purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Looks like a ton of rain coming for the coast in February. Active pattern but everything cuts. I'm inclined to agree with you for the first ~10 days of the month. -PNA will favor a robust SE ridge. There is a ton of spread in how that evolves later in the month, but have to agree with Don et al on things potentially turning colder/snowier for the back half of the month given the current MJO forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: I'm inclined to agree with you for the first ~10 days of the month. -PNA will favor a robust SE ridge. There is a ton of spread in how that evolves later in the month, but have to agree with Don et al on things potentially turning colder/snowier for the back half of the month given the current MJO forecasts. PNA is forecast to be positive and climbing during this time period...Where do you see a -PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: PNA is forecast to be positive and climbing during this time period...Where do you see a -PNA? this is a WSI product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Too early to tell Exactly Some people never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: this is a WSI product. Based off the eps which have been horrible with the pattern. To be fair , every model have sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, Animal said: Morning afd from mt Holly nws is calling for an all snow event Sunday into Monday morning nw zones. “Decent dump of snow” is the term used. looks like the 1st 10 days of February central and eastern PA and the New York State will finally outperform the coastal areas as the WAR causes the storms in the upcoming pattern to cut directly over I- 95 or to the west - MJO is partially to blame as the coast will have to wait till it reaches phase 8 and beyond to receive anything more then a couple of slushy inches on the front side of these systems that end up being quickly washed away...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 should also point out the latest forecasts from nearly all guidance are rapidly weakening the MJO before it gets to phase 8. all of the above said, confidence is quite low. in my opinion, interior locations and especially new england could do well in february in terms of snowfall. i'm not yet sold on a snowy february for the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Hey see what you can do to lessen the impact on the interior, I have to drive round trip to Chicago for some meetings on the 14th and 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: should also point out the latest forecasts from nearly all guidance are rapidly weakening the MJO before it gets to phase 8. all of the above said, confidence is quite low. in my opinion, interior locations and especially new england could do well in february in terms of snowfall. i'm not yet sold on a snowy february for the city proper. Plus the epo not as negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 CMC - we can only hope...…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 hours ago, purduewx80 said: should also point out the latest forecasts from nearly all guidance are rapidly weakening the MJO before it gets to phase 8. all of the above said, confidence is quite low. in my opinion, interior locations and especially new england could do well in february in terms of snowfall. i'm not yet sold on a snowy february for the city proper. If we don't get into Phase 8-1-2 I agree we are in trouble on the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Euro is way too warm for anything but rain for the I-95 corridor, and then most areas dry slot as the SLP tracks over Western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Cobb Snow Method has 3 systems in the next 10 days, and gives us 2.2" of RAIN and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 That’s wrong information. The Canadian is the most amped and coldest. I think the cmc depiction only gets stronger and it verifies i95 special!No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The waves are getting weaker on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, The Plowsman said: On 2/1/2018 at 5:22 AM, Animal said: Morning afd from mt Holly nws is calling for an all snow event Sunday into Monday morning nw zones. “Decent dump of snow” is the term used. Not gonna happen! Geeeez Mt Holly is now calling for a “moderate” accumulation in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Not gonna cut it for Monday if this is a strict northern Vort feature... we need this to dig, and it ain’t happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Nam stays warm like other guidance as the primary runs into Canada... Far interior snow job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam stays warm like other guidance as the primary runs into Canada... Far interior snow job GFS has a potential 3-5" paste job for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam stays warm like other guidance as the primary runs into Canada... Far interior snow job 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not gonna cut it for Monday if this is a strict northern Vort feature... we need this to dig, and it ain’t happening Exactly, and right now with the strength of the MJO in phase 6 there just is nothing lined up to force this to dig as we had seen earlier in the winter. I still am under the impression that at some point in the second to third week of February there will be a window of opportunity, the pattern is active and looks to remain as such, but hopefully if the MJO does break into 8/1 then we may see some help for the coast. Until this happens I am not enamored with any snow chances for the I95 corridor of great significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Exactly, and right now with the strength of the MJO in phase 6 there just is nothing lined up to force this to dig as we had seen earlier in the winter. I still am under the impression that at some point in the second to third week of February there will be a window of opportunity, the pattern is active and looks to remain as such, but hopefully if the MJO does break into 8/1 then we may see some help for the coast. Until this happens I am not enamored with any snow chances for the I95 corridor of great significance. We can hold out for a GGEM like solution, weak waves in general, weak coastal forms further south than other guidance over an area of stronger convention separate from the main southern Vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We can hold out for a GGEM like solution, weak waves in general, weak coastal forms further south than other guidance over an area of stronger convention separate from the main southern Vort The bigger problem I see in all this is high pressure is beginning to push down into the central US instead of into SE Canada like when we had the stronger EPO blocking and Positive PNA. Without those, the HP can’t press into SE Canada. Of course, well timed anything can find a way to produce but in the grand scheme of things it’s like we went from rolling a dozen die hoping for snake eyes to rolling two die hoping for the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Models are trending colder for midweek storm. CMC is very nice for inland areas and even close for the coast Gfs is nice for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I think next week's storm trends colder. EPO is going negative and the pna is also rising .https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Lol..if only GGEM wasn’t trash, drops 20+ over next 5 days up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think next week's storm trends colder. EPO is going negative and the pna is also rising .https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Music to the weenie in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol..if only GGEM wasn’t trash, drops 20+ over next 5 days up here It's no worse than the goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Euro, GGEM, GFS, Ukie all have 3+ north and west of 84, as usual in these set ups, interstate 84 looks to be the cut again for next weeks storm, euro the warmest as 850s torch with the northern stream running primary through WNY, as oppose to other guidance, a weaker offshore low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro, GGEM, GFS, Ukie all have 3+ north and west of 84, as usual in these set ups, interstate 84 looks to be the cut again for next weeks storm, euro the warmest as 850s torch with the northern stream running primary through WNY, as oppose to other guidance, a weaker offshore low Which storm are you referring to? Sun-mon event or midweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, snywx said: Which storm are you referring to? Sun-mon event or midweek? Mid week, the only thing that looks cold enough to keep us all snow or at least mostly is the ggem and 3knam for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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