February 2018 Model thread

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looks like it went solidly north with the upcoming storm, but the coast is close to going over to rain. To me there’s just way too much that has to go right for anyone to start getting excited yet. This could easily trend to something that favors I-90. 

It won’t shift more than maybe 50 Miles further west.  The pattern is simply moving too fast 

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It won’t shift more than maybe 50 Miles further west.  The pattern is simply moving too fast 

It's a swfe favors north of i90

[MJO812]

0z Euro is way flatter than the Gfs

 

Low exits off the del marva

 

Light snow up here

[MJO812]

Great hit on the cmc

 

Further south than 12z and less amped than the gfs.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I nominate this for the worst post ever on this forum.

Please explain why our last chance for snow is March 1-10.

Potentially strong Atlantic blocking pattern sets in courtesy of SSW with MJO traversing the most favorable phases along with a fading Nina. 

Snow climo is still somewhat favorable moreso than even February for a Nina for March 1-15. 

You can cry all you want but most of us still haven't seen accumulating/significant snow since early January, count yourself lucky for living where you do to get your near climo totals.

Most of us have been told if not guaranteed that a cold, snowy February was on tap last month despite unfavorable Nina climo, how's that coming along? 

February is easily on track to have well AN temps with BN snowfall. If we avoid snow altogether this month (very possible) and see +3 or better departures then Met Winter would average AN temps with BN snowfall for the majority of this forum. 

[The Plowsman]

Can someone pin/sticky this like the Feb Obs pls?

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Potentially strong Atlantic blocking pattern sets in courtesy of SSW with MJO traversing the most favorable phases along with a fading Nina. 

Snow climo is still somewhat favorable moreso than even February for a Nina for March 1-15. 

You can cry all you want but most of us still haven't seen accumulating/significant snow since early January, count yourself lucky for living where you do to get your near climo totals.

Most of us have been told if not guaranteed that a cold, snowy February was on tap last month despite unfavorable Nina climo, how's that coming along? 

February is easily on track to have well AN temps with BN snowfall. If we avoid snow altogether this month (very possible) and see +3 or better departures then Met Winter would average AN temps with BN snowfall for the majority of this forum. 

I saw snow earlier this month

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Potentially strong Atlantic blocking pattern sets in courtesy of SSW with MJO traversing the most favorable phases along with a fading Nina. 

Snow climo is still somewhat favorable moreso than even February for a Nina for March 1-15. 

You can cry all you want but most of us still haven't seen accumulating/significant snow since early January, count yourself lucky for living where you do to get your near climo totals.

Most of us have been told if not guaranteed that a cold, snowy February was on tap last month despite unfavorable Nina climo, how's that coming along? 

February is easily on track to have well AN temps with BN snowfall. If we avoid snow altogether this month (very possible) and see +3 or better departures then Met Winter would average AN temps with BN snowfall for the majority of this forum. 

It’s posts like that, that are ruining this forum. Making a blanket statement saying our last snow chance is March 1-10th more then a month out is ridiculous. Even the best long range forecaster would never make a statement like that. It’s like saying in mid August our last chance for 90s will be September 1-10th. See how silly that sounds???

[purduewx80]

The shortwave responsible for the weekend system is just now coming ashore in western Alaska, so I suspect we'll see a little better model agreement on tonight's 00Z runs, if not today's 12Z, given better sampling.

[CIK62]

The CMC, another big promoter of the upcoming Sat. night action, has cut its snow amount in half, to 4" on the 12Z.   The GFS is less than that.

[MJO812]

Euro is a nice snow event

Nice and cold

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is a nice snow event

Nice and cold

A big increase from 0z.

[MJO812]

I am more worried about suppression then this Storm being amped up.

[SnoSki14]

One thing's for sure, whatever falls will be gone within 24 hours, even faster if amounts are under 3". 

Euro is a furnace next week. 75+

[NEG NAO]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A big increase from 0z.

But close to yesterday's 12Z run - there seems to be solid model consensus t GFS, CMC , Euro at 12 Z that the area will experience at least a light to moderate snowfall 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 in spots

[sferic]

A snow Saturday night/ Sunday Morning I'll take it. A couple to a few inches will be nice. Not every storm can be 1 foot +

 

I remember in the 1960s and 1970s when NOAA would issue "traveler's warnings" for 1 to 3 inches I was thrilled since that era didn't have the frequency of  mega snows as the 2000's have had

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

One thing's for sure, whatever falls will be gone within 24 hours, even faster if amounts are under 3". 

Euro is a furnace next week. 75+

Enjoy it before the blocking pattern takes shape.

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

One thing's for sure, whatever falls will be gone within 24 hours, even faster if amounts are under 3". 

Euro is a furnace next week. 75+

that is some serious warmth for february. 588 heights touching s nj has to be a record

[forkyfork]

if this were summer we'd be talking temps near 90 with those 850's. obviously we're not going to mix that much in february but i wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the mid atlantic hit 80 if this verifies

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

if this were summer we'd be talking temps near 90 with those 850's. obviously we're not going to mix that much in february but i wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the mid atlantic hit 80 if this verifies

wind direction and cloud cover will determine how warm various locations get

[NJwx85]

40 minutes ago, Cuzin Mike said:

So stating a FACT is trolling?  CMC has cut numbers every run, GFS has a chance and Euro looks like a snow event. What is the issue? Wishcasters can not accept facts now?

Your mistake is taking the Canadian seriously. It's a garage model just like the NAM, both of which receive unwarranted favor given there horrendous model skill scoring records. 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Your mistake is taking the Canadian seriously. It's a garage model just like the NAM, both of which receive unwarranted favor given there horrendous model skill scoring records. 

GGEM was the first to pick up on this potential weekend snow event, and it was also the first model to pick up on a few of the snow events we had early in the winter. I don't know about its overall verification scores this season, but it has been doing very well with individual storms. It's definitely a much better model than GFS these days.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

GGEM was the first to pick up on this potential weekend snow event, and it was also the first model to pick up on a few of the snow events we had early in the winter. I don't know about its overall verification scores this season, but it has been doing very well with individual storms. It's definitely a much better model than GFS these days.

Even blind squirrels find nuts.

[NJwx85]

12z EPS mean is 2-4"

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

For all the guys that said no snow for the rest of this month it' okay I don' listen to you guys anyway you guys are always wrong so I'm gonna name some on here...snowski, yanks fan, clk, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple. I opened up a storm thread for the upcoming snowstorm so discuss it there if its not model talk please take it to the banter. And for the naysayers please enough is enough this storm will hit us with at least an advisory level snows. 

Sometimes you can get some thermally forced precipitation or weak cyclogenesis thanks to a well timed shortwave, which is what is occurring this weekend. However, most often not, the area of significant precipitation is narrow, and bust potential is very high.

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, pstar3182 said:

Mods need to regulate some banter

Or we could be at our jobs, and the people who are supposed to be adults could maybe not act like 5 year olds for a few fuking hours. 

[larrye]

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s posts like that, that are ruining this forum. Making a blanket statement saying our last snow chance is March 1-10th more then a month out is ridiculous. Even the best long range forecaster would never make a statement like that. It’s like saying in mid August our last chance for 90s will be September 1-10th. See how silly that sounds???

Honestly? Both seem like pretty good bets to me (not a met). "Last chance" taken literally? Maybe not. Likely to be the last chance for accumulating snow? Maybe. Sure, it happens after March 15. But how often? Baseball season opens the first week in April.

[purduewx80]

20 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Your mistake is taking the Canadian seriously. It's a garage model just like the NAM, both of which receive unwarranted favor given there horrendous model skill scoring records. 

try again. tweeted by maue at almost the same time you made this statment:

[NJwx85]

4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

try again. tweeted by maue at almost the same time you made this statment:

So you cherry picked a five day period where all of the models scored terribly to make a point. If you notice, the blue line (ECMWF) still out performs all other guidance almost consistently, further solidifying my prior statement regarding the superiority of the Euro. 

While the CMC may be outperforming the GFS, that's not really saying much, since I already considered the GFS less useful than a bucket of dog piss.

As useless as the GFS is, it still outperforms the GGEM over the long term.

Edit: Actually upon further examination, the only period in which the GGEM scored better than the GFS was during that five day period in early February and then again in late December. The GFS outscored the GGEM by a wide margin for most of January. I'm not sure what point you were trying to prove by posting a graph which at best only marginally supports your theory.

[NEG NAO]

On ‎2‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 2:53 PM, SnoSki14 said:

West or over, either would result in mostly rain. I am genuinely interested to know what will keep this system S&E of us to deliver mostly snow.