event in coastal spots than is December 1 - December 10. The main exception would be the snow sticking to pavement during daylight hours. Once you get past March 10 the chances start slowly dropping and after 3/20-3/22 they drop very rapidly. For whatever reason climo does show a secondary max in early April again where the daily snow records are higher than say 3/25-3/31. Given its just a 150 year record period it may just be a result of randomness It's not just that though, we also seem to have more cold outbreaks in the first week of April than the last week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 hours ago, weatherpruf said: March hasn't produced too many big snow events in recent memory, but snow to sleet events or to ZR do happen and they can be fun, albeit dangerous. I think once into March, a 4" kind of event would be all one should expect at the coast even from a favorable pattern. After 3/20 chances drop rapidtly as SG said but once a decade you can get an early April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 4 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I really hope so. Yesterday's cold rain was really depressing. cold rain actually feels colder than snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nice snowstorm on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This seems like it would make it easier for birds to eat the seed and cause the seed to rot if the snow sticks around longer than anticipated, no?Actually not. That was my thinking also. A couple of those Green Thumb/Pro Dirt guys have mentioned that process over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 German and CMC show a snow event for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 We can definitely see snow events around NYC in early March. The 3/14 event last year would've been all snow in NYC had the track been 75 miles further east. I'd say after 3/15 it becomes more difficult. April is obviously quite tough but it can still happen. In 2003 for those who remember, we had a significant event on 4/7 that dropped 6-7" in Long Beach, right to the shore, and it stuck to pavement at midday. The next day however it was all gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Big red flag. Gefs is way more amped than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Big red flag. Gefs is way more amped than the op. Well the op had nothing for us. Cmc looks amazing and so does navgem nobody is talking about this event that’s what’s amazing to me. Red flag good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Euro is also a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is also a nice hit Yes it is...mainly Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 EURO is almost an inch QPF of SNOW on weather.us Would like to see 850 and 925 temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This would be one event that you hope doesn't follow the seasonal trend with the R/S line moving further north in later runs. Nao and AO are becoming favorable We might get lucky here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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