WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 This will be the most underrated snowstorm of the season if it pans out. I always like these bowling bowls underneath us that could give us an easy 4-8 inches. Perfect example a day after Super Bowl a few years back. Central Park got 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nao and AO are becoming favorable We might get lucky here I was just about to type that. The AO and NAO are crossing to negative on the GEFS at this time. This would hopefully limit the northward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: This would be one event that you hope doesn't follow the seasonal trend with the R/S line moving further north in later runs. The pattern is zipping there and with the setup over the lakes this ain’t coming much further north. I think if this pans out most of the interior folks are safe for mostly a winter event. This could be a rain event east of 95 possibly but I don’t see this being able to track far enough west that this becomes a western PA or NY snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Maybe the GGEM wasn't crazy afterall. Perhaps it'll be another win for that model this winter as it was the first to show the potential weekend snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Maybe the GGEM wasn't crazy afterall. Perhaps it'll be another win for that model this winter as it was the first to show the weekend snowstorm. It was also the first model to show the blizzard back in january. It is the best model since it's upgrade back in fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The northward jump in track from 0z is pretty significant. I wish this was a 24 hr forecast instead of 120hr. What's to stop it from trending N&W exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What's to stop it from trending N&W exactly. that it cuts west of us ? - anyways if the Euro is right a lot of people will finally shut their yaps about how bad this winter has been so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: that it cuts west of us ? - anyways if the Euro is right a lot of people will finally shut their yaps about how bad this winter has been so far of course it'll come this weekend just before the torch so it can all melt in 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: of course it'll come this weekend just before the torch so it can all melt in 48 hours doesn't matter the amounts still get recorded in the record books - PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 That’s about the furthest west it can come. I had said over Long Island in the SNE forum. That’s probably still a snow event for people in NW NJ and the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that it cuts west of us ? - anyways if the Euro is right a lot of people will finally shut their yaps about how bad this winter has been so far West or over, either would result in mostly rain. I am genuinely interested to know what will keep this system S&E of us to deliver mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Several of the 12z EPS members have a track right over NYC. In the EURO and CANADIAN we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I do not get the excitement here. The EURO immediately raises the 850mb T by 30 degrees F in just 60 hours, as in the previous run. Looks like a hiccup till several models/runs show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: West or over, either would result in mostly rain. I am genuinely interested to know what will keep this system S&E of us to deliver mostly snow. In this set up, even if it amplifies more than the euro shows and the low goes over or just west of the city, there would still be a good chunk of precip from the WAA ahead of the low which would fall as all or mostly all frozen. By the time the low approaches the city and warms up, they would still see a solid thump. So while yes the city would turn to rain, I wouldn't say they would see mostly rain save for maybe long island. Edit: even see the euro ensembles in which the low is further NW. The city still sees a solid thump of snow before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Several of the 12z EPS members have a track right over NYC. I think the worry is that this bleeds north and the rain snow line sets up at i-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, The Iceman said: In this set up, even if it amplifies more than the euro shows and the low goes over or just west of the city, there would still be a good chunk of precip from the WAA ahead of the low which would fall as all or mostly all frozen. By the time the low approaches the city and warms up, they would still see a solid thump. So while yes the city would turn to rain, I wouldn't say they would see mostly rain save for maybe long island. Edit: even see the euro ensembles in which the low is further NW. The city still sees a solid thump of snow before the changeover. The air is cold at the start for a thump to rain if it comes further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The air is cold at the start for a thump to rain if it comes further west. What is considered a good thump? I don't think 1-3 inches then a quick turn to slop is much to write home about myself.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What is considered a good thump? I don't think 1-3 inches then a quick turn to slop is much to write home about myself.... Snow is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 You guys are being tricked by the 12z run. The pattern is all wrong for snow in these parts. Just take a peak at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 18z german still shows a snow event Gfs trended north Storm looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z german still shows a snow event Gfs trended north Storm looks legit looks like precip is likely - the form it takes is the question here since many don't think it can snow in mid February it seems the key to the forecast is whether that HP sliding by to our north can be blocked just long enough and cold enough air can be be held in here by the LP to its northeast thus forcing the system approaching from the southwest to take a track far enough to our south so warmer air is not drawn north - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Enigma said: You guys are being tricked by the 12z run. The pattern is all wrong for snow in these parts. Just take a peak at 500 mb. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 500mb looks like this could definitely overamplify and cut. The thing saving us right now is some pseudo 50/50 that are allowing the midlevels to not get peeled back and warm. Also, the high in SE Canada appears to be retreating. However, if the 50/50 comes to fruition and the HP would stay locked in place a little longer, the cold air could put up a fight for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 OKX AFD regarding this weekend: Dry weather is then expected as high pressure builds across the area Fri night into Sat. Solutions begin to diverge thereafter, although there is a signal amongst most of the deterministic guidance as well as several members of the GEFS and ECENS of a developing coastal storm due to northern and southern stream phasing energy. The GFS keeps is not phasing the 2 streams together, and thus is resulting in a track well south of the area. However, given the signal from the EC, CMC and members of the GEFS/ECENS, feel it`s prudent to include chc pops at the current time. These phasing systems are always tough and the probability of greater than .5" of liquid equivalent QPF is less than 30% in both the GEFS and ECENS so will keep the mention for a potential heavy snow event out of the HWO for now, although it is certainly a possibility. Any impacts from this system move out quickly Sun morning with another area of high pres building in into Mon. Another frontal system will approach late Mon, keeping unsettled weather in play into the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Weather Channel last several hrs, been really hawking sat storm...potiental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 To me this can range the gamut from too far west and warm for most of us to a weak miss south. It will take some real luck to get the streams to phase in time and the right place for a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me this can range the gamut from too far west and warm for most of us to a weak miss south. It will take some real luck to get the streams to phase in time and the right place for a snow event. Yeah I don't get the excitement, you have a retreating high, a low in the lakes. The temperatures are already barely cold enough to support snow and with 5 days out this could easily trend N&W as most systems have done this season. Our last chance of snow will be in the March 1-10 timeframe and that's if the forecast works out perfectly. We've seen some horrific LR forecasts lately, so extreme caution is warranted. However even if we get the perfect Atlantic blocking pattern, that doesn't guarantee we see snow. It'll be early March so cold will be harder to find, the Pacific looks mostly poor to bad though seasonal wavelength changes may help. It's a crapshoot for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I don't get the excitement, you have a retreating high, a low in the lakes. The temperatures are already barely cold enough to support snow and with 5 days out this could easily trend N&W as most systems have done this season. I’d wait a couple of days before getting excited about any solution. It could easily trend right back to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I don't get the excitement, you have a retreating high, a low in the lakes. The temperatures are already barely cold enough to support snow and with 5 days out this could easily trend N&W as most systems have done this season. Our last chance of snow will be in the March 1-10 timeframe and that's if the forecast works out perfectly. We've seen some horrific LR forecasts lately, so extreme caution is warranted. However even if we get the perfect Atlantic blocking pattern, that doesn't guarantee we see snow. It'll be early March so cold will be harder to find, the Pacific looks mostly poor to bad though seasonal wavelength changes may help. It's a crapshoot for the coast. I nominate this for the worst post ever on this forum. Please explain why our last chance for snow is March 1-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS looks like it went solidly north with the upcoming storm, but the coast is close to going over to rain. To me there’s just way too much that has to go right for anyone to start getting excited yet. This could easily trend to something that favors I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Nice shift on 0z GFS for the interior crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.