UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Gefs are wet too.. but most members hug coast like op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 5:33 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs are wet too.. but most members hug coast like op... Expand Not sticking since they usually follow the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I have no idea what ur talking about lol...picture? Expand This is what I'm talking about , when I click on GFS , Cebile 07s,,,and the others pop up under it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 7:41 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: This is what I'm talking about , when I click on GFS , Cebile 07s,,,and the others pop up under it ? Expand Those are nested model graphics for tropical cyclones across the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 7:41 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: This is what I'm talking about , when I click on GFS , Cebile 07s,,,and the others pop up under it ? Expand I think you are looking at the GFS under the "Hurricane" tab. So it is showing you active storms and invests in the south pacific. Instead click the 'global' tab and use the GFS from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:06 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: 12z Euro? Expand Trended a bit colder (further east with the low)-still rain for coast, but it's now close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 5:45 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Expand I have a sinking feeling this will be a mostly rain event for most if not all of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:41 PM, EastonSN+ said: I have a sinking feeling this will be a mostly rain event for most if not all of the sub forum. Expand It may end up being a non event to be honest. The GFS is the most amped by far and the Euro which has had over amplification problems in the 4-5 day range was way flatter and more than it was on its 00Z run. This could be another seasonal trender to a much weaker system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It may end up being a non event to be honest. The GFS is the most amped by far and the Euro which has had over amplification problems in the 4-5 day range was way flatter and more than it was on its 00Z run. This could be another seasonal trender to a much weaker system Expand Thanks. I just hope we score something large while the pattern is ok. Do the long range models keep the pattern going or break it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:53 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. I just hope we score something large while the pattern is ok. Do the long range models keep the pattern going or break it down? Expand EPS today breaks it down and has a blow torch most of the country at Day 15. I don’t know whether to buy it or not given it would strongly contradict the MJO phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said: EPS today breaks it down and has a blow torch most of the country at Day 15. I don’t know whether to buy it or not given it would strongly contradict the MJO phase. Expand Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:54 PM, SnowGoose69 said: EPS today breaks it down and has a blow torch most of the country at Day 15. I don’t know whether to buy it or not given it would strongly contradict the MJO phase. Expand It would be a massive forecast fail for many who had a cold and snow February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I am prepared for anything at this point and not going to get emotionally invested in any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:58 PM, EastonSN+ said: Ugh Expand Models can't even get a storm right 2 days out. Not to worry just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 9:02 PM, SnoSki14 said: It would be a massive forecast fail for many who had a cold and snow February. Expand MJO don't support that Most likely typical Euro bull**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 8:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It may end up being a non event to be honest. The GFS is the most amped by far and the Euro which has had over amplification problems in the 4-5 day range was way flatter and more than it was on its 00Z run. This could be another seasonal trender to a much weaker system Expand That’s wrong information. The Canadian is the most amped and coldest. I think the cmc depiction only gets stronger and it verifies i95 special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 That was one ugly GFS run for us coasties. Mostly rain changeover events followed by a bad pattern breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Gfs weaker, and much less organized..500 is a mess...weak cut through SNY... snow for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I’d take the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Also someone said earlier the ukie wasn’t really a storm, it drops .5 to 1.0" LE especially for interior, looks a lot like most other guidance it’s more of a frontal wave..not a strong coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 4:59 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Also someone said earlier the ukie wasn’t really a storm, it drops .5 to 1.0" LE especially for interior, looks a lot like most other guidance it’s more of a frontal wave..not a strong coastal Expand I couldn’t see it since meteocentre site died. Sounds like it didn’t change much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:03 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I couldn’t see it since meteocentre site died. Sounds like it didn’t change much Expand yea it looks like **** on an MSLP map, i have the 6 hr precip and total precip maps, pretty robust for such a weak LP, strong wave tho, no idea if its rain or snow, or where tho lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:08 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: yea it looks like **** on an MSLP map, i have the 6 hr precip and total precip maps, pretty robust for such a weak LP, strong wave tho, no idea if its rain or snow, or where tho lol Expand It’s been pretty good the last couple of events. It actually was the most promising tomorrow night top aside from the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:14 AM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s been pretty good the last couple of events. It actually was the most promising tomorrow night top aside from the SREFs Expand euro looks better for tomorrow, wouldnt be surprised to see Eastern LI overperform agin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Morning afd from mt Holly nws is calling for an all snow event Sunday into Monday morning nw zones. “Decent dump of snow” is the term used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:23 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: euro looks better for tomorrow, wouldnt be surprised to see Eastern LI overperform agin Expand LI is a snow magnet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Looks like a ton of rain coming for the coast in February. Active pattern but everything cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 11:30 AM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Looks like a ton of rain coming for the coast in February. Active pattern but everything cuts. Expand Too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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